SUBJECT: Special Envoy Gration's July 22 Visit to Abyei

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000868

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E
NSC FOR MGAVIN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU
THE HAGUE

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: Special Envoy Gration's July 22 Visit to Abyei


1. (U) Summary: Special Envoy (SE) Scott Gration traveled to
Abyei on July 22 to observe, on the ground, the announcement of the
ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) in The Hague on
the delimitation of the borders of Abyei. During the course of the
day the SE: met with the commanders of the Abyei Joint Integrated
Unit (JIU) and the Abyei Administrator, attended the televised
announcement of the decision at the United Nations Mission in Sudan
(UNMIS) camp in Abyei, stopped briefly in the town of Mereim, and
paid a longer visit to the town of Muglad in the Misseriya heartland
where he addressed a meeting of assembled tribal leaders. Despite
the very real tensions around the PCA ruling, all sides eschewed
violence and representatives from both the National Congress Party
(NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) publicly
reiterated their common commitment to abide by The Hague ruling.
While there was no jubilation on either side of the compromise
decision, the Misseriya clearly felt that they had come out the
worse. The high-profile international presence helped defuse
trouble in Abyei, as did the efforts of both national and local
officials. The peace has held to date, but to maintain this status
quo, a continued high-level focus on Abyei will be needed in the
weeks and months ahead. End summary.

ORDER IN ABYEI TOWN


2. (U) SE Gration, Charge Whitehead and five other USG officials
took an early morning July 22 helicopter flight from Kadugli to
Abyei town, a predominantly Ngok Dinka settlement. They witnessed a
robust UNMIS presence in the area during the drive to the first stop
on the itinerary, the JIU camp on the edge of town, where they met
with SPLA Commander Colonel Valentino Tokmac and his Deputy, Sudan
Armed Forces (SAF) Colonel Mohammoud Abu Sarah. Valentino remarked
that it was good that the SE had come at the time of the ruling to
show that the outside world was watching Abyei. He said that the
JIU had been in place for three years and had thus far been
successful in containing unrest leading up to The Hague ruling. The
JIU had three garrisons stationed in the area, ONE north and ONE
south of the town, and they planned to deploy into Agok when the
site there was prepared. He was confident that his forces were "one
hundred percent" ready to deal with any unrest sparked by the
ruling. Rumors were flying, but civilians on both sides knew that
there would be an immediate response to any trouble.


3. (U) Valentino continued that the JIU had contingency plans in
place leading up to the announcement as well as post-ruling. They
had deployed along the roads in every direction, although there were
no forces stationed in several internal areas away from the roads
where attacks could occur. The number- ONE challenge was preventing
the entry of firearms, especially from the Misseriya cattle camps in
the north. He added that there was no indication that any attack
was imminent and thus far calm had prevailed both north and south.
Valentino roundly berated the negative impact of the July 21 public
statement by UN Special Representative of the Secretary General
Ashraf Qazi on an SPLA presence south of Abyei town. Valentino
complained that the Qazi declaration had unnecessarily heightened
tension, a refrain the SE was to hear repeated throughout the day.
He said that ONE militia had been reported moving from the north
after the announcement, and former Southern Sudan police officer
Samuel Deng had been ordered back after he moved up from the south.
He repeated that the JIU could contain would-be spoilers and
confirmed that outside of the JIU, the Joint Police Integrated
Units, UNMIS and 35 NISS officers, he was unaware of any other armed
forces in Abyei in violation of the road map. Only Misseriya in the
cattle camps were armed. Valentino concluded that it was not his
place to decide how the JIU deployment might be restructured after
the ruling. He said that his men were adequately trained, equipped
and organized, although heavier weapons were minimal. He had heard
that the Abyei JIU was considered ONE of the best of these units.


4. (U) The route to the headquarters of Abyei Administrator Arop
Mayak, the next stop on the itinerary, was lined by new construction
of tukuls (traditional huts) and more permanent structures in
replacement of those that had been destroyed in the fighting in
Abyei May 2008. Arop told the SE that he was there to support the
ruling, and not take sides. Some individuals would certainly be
disappointed by the ruling, but the PCA was the mutually-agreed
forum for the decision, and his message to all the people of Abyei
was peace. Arop thanked SE Gration for showing the USG's concern,
and then remarked that he had been taken aback by Qazi's "painful
and unexpected" statement. He claimed that Qazi had been informed
in advance of the SPLA presence in Abyei. The latter was reportedly
an element of Salva Kiir's personal protection force returning to
Juba by land after Kiir's recent visit to the Nuba Mountain area.
SE Gration said that he was heartened by the rebuilding he had
witnessed, a testament to the people of Abyei investing in their

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future. The US was confident that Abyei could succeed. Arop said
that they were trying to do their best. For the first time in a
decade the central track of the north/south Misseriya migration
route had been open. Two Ngok Dinka/Misseriya reconciliation
conferences had gone smoothly, and the third had been canceled due
to the visit of Kiir to the region, another major milestone in
defusing tensions between the two communities.


