SE MEETING WITH ABYEI LEADERS BOUND FOR THE HAGUE

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000860 SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF A/S CARSON, SE GRATION, S/USSES NSC FOR MGAVIN, AF/C, AF/E, DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN, ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: SE MEETING WITH ABYEI LEADERS BOUND FOR THE HAGUE ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Special Envoy (SE) Gration presided over a July 20 meeting of senior NCP and Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM) officials and Ngok Dinka and Misseriya Leaders, the latter parties bound for The Hague to hear the July 22 ruing of the Permanent Count of Arbitration (PCA) ruling on the border in the Abyei region of Sudan. A meeting that began with palpable tension concluded with a positive affirmation that all parties will seek a soft landing for one of the most contentious issues in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). The SE outlined the understanding between the NCP and SPLM on how to manage the relation on the ground between the Ngok and Misseriya in the aftermath of the ruling, then answered questions and heard out the concerns of the affected parties. The meeting was in our view a good first step toward defusing what could be a deal-breaker for the CPA, although it did point to the challenges that lie ahead. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) In the wake of the July 16-19 trilateral talks in Khartoum, all parties moved rapidly to find solutions to the upcoming PCA ruling. With the logistics assistance of the United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS),some 40 participants from both sides convened at Friendship Hall in Khartoum on July 20 to discuss the run-up and aftermath of the announcement in The Hague. SE Gration, Ghazi Salah el Deen, NCP lead for Darfur and the trilateral process, and Malek Agar, SPLM Governor of Blue Nile State and SPLM's Pagan Amun met with senior Ngok and Misseriya leaders en route to The Hague. SE Gration took the lead, explaining in detail the NCP/SPLM agreement on how to implement the decision on Abyei. ¶3. (SBU) The SE listed the following elements of agreement: a. Agreement that the decision is final and binding, with the following provisions: both political parties and affected communities will attend the announcement in The Hague; there will be prior discussion between Ngok and Misseriya in Khartoum; a limited international presence will be on the ground in Abyei to visit both communities when the announcement is made; the NCP and SPLM will form a joint demarcation committee and joint oversight committee with affected community representatives. b. All parties will agree to fully implement the extant Abyei Protocol (AP),including its international and wealth sharing arrangements, oil arrears and current payments according to the new boundaries defined by the PCA. The GoNU will fund the Abyei Administration per the AP; and the relevant working group of the CPA Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) will convene in Abyei within 14 days after the ruling. c. The parties will disseminate the decision at the local-level and meet with affected communities in the Abyei area; to assure mitigation of the conflict the parties will work to ensure that violent reactions do not occur; there will be a joint NCP/SPLM press statement in English and Arabic; the NCP and SPLM will visit the Abyei area to voice their commitment to implementation of the ruling; a joint taskforce will meet with traditional leaders and disseminate the decision on the ground. d. All parties will seek to prevent violence by pulling back Sudan Armed Forces and SPLA forces and containing spoilers; respecting security provisions of the AP; requesting a cease-fire; a Combined Joint Monitoring Commission meeting within one week; allowing freedom of movement for UNMIS monitoring. ¶4. (SBU) With the floor opened for questions and comments, a senior Misseriya Nasr asked US views on the implementation of agreement. SE Gration stressed that we fully support the decision and will facilitate its implementation. The responsibility for peace and stability in Abyei rested with the political parties and the affected communities: their future and destiny were squarely in their own hands. ¶5. (SBU) The Nasr thanked the SE, and said that this was what they had come to hear. In the recent past, (America) had been &a wind from nowhere blowing into things that were not its concern.8 The people of Abyei were a simple people who understand simple messages and wanted peace among themselves. He added that the Misseriya considered themselves people of Abyei, and as such, had the right to vote in the 2011 Abyei Referendum determining whether the area cast its lot with the North or South. ¶6. (SBU) The exchange served as an icebreaker ) a second Nasr offered that it was outsiders who brought conflict into Abyei. A flood of interventions followed from both sides, all of them indicating that both sides believed the soft landing scenario was in the interest of all as Sudanese and peoples who had historically shared the land. ¶7. (SBU) The session concluded with statements by both Salah el Deen and Agar, followed by statements (the session had been closed to the media) by the SE, Salah el Deen and Agar. The latter reaffirmed that SPLA forces had been withdrawn from the area. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: This was a good step forward in dealing with one of the toughest issues confronting implementation of the CPA, with significant efforts by the international community to prepare the parties for the decision. The meeting itself was gratifying as much as in tone as in substance. The two sides entered the hall in succession, separately like prizefighters coming into a fight, but mingled on departure, chatting easily between themselves. The situation remains fragile and tense, but the combination of a trilateral presence in Ngok and Misseriya areas of Abyei at the time of the ruling, the presence of senior delegations from all parties in The Hague and the international community's attention will help cushion the impact of a decision that will be ill-received in some quarters. The final proof, of course, will be in implementation and not plans. The referendum vote marker placed by the Misseriya Nasr points to daunting challenges that wait ahead. WHITEHEAD