SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL WARD'S VISIT TO RWANDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L KIGALI 000212 E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2019 TAGS: PREL MASS PGOV ECON EAID SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR GENERAL WARD'S VISIT TO RWANDA Classified By: Amb W. Stuart Symington for reasons 1.4 (b, c, d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Your visit underscores the importance of our relationship with Rwanda, our support for peace and security in the region, and our recognition of Rwanda's leading role as an international peacekeeping force. You will arrive shortly after a week-long national commemoration of the 1994 genocide. Your interlocutors will appreciate it if you note Rwanda's striking progress in reconciliation and development. They may be even more pleased to hear your thoughts on how to build on our partnership in the future. We are working to increase Rwanda's already considerable peacekeeping capacity and to reinforce Rwanda's efforts to achieve regional stability in concert with is neighbors (particularly the Democratic Government of the Congo -- DRC). The Rwanda Defence Forces (RDF) are very effective, as demonstratecd by Rwandan UN peacekeepers in Darfur. We provide those peacekeepers vital assistance. In separate visits with a U.S. Senate delegation last week, both President Kagame and the Minister of Defense underscored the importance of our contributions. Earlier, Chief of Defense Kabarebe quietly thanked the U.S. for having worked for years to bring Rwandan and DRC interloctors together in multilateral talks. That opened lines of communication, he said, and helped make possible Rwanda's and the DRC's cooperation in landmark joint military action against the remnants of the forces that carried out the genocide and that still terrorize Congolese populations, the so-called "Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda" (FDLR). ¶2. (C) That joint action precipitated a significant return to Rwanda of FDLR fighters and their families, pushed the FDLR from its income sources, and weakened its command. More significantly, it built new ties between the Government of Rwanda (GOR) and the DRC and demonstrated to many Rwandans and Congolese the potential benefits of partnering with the neighboring country. Kabarebe added that, after the operation, the immediate challenge in the DRC is to insure the security of civilian populations and quickly promote development. At home, Rwanda has reduced its military to focus resources on development. It seeks to serve as a hub of an integrated East African and Central African area. It aims, by 2020, to have achieved a substantial increase in per ;capita income and quality of life, by investing in health, education, infrastructure, agriculture, and service industries. In 2008, the United States was Rwanda's largest bilateral donor, focusing on health and development. In addition, a U.S. energy investor just became Rwanda's largest foreign investor after signing a 325 million dollar agreement to produce electricity from methane gas found in the waters of Lake Kivu. Finally, after a 15-year absence, the Peace Corps has returned. Our new volunteers will be sworn in just before you arrive. We are excited to see AFRICOM poised to expand USG cooperation. The RDF will be particularly interested in discussing Darfur operations, future challenges in eastern Congo, and your vision for AFRICOM engagement with Rwanda. End Summary. Regional Issues -------------- ¶3. (C) Relations with Neighbors: Relations between Rwanda and the DRC are better now than at any time since the genocide convulsed the region in 1994. The joint January 20- February 25 military operation ("Umoja Wetu" or "Our Unity") QFebruary 25 military operation ("Umoja Wetu" or "Our Unity") had both political and military objectives. Politically, it demonstrated the benefits of acting in partnership with each other. That lesson, and the confidence it engendered, may soon lead to the re-establishment of diplomatic relations between the GOR and DRC. It was a first, significant step towards reducing still-strong suspicion and creating confidence between the governments and their respective populations. On the military front, the Congolese Army (FARDC) and the RDF worked well together to reduce the FDLR's capacity to hold Congolese populations in its power and to threaten Rwanda's security. During the five-week long operation, over 750 FDLR cadre were killed or returned voluntarily to Rwanda under a demobilization/reintegration program, which degraded the FDLR capabilities in North Kivu. The FDLR, however, still has the capacity to be a negative force in the region. It has regained already some of the areas it lost during the joint operation. The two governments continue their intensive bilateral discussions under what is referred to as the "Four Plus Four" rubric. The USG-facilitated Tripartite-Plus Joint Commission, which met most recently in December 2008 in Kigali, continues to provide a venue for multi-party discussions on regional security cooperation. Elsewhere in the region, Uganda and Rwanda enjoy their most positive relations in years, and there is an increasing focus on energy and