SPLM DEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL ANNE ITTO ON BASHIR, THE ICC,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000093 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM DEPUTY SECRETARY GENERAL ANNE ITTO ON BASHIR, THE ICC, AND ELECTIONS KHARTOUM 00000093 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Following a SPLM Political Bureau meeting to discuss impending ICC indictments against GNU President Omar Bashir, Consul General met with SPLM Deputy Secretary General Anne Itto on January 22 to discuss the results of the party's deliberations. In the course of the meeting, Itto expressed her deep distrust of NCP intentions, possible plans for the SPLM to engage on ending the violence in Darfur, and her firm support for holding elections in ¶2009. End Summary ¶2. (SBU) According to Itto, the SPLM believes the most likely outcome of ICC indictments (which she termed "inevitable") is that the NCP will not over-react, but rather will be "clever" in seeking to avoid Bashir's arrest. One likely strategy will be for the NCP to attempt to fix upcoming elections in order to "democratically" legitimize Bashir's hold on power. "The NCP will want to hang on at all costs," Itto said. However, she added, "The NCP is an animal that is unpredictable, and a violent reaction to the indictments is also an outcome that the SPLM and the international community must be prepared to deal with." ¶3. (SBU) Given their uncertainty over what to expect, Itto said the party agreed to create a "Crisis Management Committee" whose task will be to monitor how the NCP reacts following the indictments in order to be able to quickly and efficiently take "necessary action." Asked if that meant that the GOSS might consider a Unilateral Declaration of Independence for the South should the NCP turn violent, Itto gave an emphatic "No." "We will stay within the CPA and continue to work toward the 2011 referendum." ¶4. (SBU) Concerning the SPLM position on the ICC, Itto said the party will not stand in the path of justice. "We are telling the NCP not to reject, but to engage with the ICC to find a way through the crisis." They could, for instance, use local courts to hold trials in ways that might satisfy the ICC. Itto noted that Bashir brought this problem on himself when he failed to engage the ICC following the first round of indictments related to Darfur (for Ali Kushayb and Ahmed Haroun). Had the NCP established a legal structure to try indictees internally then, it would have created a precedent for use now. Instead, in typical fashion, the NCP took a bullying attitude, making excuses for itself that only e.sured nurther psob,ems* Vo(sohvu this ri3is,$Q|to(ai ueujto ecca|me SM8bcerPeQwkDm@xkU.Qfs`oQpGl`SnmQkQa,QKq$Qx^% (`Js#~%AoQQA?2 (r,Q}h549;0