YASSIR ARMAN: REFERENDUM LAW IMPASSE AND POPULAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000965 NSC FOR MGAVIN AND LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI EAID PHUM AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: YASSIR ARMAN: REFERENDUM LAW IMPASSE AND POPULAR CONSULTATION LEGISLATION REF: A) KHARTOUM 952 B) KHARTOUM 905 C) KHARTOUM 743 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In an August 10 meeting, Deputy Secretary General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)'s Northern Sector and SPLM National Assembly Caucus Chairman, Yassir Arman, said SPLM believes national legislation is necessary to conduct popular consultations in Blue Nile and South Kordofan, decried NCP obstructionism in negotiating the stalemate over the Referendum bill, rejected the census as a basis for the elections, and commented on delays in Vice President Kiir's travel. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Arman briefed PolOffs on First Vice President and President of the Government of Southern Sudan Salva Kiir's August 9 meeting with President Bashir and Second Vice President Taha. The meeting was a follow up to commitments made in the Special Envoy's trilateral talks to address critical issues at a high political level. The meeting focused on implementation of the Permanent Court of Arbitration decision on Abyei. Kiir and Bashir agreed to form technical committees to implement the Abyei decision. Both parties agreed to nominate members to the committees. Arman noted that the Border Commission issues (Ref. A) and Referendum law were brought up, but nothing came of the brief discussions. -------------- Arman: Law Needed for Popular Consultation -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Arman told PolOffs that national legislation will be necessary for the popular consultations in Blue Nile and South Kordofan states. (NOTE: The CPA is unclear if National Legislation is required. It essentially leaves it up to the parties to decide. The SPLM's interprets the CPA's language as requiring national level legislation. This SPLM interpretation is new. END NOTE.) The SPLM's reasoning is that, without the "national commitment" to the popular consultation process that will come from passing legislation, there is the risk that the NCP will fail to recognize as legitimate the end result of any process that does take place, especially if the end result is unfavorable to their interests. Arman acknowledged that the requirement for legislation will add to the extensive list of bills that the National Assembly must pass during the brief October through December legislative session. �A; -------------- Referendum Law Impasse -------------- ¶4. (SBU) There has been no progress in the negotiations on the Referendum bill, Arman said (Ref. A). He accused National Assembly speaker Ahmed Ibrahim Al-Tahir of working to "make secession difficult" for the South. He was also critical of Badria Suleiman, Chairperson of the National Assembly's Legal Affairs Committee, who he claimed has put impediments in the path of negotiations, and who he said is taking a "hard line." Arman was particularly troubled by her remarks that she would like to "make unity attractive by law" thereby insinuating that the Assembly would produce an unworkable or problem-laden referendum, calling the remarks "dangerous." ¶5. (SBU) Arman applauded the Special Envoy's successes in refocusing the parties and the international community on the CPA. However, he cautioned that the NCP "knows Americans and will tell them whatever they want to hear." He was hopeful that with clear objectives, the Special Envoy will successfully resolve some outstanding issues. -------------- --- Census Results Necessitate Demarcation Rejection -------------- --- ¶6. (SBU) Moving on to the census, Arman adamantly rejected the census results as a basis for demarcation of constituencies in the Northern Sector as well as the rest of the country. He reiterated that the SPLM will not accept the census and they will not accept demarcation and delimitation of constituencies of the border based on the census results. Arman said the NCP had rejected out of hand a number of proposed solutions to the census problem. -------------- -------------- NCP Threatens to Lift Arman's Legislative Immunity -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Arman said that his comments about the Public Order Police (POP) (NOTE: Arman supposedly accused the POP of "taking advantage of the women they arrest and bargain with them for their honor and exploit their fear from their families" END NOTE.),have resulted in efforts by the NCP to lift the immunity from prosecution that Arman enjoys as a legislator. He defended his comments as part of his job as a legislator. In that role, Arman believes the "indecent KHARTOUM 00000965 002 OF 002 dress" law (Ref. B) should be amended or repealed. Arman noted he stands in solidarity with Lubna Hussein, a women currently standing trial for violating the law by wearing pants, and who has made a public stand to challenge and repeal the law. Only the Speaker of the National Assembly has the right to lift another member's immunity and only after an investigation, Arman said, but the Speaker is an NCP member. Arman also said that the POP may pose problems during the election because they operate at the political will of the ruling party. ¶8. (SBU) Arman confirmed that First Vice President Kiir's travel to Blue Nile State on August 11 took place, but that travel to North and South Darfur would be delayed due to an SPLM political bureau meeting and the start of Ramadan. (NOTE: Kiir's trips, which are sensitive and stir up controversy with the NCP, are often delayed. END NOTE.) ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: Arman, a member of the SPLM's inner circle, seemed unconcerned about crafting a strategy to deal with stalemates on the divisive issues with which he is charged. On the contrary, we suspect he is one of the drivers of remaining SPLM sticking points that have prevented the elections and referenda processes from moving forward. WHITEHEAD