other development cooperation between Rwanda and Burundi. ¶4. (SBU) Peacekeeping Mission in Darfur: The RDF now ranks as the sixth largest troop contributor to UN peacekeeping operations worldwide. The RDF currently has four battalions (3200 troops) deployed in Darfur with the United Nations African Mission in Darfur (UNAMID),and has 254 troops in Khartoum under the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS). The USG has been providing logistical and training support for the Rwandan contribution to peacekeeping efforts in Sudan since initial deployment in August 2004. American contractors under the Africa Contingency Operations Training Assistance (ACOTA) program (Rwanda became a full ACOTA partner in June 2006) have conducted training for nearly twenty battalions in preparation for the Darfur deployments. We recently provided $30 million in new equipment for these battalions as well as established a peacekeeping simulation center. The USG has provided airlift of equipment and personnel to Darfur many times. The RDF has been quite critical at times of the U.N. bureaucracy, particularly on the subject of equipment transport to Darfur. ¶5. (C) The current Deputy Force Commander, RDF General Karenzi Karake is scheduled to depart Darfur at the end of April. We understand that the Rwandans will seek the Force Commander position when it opens up later in the year. Last year, a Spanish judge questionably indicted most of the RDF senior leadership for alleged war crimes purportedly committed in the aftermath of the 1994 genocide. That indictment has drawn wide criticism for its unjudicious tone and hotly-contested evidentiary basis. Several have also been indicted by a French judge in 2006. Rwandans reject these indictments as unfounded, and Presidential Director of Protocol Rose Kabuye is now actively contesting her indictment by a French court. These indictments limit the RDF's ability to compete for senior peacekeeping command slots. Domestic Issues -------------- ¶6. (C) Although Rwanda is a highly stable country, it is still struggling to overcome the legacy of the devastating 1994 genocide when upwards of one million Rwandans lost their lives, and the nation's infrastructure, economy and society were terribly damaged. Today, as the Government commemorates the 15th anniversary of the tragedy, it is deeply committed to forging national unity through the reconciliation of Rwanda's ethnic groups. It has made great strides restoring security and establishing the underpinnings of a developing democracy. The economy has been largely rebuilt, but Rwanda has far to go to reach its goal of becoming the Singapore of Africa. Private investment is crucial to achieving that goal. Even more vital is ensuring that all Rwandans see themselves as having an equal opportunity to benefit from Rwanda's growth. After the war, Rwanda's motto was, simply, "never again." Fifteen years later, the imperative to ensure there is never again a genocide continues to drive many Rwandans and motivates their emphasis on security. Nonetheless, winning widespread belief in Rwanda's second motto, "We are all Rwandans," is a challenge. A compelling call to unity, the motto challenges Rwandans to see themselves as one group and to find security against new violence against any group in the equal protection of all. Youth increasingly embrace the second motto, but a QYouth increasingly embrace the second motto, but a generational change -- and signficant economic, social, and political development -- will be needed before most Rwandans fully embrace the unity reflected in "we are all Rwandan." To help Rwanda move in that direction, in addition to our health, development, education, security, and other work, we are working with the GOR to implement a three-year, $25 million Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Threshold Country Plan focused on media, justice, the police, and civil society. ¶7. (C) Political Issues: Elected to a seven year term in 2003, President Kagame is eligible to compete for one more term in 2010 and is widely expected to do so. In September 2008, Rwanda elected 80 members of its Chamber of Deputies. The ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front and its six coalition partners won 79 percent of the vote. Those elections gave Rwanda the first majority female parliament in the world (55 percent). The elections were peaceful and orderly, with a heavy turnout. A June 2007 law liberalized political party operations, although some constitutional and regulatory restrictions on political party operations remain in place. The use of broadly-worded criminal statutes sanctioning "divisionism" and "genocide ideology" concern the human rights community. Other human rights concerns include lingering restrictions on press freedom, a judicial system still hampered by capacity limitations, and bureaucratic licensing requirements for civic groups. Pending legislation may ease the burden on civic groups and, perhaps, increase press freedom. In 2009, a U.S.