MALAKAL REMAINS DIVIDED AND COMBUSTIBLE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000980 SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2016 TAGS: PGOV PINR KPKO MCAP MOPS SU SUBJECT: MALAKAL REMAINS DIVIDED AND COMBUSTIBLE REF: KHARTOUM 375 Classified By: Classified by: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Malakal, capital of Upper Nile State and site of serious February clashes between components of the local Joint Integrated Unit (JIU),remains divided and combustible. In a meeting on August 19, Deputy Governor of Upper Nile State Dok Jok (SPLM) told POLOFF that "the idea of partnership in government is not working." He said that Malakal is divided between the JIU's Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) component and Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) component, and that the "security situation is declining." If Jok's statements can be accepted at face value, the experiment of shared government is floundering in Upper Nile State and there is significant risk of another round of violence in Malakal. End Summary. Deputy Governor: Partnership Not Working -------------- ¶2. (C) Deputy Governor Jok said that the security situation in Malakal is declining. He stated that the town is divided, with the SAF JIU component controlling the northern side of Malakal and the SPLA JIU component controlling the southern side. He said that, even though he is Deputy Governor, he is not safe passing through areas of Malakal controlled by the SAF. Jok said that moving the JIUs outside of Malakal is not a solution to the problem, and that he would like the JIUs out of Upper Nile State altogether. He said the SAF JIU component is composed of militia, not SAF soldiers, and that the government in Khartoum could use these militia to incite fighting in Malakal at any time. ¶3. (C) Deputy Governor Jok stated that "the idea of partnership in government is not working" and that as long as the Governor of Upper Nile State is from the National Congress Party (NCP) "things will not go well." (Note: Upper Nile State is the only state in southern Sudan where, pursuant to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, the Governor is appointed by the NCP. End Note) In response to a question from Poloff, Jok acknowledged that the Governor is trying to replace him. He said that he can only be removed with the agreement of Salva Kiir, and that there is therefore no risk of his actually being removed. He noted, however, that the Governor nonetheless is trying to create confrontation within the SPLM by sowing confusion and rumors. (Note: UNMIS Chief of Civil Affairs, Rose Sakala told POLOFF that the Governor's push to unseat the Deputy Governor is based on Jok having installed a new cabinet in the Governor's absence, in violation of the state constitution. End Note) Regarding the Government of National Unity (GNU),Jok said that it is "just a northern government" and that Salva Kiir cannot do much within the GNU except try to maintain peace. Cease-fire Terms Ignored; Soldiers Remain -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In a separate meeting with POLOFF on August 19, Co-Commanders of the Malakal JIU, General John Monykuer (SPLA) and Colonel Fadallah Ismail Musa (SAF),confirmed that the soldiers involved in the February 2009 and November 2006 fighting remain in the Malakal JIU. (Note: The ceasefire signed in connection with the February clashes called for a full rotation of the Malakal JIU out of the area. End Note) Colonel Musa stated that the primary restraint on rotating the soldiers to other JIUs in the cost of moving them. He said that he and General Monykuer have requested funding for the rotation from their command but have not received it. General Monykuer stated that the local JIU components have not conducted any joint training because they do not have a joint training protocol. UNMIS Chief: Situation Calm But Unpredictable -------------- ¶5. (C) Rose Sakala, Chief of Civil Affairs for Sector 3 of the UN Mission in Sudan (UNMIS),characterized the situation in Malakal as "calm but unpredictable" in an interview on August 19. She stated that Malakal is divided, with the southern part of town controlled by the SPLA JIU component, and the northern area, including the airport, controlled by the SAF JIU component. She stated that the SAF JIU component conducts check points at night on the most direct route from KHARTOUM 00000980 002.2 OF 002 the airport to the town, and that because of intimidation, local civilians avoid that road. She added that she avoids using that road for the same reason. She stated that the SAF JIU component is eighty percent former militia fighters who are loyal only to their former militia leader, General Gabriel Tanginya, and cannot be controlled by the SAF. Regarding plans to move the JIU to a joint location outside of Malakal, Sakala questioned whether the SAF JIU component would willingly move from its current strategic location adjacent to the airport. ¶6. (C) Comment: Jok, a SPLA bush fighter for over twenty years and current Chairman of the SPLM in Upper Nile State, is clearly partisan and suspicious of any action taken by the north. Even when accounting for partisan bias, however, Jok's statements and the current political wrangling indicate that NCP/SPLM co-governance is not flourishing in Upper Nile State. Given that the two groups of soldiers who have already fought each other twice remain in Malakal, with no serious efforts being made to peacefully integrate them, Malakal could again flare into violence with minor provocations. WHITEHEAD