5. (U) The final stop in Abyei town was the UNMIS camp, where
several hundred people had gathered to see the televised PCA ruling.
The most charitable way to describe the event would be chaotic. On
the international side, the SE and party joined Qazi and his
delegation, the Dutch Ambassador representing the Assessment and
Evaluation Commission (EAC),and the Special Envoy of the European
Union. On the national side, Government of National Unity (GNU)
Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Government of National Unity Deng
Alor, GNU Minister of HEALTH Tabita Sokaya and Blue Nile State
Governor Malik Agar represented the SPLM; and GNU Minister of
Interior Ibrahim Hamid and State Minister of Humanitarian Affairs
Dr. Abdel Bagi El-Janini represented the NCP. There was much
scrambling to find a suitable television feed - for a time, the
audience was treated to CNN coverage of the Tour de France - an
Arabic language al Jazeera program broadcast the ruling live. There
was no celebration as the outlines of the ruling became clear, but
no palpable disappointment either. The SE departed Abyei for Meiram
immediately after the broadcast ended.

HAPPINESS ALL AROUND IN MEIRAM


6. (U) Within minutes of touching down on the football field near
the market in Meiram, the helicopter carrying the SE and
representatives of the SPLM and NCP wa surrounded by a throng of
excited townspeople who certainly knew by then that this
predominantly Misseriya settlement would become part of South
Kordofan under the PCA ruling. State Minister Bagi El-Jalani was
the first person to address the crowd from the bed of a pick-up
truck. He introduced SE Gration and thanked President Obama for
sending him to Abyei on this historic day, which triggered cheering
and loud chant of "Obama! Obama!" from the crowd. Foreign
Minister Deng Alor, spoke next to frequent roars of approval from
the audience, and Minister Sokaya followed. SE Gration delivered
the final address to more ecstatic cheering from the crowd, and
after forty minutes on the ground, the helicopter was airborne on
the way to the town of Muglad in the Misseriya heartland to the
north.

FEAR AND LOATHING IN MUGLAD


7. (U) NCP Governor of South Kordofan Ahmed Haroun and two parked
Mi-35 helicopter gunships normally stationed in either El Fasher or
El Obeid were waiting at the airport to welcome the arriving
delegation. A motorcade whisked the party to the government complex
where a crowd of approximately 100 Misseriya leaders was seated in
the shade of a large tree. Joined by Deputy Governor of South
Kordofan, the SPLM's Abel Azeez El-Hilu, the delegates began a town
hall of sorts with an audience best characterized as silent and
sullen. Haroun opened by introducing the visitors and welcoming
them to Muglad. Dr. Bagi El-Jalani followed, repeating the NCP's
commitment to abide by the PCA ruling and emphasizing that the
rights of the Misseriya to migrate south with their cattle and gain
access to water points in the dry season would be respected. No
applause followed his presentation, and his mention of President
Obama elicited only silence. Deng Alor, a Ngok Dinka whose village
of origin is south of Muglad, spoke next, eliciting a few grudging
laughs when he remarked that the Ngok and Misseriya had sat around
under a tree instead of settling the contentions between them as
they had in the old days, thus leading to the arbitration in The
Hague. He spoke at length on neighborliness and common ties. Stony
silence followed his remarks.


8. (U) SE Gration spoke next, pointing to the tree and its branches
and remarking that it existed and provided food, shelter, firewood
and shade only because it was solidly rooted in the earth. The
Misseriya and Dinka both needed to develop strong roots together if
they were to grow the prosperous future that their descendants
deserved. Two Misseriya elders spoke next, the first flatly stating
that the ruling had not been in favor of the Misseriya. Despite
this, he continued, they would accept it and seek to exist in
harmony with their Dinka neighbors. He harked back to the
inter-communal comity of yesteryear and called for its revival. He
remarked, however, that it would be difficult to imagine much
harmony if all of the resources committed to the region went to the
Dinka in Abyei and the Misseriya in the north did not receive their
fair share. A second elder spoke in harsher, more agitated tones,

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sardonically congratulating Deng Alor for having carried the day,
but also stating that the Misseriya were prepared to accept this
outcome. He warned, however, that the Misseriya would not hesitate
to react if their rights were violated. The next speaker was the
local imam, who quoted a sura from the Quran on brotherhood, and
then reminded the assembly that there grandfathers had lived beside
and worked with and even intermarried with the Dinka. The old ways
had been good. The Misseriya, he concluded, were people of peace,
and they should seek peace as the way forward. For the first and
only time during the meeting, the Misseriya leaders applauded
loudly. Governor Haroun adjourned the meeting on that note; the
delegation was off for the airport; and the day in Abyei was done.

9. (SBU) Comment: Thanks to the high-level presence in both Dinka
and Misseriya areas of Abyei and the successful pre-ruling
arrangements by the UNMIS, the GNU, the JIU and local officials; the
potentially-explosive ruling came off smoothly. In an agreed joint
statement, the NCP and SPLM again reiterated their readiness to
abide by and implement the decision. These were felicitous steps
forward, but as Salva Kiir later commented in Juba, "the
announcement in Abyei was not the final solution to the problems
there." Due to the nature of the ruling, which split petroleum
resources and land in a compromise solution, neither side was
entirely pleased with the outcome. In sum, however, the Dinka
appeared less unhappy about the outcome than the Misseriya, if the
mood in Muglad was any indication. The potential for clashes in
Abyei and surrounding areas remains a real possibility over the next
months, and especially with the advent of the dry season and the
southward migration of the Misseriya herders. The AEC will convene
its plenary in Abyei on August 2 and 3 to keep a focus on the area.
Additional high-level attention and additional resources will be
needed to move this region toward January 2011 and what will be the
next huge challenge - whether Abyei chooses to cast its lot with the
South or retain its current special status in the North.

The Special Envoy has cleared this cable.

WHITEHEAD