GHAZI SALAHEDDIN TELLS REPRESENTATIVE ELLISON: "WE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000917 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S, AF/C, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2019 TAGS: KPKO PGOV PHUM PREL SOCI UN AU SU SUBJECT: GHAZI SALAHEDDIN TELLS REPRESENTATIVE ELLISON: "WE ARE READY TO LISTEN TO THE CONGRESS" REF: A. A) KHARTOUM 905 ¶B. B) KHARTOUM 888 Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In an August 5 conversation with Congressman Keith Ellison, Presidential Adviser and National Congress party (NCP) intellectual Dr. Ghazi Salaheddin said he is open to visits by anyone seeking to engage with the regime, including members of the U.S. Congress and the Darfur advocacy community. He praised Special Envoy (SE) Scott Gration's efforts to unite Darfuri rebel factions, but dismissed rebel leaders as "two-bit politicians." Ghazi stated that the NCP is content with the Permanent Court of Arbitration's (PCA) Abyei border demarcation decision, and that the regime is keeping the pro-GoS Misseriya on a tight leash. However, he predicted that if the South becomes independent through the 2011 Referendum, the Abyei region could "become another Kashmir." He criticized what he characterized as the Government of Southern Sudan's (GOSS's) "corruption" and "incompetency", arguing that independence would make it a "guaranteed failed-state." He said the Lubna Hussein trousers case (see reftels) was likely the mis-application of law by a rogue junior officer, and he complained about the resultant bad press. Ghazi pledged the GoS's commitment to work with the U.S. Congress to improve US-Sudan relations. Representative Ellison promised to arrange meetings for Dr. Ghazi with other Members of Congress when Ghazi travels to the United States in October to participate in the UN General Assembly (UNGA). END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) On August 5, 2009, U.S. Representative Keith Ellison met with Dr. Ghazi Salaheddin, Presidential Adviser in charge of the regime's Darfur portfolio and the head of the NCP's delegation to SE Scott Gration's trilateral (NCP/SPLM/USG) negotiation mechanism. Dr. Ghazi told Ellison that the NCP understands the need to seek the backing of the U.S. Congress in order to make progress on the removal of Sudan from the List of State Sponsors of Terrorism. "We need to tell our side of the story. We have been unfairly portrayed as sworn enemies of the United States. We can be good friends and work together on many issues. Easing tensions with the United States increases the chances for peace in Darfur and between Sudan and Chad." With respect to SE Gration's recent Congressional testimony, Ghazi noted, "We are not involved in terrorism anywhere in the world. On the contrary we combat terrorism." ¶3. (C) Rep. Ellison commended Ghazi's efforts to reach out to Congress, which he said must legislate or approve changes in U.S. sanctions policy toward Sudan. Ghazi stated that the Government of Sudan (GOS) welcomes to additional visits by other members of Congress and from members of the Darfur advocacy community, including visits to Darfur. He added said that Rebecca Hamilton of the Save Darfur Coalition will soon travel to Sudan. Congressman Ellison offered to arrange a meeting for Dr. Ghazi with members of Congress in late September, when Ghazi will be in the United States to attend the UN General Assembly (UNGA). Ghazi maintained that that since 2004, violence in Darfur has plummeted, and that most deaths in Darfur in 2008 were the result of clashes between rebel groups and did not involve GOS forces. Ghazi agreed with Rep. Ellison that a sustainable peace agreement is crucial to ending the cycle of violence in Darfur. ¶4. (C) Ghazi said that the regime is "committed to the Doha process", but lamented the splintering of the Darfuri rebel movements into 12-15 factions. "That is why we have supported Gration's attempt to re-unite the factions in Libya. We are trying our best to help these people come to the negotiating table." Ghazi argued that the actual Darfur issues up for debate--whether Darfur will be defined as one or three states, how to compensate victims, how to conduct resettlement--could be easily negotiated, but the Darfuri rebel leaders "lack political will to reach a settlement." Some of the leaders are "two-bit politicians," he declared. He said Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) leader Khalid Ibrahim's political ambitions were too great to make him amenable to a negotiated agreement. Ghazi continued that SLM/AW's Paris-based leader Abdel-Wahid Al Nur said "no to every proposal." Despite what he described as the intransigence of the rebel leaders, Ghazi said, "We are happy with UNAMID," and noted that its' current force had reached KHARTOUM 00000917 002 OF 003 19,000. (Note. UNAMID JSR Rodolphe Adada has offered a lower number, about 72 percent of total approved deployment. End note.) ¶5. (C) Ghazi said that the timely completion of national elections scheduled for April 2010 would depend on the South's Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). He stated the NCP needed the elections because "they can give us legitimacy." He added "....not that we are champions of democracy, but