PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION DECISION CHANGES ABYEI

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000862 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION DECISION CHANGES ABYEI BOUNDARIES ¶1. (SBU) 1. (SBU) Summary: Special Envoy Gration, Charge Whitehead, as well as representatives from the EU, UN and Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC),went to Abyei on July 22 for the announcement of The Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) decision on the province's border demarcation. The PCA ruled that in reviewing the Abyei Border Commission (ABC) Panel of Experts original demarcation, the latter had committed errors in the implementation of its mandate. In its role as arbitrator, the PCA changed the eastern and western boundaries of the pivotal province, and revised the shared-rights areas of Abyei. The PCA found that the northern border limit along 10'10' latitude is correct as drawn and will not change. Likewise, the southern boundary of Abyei is also correct, and will not be altered. Following the PCA's announcement of its decision, SE Gration's delegation met with tribal Missseryia leaders in Meriam and Muglad, who reaffirmed their acceptance of the ruling. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The SPLM had optimistically believed for months that the ABC Panel of Experts decision would be completely upheld. For this reason, the PCA's decision was disappointing. However, it is expected that both the NCP and SPLM will abide by terms of today's PCA decision, which lays the foundation for an altered "oil-landscape" in a post-2011 Sudan. The decision decreased the territory of Abyei, and the GOSS shifted some oil fields into Sudan's North. Heglig (19,900 bpd yield in 2007) and Bamboo oil fields now reside in Sudan's "North," as do portions of the Toma fields (although GOSS officials reached on July 22 believed this could be altered.) Should the South opt for independence in 2011, with Abyei voting to join it, profits from these fields would be withheld - whereas they currently contribute to the South's share of oil proceeds as established by the CPA.(NOTE: Diffra stays in Abyei, producing 13,800 bpd yield. END NOTE.) ¶3. (SBU) Overall, the PCA decision reduced the area of Abyei by 3,000 square miles. The PCA upheld the concept of shared areas between the Misseriya and Ngok Dinka, but it eliminated the ABC Panel of Experts line at 10'22'30, a sizeable reduction in the territory of Abyei. Although the PCA's rule ends nearly four years of impasse over Abyei following the north's rejection of the ABC decision, nearly twenty-percent of the North/South border remains contested, and final resolution rests with the SPLM and NCP. The northwest border of Unity State (which is the shared Eastern border of Abyei, now altered by the PCA),will be demarcated by the Ad-Hoc Technical Border Commission, making what was previously merely a dispute between Unity State authorities and the Abyei Administration a North/South issue. Although unlikely to be supported by Khartoum, the CPA's Ad Hoc Technical Border Commission could propose a boundary revision along the Unity State/Southern Kordofan divide that places Heglig in the South once more. ¶4. (SBU) GOSS Vice President Riek Machar told Poloff that he expected the border commission's "final report" to be complete by the end of July, and ready for review by the SPLM and NCP political leadership. Six specific areas along the 156 North/South border remain disputed. "We are trying to learn from the mistakes made in the census, and move this quickly away from the technocrats." GNU State Minister for Humanitarian Affairs praised the decision before local media. "There is no distinct line between Dinka and Misseriya in this area. People are intermingling. They reflect the unity of Sudan. We are looking to this area as a starting point for the referendum of 2011. This will be the focal point where Sudan starts to unite." ¶5. (SBU) GOSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit held a press conference in Juba on July 22 in which he praised the PCA decision as one which "rebuilt the foundation for the extension of a comprehensive peace in Sudan," and he noted with appreciation the NCP's public comments on the decision. Kiir called on "all citizens of Abyei" to help with the implementation of the decision, noting that "warmongers who seek to divide Ngok Dinka and Misseriya as a result of this decision have not felt the sting of a bullet, and are not worthy of leadership." Sudan People's Liberation Army representatives reported to Poloff on July 22 that the situation in Abyei remains quiet. They reported a sizeable Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) movement on July 212 on the fringe of Abyei, but no SAF incursions across the border. Because the Diffra oil field now belongs conclusively in Abyei, the SAF troops based seven kilometers south of Difra must also move. ¶6. (SBU) SE Gration said to international and local press following the PCA award: "I am very optimistic ... I had an opportunity to drive through Abyei and see the changes. The new building, the new construction, the repairs that have been done. I have also had an opportunity to spend the last month talking to senior members and KHARTOUM 00000862 002 OF 002 leaders of the SPLM and the NCP, and ... I'm optimistic. The commitments ... will be carried out in deed and this arbitration decision will be fully implemented. The border will be demarcated and the Dinka and the Misseriya will live for a long time in peace." ¶7. (SBU) The Special Envoy and CDA visited the predominantly Misseriya towns of Merian and Muglad following the decision. Although some leaders especially in the latter expressed disappointment with the PCA ruling, all pledged to abide by it. Post will provide via septel more detailed reporting. WHITEHEAD