-funded program to build political party capacity succeeded in sparking unprecedented dialog among political parties focused on party organization and message formulation. Those efforts may have a lasting effect improving partisan political activity. ¶8. (C) Justice and the Genocide: Over one million suspected "genocidaires" (those who participated in the 1994 genocide) were the subject of judicial inquiry by "gacaca courts," a traditional court system modernized and expanded by the GOR. Almost all those pending cases have now been adjudicated by approximately 3,000 gacaca courts. The gacaca service is optimistic that it can finish all cases including appeals by the end of 2009. The GOR decreed in 2007 that gacaca prisoners would serve their suspended and community service sentences first and return to prison at a later date. Thanks to the decision to postpone service of prison time, Rwanda's enormous post-war prison population has diminished, alleviating unsustainably crowded conditions. A relatively small number of the most serious genocide offenders will be judged by the regular courts, not gacaca. Most of those convicted of genocide-related offenses are again living in their communities, often near neighbors who were survivors of genocide or whose families were victims. Today, less than 30,000 people are in prison on genocide charges. The result has been to shift the focus on reconciliation from prisons to villages. As a result, delicate, difficult, and painful interactions are unfolding daily throughout the country as Rwandans adjust to living with the legacy of genocide. The gacaca courts were the GOR's principal means to achieve justice and reconciliation -- a difficult policy balance -- given Rwanda's history of ethnic animosities. It will likely take years to assess the impact of the gacaca trials on national reconciliation. It is clear, however, that not all of those who were convicted of crimes are repentant. Resolving lingering animosity and hatred, at the village and national level, is likely to take several generations. ¶9. (SBU) Democracy and Governance Programs: USG programs focus on local government and reconciliation. We are supporting decentralized governance through an innovative program to achieve health and governance objectives by acting to improve local government's capacity to manage funds and deliver high quality health services. This program is complemented by capacity building programs for local civil society organizations. On rule of law issues, we are helping the Ministry of Justice and other government officials to improve the quality of draft legislation. We also support provision of legal aid services to the poor and other vulnerable groups, helping to ensure equitable access to justice. We fund youth radio for peace and reconciliation through a Great Lakes regional initiative. That enables youth to take an active role contributing to peace and reconciliation in their communities. A new project implemented by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) is working with political parties to build their capacity for the 2010 elections. ¶10. (SBU) Millennium Challenge Corporation Country Threshold Program: Rwanda was selected in 2006 for the Threshold QProgram: Rwanda was selected in 2006 for the Threshold program. The GOR Country Plan was approved by the MCC Investment Committee in July 2008; the final agreement was signed in October 2008. USAID is in the process of procuring four projects (supporting the police, strengthening the media, aiding civic participation, and developing the justice sector) to implement the three-year, $25 million Threshold Country Program. The Program is intended to improve Rwanda's scores on three MCC Ruling Justly indicators: civil liberties, political rights and voice and accountability. ¶11. (SBU) Economic Development: Rwanda achieved an average GDP growth rate of 6 percent over the past six years. In 2008, the GDP grew 11.2 percent to approximately $4 billion. Inflation has risen substantially given high energy costs and large donor inflows, though efforts to reduce the cost of electricity are underway. Exports are dominated by coffee, tea and minerals which in 2008 represented $200 million, or 70 percent of total exports. Tourism earned an additional $243 million in foreign exchange during the year. The government seeks to establish Rwanda as a regional economic hub bridging the Francophone west and Anglophone east. It has achieved major improvements in the areas of tax collection, banking, trade agreements, anti-corruption, and fiscal policy. It has improved infrastructure throughout the country, and maintained a low corruption rate relative to neighboring countries. In February 2008, President Bush and President Kagame signed a Bilateral Investment Treaty aimed at encouraging investment and trade between the United States and Rwanda. However, daunting development challenges remain. The economy is small, relatively isolated, there is poor infrastructure, and a lack of a trained workforce. The economy remains largely dependent upon foreign aid (roughly half of its budget comes from donors). 