we don't want to go down in history as the party that led to a divided Sudan without having electoral legitimacy." He claimed that SPLM "waffling" on national elections was due to its lack of internal consensus on the utility of this exercise, since "many in the SPLM ask why have a national election in 2010 if there will be a referendum on self-determination in 2011." Rep. Ellison expressed hope that elections would be held as scheduled, because "they can play an important role in achieving peace and stability." Ghazi added that SPLM rejection of the 2008 census results, which determine parliamentary representation, was another major challenge to timely elections. He said that the SPLM claimed that the census figure of 21 percent for South Sudan's share of the national population was an undercount and that the figure should be 30 percent, Ghazi countered, however, that the census had been a technical process conducted in the presence of UN monitors, and that that the GOSS had conducted its own polling. The census results should not be adjusted for "political" reasons, he said. ¶6. (C) On the Comprehensive Peace Agreement's (CPA) provision for a 2011 Referendum in the South on unity or secession, Ghazi admitted that the majority of Southern Sudanese would probably vote for secession if the referendum were held now. Cooperation with the SPLM would be needed for a unionist victory. He criticized the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) for what he said were s failures to build structures of governance. He warned that a landlocked, tribally-divided and incompetent GoSS would be a "guaranteed failed-state." Ghazi said that despite considerable GoSS autonomy; receipt of 30 percent of national revenues totaling seven billion U.S. dollars since 2005; and an independent legislature, judiciary and national army, "there is no infrastructure, no development, and the soldiers receive no salaries. The money goes in private pockets and into dubious trade deals. They do not even have an auditor." He pledged, however, that "if the decision is succession, we want to work hand-in-hand with them to make it an amicable one." ¶7. (C) Dr. Ghazi called the peaceful outcome of The Hague's PCA on demarcation of Abyei's borders "an important achievement made by Special Envoy Gration." He said the decision was not fair for the Misseriya, because they were denied access to their full water rights. Although the agreement conferred secondary water rights on those Misseriya within Dinka territory, this made them "second-class citizens." He granted that while the Misseriya were content because the agreement allotted them the Heglig oil field, they "can't drink oil". Despite this critique, he said the NCP would abide by the ruling: "there is no alternative but to accept it," he concluded. Ghazi told Congressman Ellison that the NCP had informed the Misseriya that if they decided to fight the Dinka, they would have to fight alone. "It would be a massacre, because the SPLM has greater firepower," Ghazi said the NCP had warned the Misseriya. However, if the South seceded and established an international border, there could be renewed violence, Ghazi warned. The area could end up "like Kashmir or Hamesh Koreib" (Note: the latter is the disputed territory between Sudan and Egypt. End Note.) ¶8. (C) Rep. Ellison raised the case of Lubna Hussein, a Sudanese UN employee arrested for wearing trousers and facing charges in Khartoum Public Order Court, that could result in a sentence of lashing. Representative Ellison noted that the case reflected badly not only on Sudan, but also on Muslim society in general Dr. Ghazi said that the arrest was likely the act of a "rogue junior officer applying the law incorrectly" and agreed that the case "has nothing to do with Islam." He said that he could not interfere with the court process, but would confer with the prosecutor at the Ministry of Justice, to see if the matter might be withdrawn. He blamed the media for spinning up the story, complaining "things like this happen all over the world." KHARTOUM 00000917 003 OF 003 ¶9. (C) COMMENT: Dr. Ghazi's openness to future visits by members of Congress and representatives from the Darfur advocacy community signals the regime's desire to build support for removal of Sudan from the State Sponsors of Terrorism list, and for the lifting of sanctions. Whether the regime will allow its most vocal critics to visit remains to be seen. Ghazi is the NCP's chief Darfur specialist, and his comments would seem to indicate that the regime is open to a comprehensive deal on Darfur. On 2010 elections, Ghazi accurately notes the SPLM's conundrum: competing in national elections ties the SPLM closer to a government from which many SPLM leaders hope to separate in 2011. Moreover, the North has yet to deliver a vision that would make unity attractive. Ghazi's complaint that the regime had been unfairly criticized for the "trousers case" is a sign that the Government of Sudan has not lost its penchant for blaming the media and international community for its negative image rather than addressing the root causes of that image. We do not buy the "rogue junior officer" rhetoric. END COMMENT. Congressman Ellison did not clear this message before his departure. WHITEHEAD