CHADIAN REBELS WITHDRAW BUT MILITARY TENSIONS REMAIN ON

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000890 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: CHADIAN REBELS WITHDRAW BUT MILITARY TENSIONS REMAIN ON SUDAN'S WESTERN BORDER REF: A) KHARTOUM 591 B) KHARTOUM 888 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a July 29 meeting in Khartoum, United des Forces de la Resistance (UFR) Chadian rebel commander Mahamat Hanno claimed that UFR President Timane Erdimi and the UFR commanders have returned to Khartoum. UFR combatants have reportedly withdrawn from the border but have not disarmed. Meanwhile, this week near Kulbus, West Darfur, Chadian ANT patrols twice raised alarm within Sudan. The incidents have resulted in increased tension but no reported casualties. -------------- UFR PULLS BACK, STILL ARMED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Speaking with poloff on July 29, Hanno claimed that Chadian rebel commanders from United des Forces de la Resistance (UFR) had returned to Khartoum, including Hanno's close associate UFR President Timane Erdimi. Currently, UFR combatants remain in their camps inside Darfur, and have withdrawn from the Chadian border, but Hanno would not say how far they have withdrawn from the border. "They are in Sudan for now, but this is not a permanent position," Hanno said. ¶3. (SBU) According to Hanno, UFR has taken these temporary steps as a precursor to political dialogue with the Deby regime, but UFR will continue to consider armed action if N'Djamena does not respond to UFR's olive branch. "If we can't solve it this way, then we will solve it another way," he vowed. UFR combatants have not disarmed, and UFR does not intend for them to disarm soon. Inviting American officials to visit the rebel force in the field, Hanno said, "Come to our camps and see. We are not weak, but we are strong." Hanno said UFR would welcome any U.S. initiative that would bring about dialogue with N'Djamena. -------------- ANT, SAF TRADE BARBS ACROSS THE BORDER -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On July 26, a minor conflagration erupted between the Chadian National Army (ANT) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) on the Chad-Sudan border near Kulbus, West Darfur. SAF spotted a Chadian patrol consisting of 200 vehicles and seven tanks patrolling the border near Kulbus-- approximately 100 km north of El Geneina on the Chadian border. An ANT colonel communicated to SAF that the patrol was searching for three ANT soldiers who had crossed into Sudan to defect to the SAF. Although the ANT patrol never crossed into Sudan, the SAF fired warning shots in the air to discourage either desertions or military action. By 16:30 that day the ANT patrol had pulled further back into Chad and no casualties were reported. Since then the border has remained largely quiet, according to UNAMID. ¶5. (SBU) UNAMID military observers investigating the situation spoke with the GOS commander in Kulbus, who remained skeptical that the ANT patrol was searching for its defectors. SAF Colonel Hamad Hassan told the observers on July 27 that SAF West Darfur headquarters was ready to send a Hind helicopter gunship to Kulbus as a show of force, but backed off after the ANT withdrawal later that afternoon. He said that soldiers remain on high alert as their instructions from El Geneina remain clear that if a Chadian military patrol crosses into Sudan, SAF soldiers should fight back to repel them. ¶6. (SBU) UNAMID military observers received a report from SAF that on July 28, a heavily armed ANT military patrol had crossed the Sudanese border near Kulbus, into the village of Kalua. Eyewitnesses reported that the ANT patrol consisted of 30 vehicles, including 4 armored personnel carriers and vehicles carrying anti-aircraft weaponry. SAF reported to UNAMID that the patrol withdrew within several hours, and SAF reinforced the village with 40 soldiers the following day. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: UFR leadership's willingness to pull back to Khartoum reflects both political expediency and a strategic weakness given their drubbing at the hands of ANT forces in May. Now that Erdimi and other Chadian rebel leaders have returned to Khartoum, Post will continue to follow up on this issue. But while Darfur's rainy season may keep the rebels out of N'Djamena, Sudan's borders are as porous as ever. ¶8. (SBU) Comment continued. The exact details of ANT activity south of Kulbus remains murky, although we believe the best information to date is that reported ref B from UNAMID. Not in question, however, KHARTOUM 00000890 002 OF 002 is the potential for military confrontation to get out of hand. Had SAF HQ in West Darfur sent one of the SAF's speedy Hind gunships to confront an ANT patrol, a minor incident near Kulbus could have sparked a fight. Cooler heads prevailed in the SAF this time, but continued military gamesmanship in the border area could lead to trouble. WHITEHEAD