85 percent of families earn their living through subsistence agriculture and a majority of households live below the poverty line of 250 Rwandan francs a day (about $0.45). ¶12. (SBU) U.S. Investment: In March 2009, American energy company Contour Global signed a $325 million project with the government to extract methane gas from Lake Kivu to provide 100MW of electricity to the national grid. This is the largest foreign private sector investment in Rwanda's history and promises to significantly improve the availability and cost of electricity. Other American investments include interest in tea, coffee, and mining. Over the past eight years, the USG has invested an estimated $12 million in promoting and developing the Rwandan coffee industry, building and rehabilitating coffee washing stations, training farmers and "cuppers" (coffee tasters),organizing cooperatives, encouraging banks to lend to Rwandan investors to build coffee washing stations, and improving rural infrastructure. Today, Rwandan coffee has become known as one of the "best of the best" coffees in the world. Rwanda exported 4,200 tons of specialty coffee in 2008. ¶13. (SBU) Poverty Reduction: The GOR has made efforts, with measurable results, to reduce poverty and to improve access to health care and education, despite its severely limited resources. It has focussed considerable resources and attention on the agricultural sector, improving farm production and income, and greatly enhanced the quality of farm to market roads and the distribution of health centers and schools in rural areas. It has also implemented plans for the prevention, protection, and reintegration of the 7,000 street children in the country (out of 4.8 million children). These include vocational training to promote self-reliance through development of income-generating skills. Rwanda completed the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) debt relief initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative in 2006. Completion of these two debt initiatives significantly reduced its overall debt, freeing significant funds for social programs. Rwanda continues to face challenges to food security from cyclic rainfall shortages. ¶14. (SBU) Global Health: Rwanda is one of 15 "focus countries" under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR). The national HIV prevalence rate is approximately 3.0 percent (3.6 percent for women, 2.3 percent for men). A 2005 survey suggests that women are contracting HIV/AIDS at a younger age than men, and that for both sexes prevalence in urban areas is approximately three times higher than in rural areas. Through PEPFAR and Global Fund support, Rwanda has increased the number of facilities offering services for prevention of mother-to-child transmission from 53 to 318, and voluntary counseling and testing from 44 to ¶3345. Rwanda has achieved 70 percent coverage of those in need of anti-retroviral treatment. This is one of the highest rates in sub-Saharan Africa, and can be directly linked to the significant geographic expansion of HIV/AIDS services. Rwanda has also completed a national roll-out of performance-based financing as an incentive for improved health care delivery, and built the capacity of local Qhealth care delivery, and built the capacity of local organizations to manage and implement HIV/AIDS programs. FY08 PEPFAR funding for Rwanda exceeded $123 million. FY09 funding is expected to be at similar levels. The RDF has been a leader in HIV/AIDS programs for military forces in Africa, and has several innovative programs underway to protect its men and women. ¶15. (SBU) Malaria: In addition, Rwanda is a President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) country. In 2006, the number of uncomplicated malaria cases treated in public sector health facilities was 1.3 million. By mid-FY08, it decreased to 900,000 cases. Given this reduced incidence malaria has now dropped down to second place as the leading cause of morbidity and mortality among children under five in Rwanda. Much of this success is attributed to the use of indoor-residual spraying and insecticide-treated bed nets funded by USAID. During FY08, a spraying campaign treated 200,000 houses or more than 900,000 people (approximately 10 percent of the population). PMI funding for in FY08 was $17 million; FY09 funding is expected at similar levels. The Mission also implements successful programs in child survival, maternal and child health, reproductive health and family planning. These programs have annual budgets of $11.8 million. ¶16. (C) Comment: You are visiting Rwanda when many see the country at a positive tipping point, despite concerns about regional stability and the global crisis. They note significant improvements in economic growth, health, educational opportunities, infrastructure, regional security, and regional integration. Rwandans have reason to be optimistic. Their raprochement with the DRC is a watershed. Building a partnership with the DRC that leads to a stable and secure DRC (and eastern Congo) is absolutely essential to Rwanda's own long-term economic growth and to the prospects of all Rwandans and their neighbors. Economic growth and social justice are at the core of Rwanda's prospect for lasting reconciliation. To stay on course, Rwanda needs to strong private sector investment and donor-aided spending on social services and development programs. If Rwandans see improvement in their quality of life and evidence of fair and equal treatment, then it is likely that the cohesion reflected in reconciliation over the past 15v years will be sustained. End Comment. SYMINGTON