SE MEETING WITH ABYEI LEADERS BOUND FOR THE HAGUE

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000860

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF A/S CARSON, SE GRATION, S/USSES
NSC FOR MGAVIN, AF/C, AF/E, DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR
AFR/SUDAN, ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SE MEETING WITH ABYEI LEADERS BOUND FOR THE HAGUE


1. (SBU) Summary: Special Envoy (SE) Gration presided over a
July 20 meeting of senior NCP and Sudanese Peoples Liberation
Movement (SPLM) officials and Ngok Dinka and Misseriya
Leaders, the latter parties bound for The Hague to hear the
July 22 ruing of the Permanent Count of Arbitration (PCA)
ruling on the border in the Abyei region of Sudan. A meeting
that began with palpable tension concluded with a positive
affirmation that all parties will seek a soft landing for one
of the most contentious issues in the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA). The SE outlined the understanding between
the NCP and SPLM on how to manage the relation on the ground
between the Ngok and Misseriya in the aftermath of the
ruling, then answered questions and heard out the concerns of
the affected parties. The meeting was in our view a good
first step toward defusing what could be a deal-breaker for
the CPA, although it did point to the challenges that lie
ahead. End Summary.


2. (SBU) In the wake of the July 16-19 trilateral talks in
Khartoum, all parties moved rapidly to find solutions to the
upcoming PCA ruling. With the logistics assistance of the
United Nations Mission in Sudan (UNMIS),some 40 participants
from both sides convened at Friendship Hall in Khartoum on
July 20 to discuss the run-up and aftermath of the
announcement in The Hague. SE Gration, Ghazi Salah el Deen,
NCP lead for Darfur and the trilateral process, and Malek
Agar, SPLM Governor of Blue Nile State and SPLM's Pagan Amun
met with senior Ngok and Misseriya leaders en route to The
Hague. SE Gration took the lead, explaining in detail the
NCP/SPLM agreement on how to implement the decision on Abyei.


3. (SBU) The SE listed the following elements of agreement:

a. Agreement that the decision is final and binding, with
the following provisions: both political parties and affected
communities will attend the announcement in The Hague; there
will be prior discussion between Ngok and Misseriya in
Khartoum; a limited international presence will be on the
ground in Abyei to visit both communities when the
announcement is made; the NCP and SPLM will form a joint
demarcation committee and joint oversight committee with
affected community representatives.

b. All parties will agree to fully implement the extant Abyei
Protocol (AP),including its international and wealth sharing
arrangements, oil arrears and current payments according to
the new boundaries defined by the PCA. The GoNU will fund
the Abyei Administration per the AP; and the relevant working
group of the CPA Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC)
will convene in Abyei within 14 days after the ruling.

c. The parties will disseminate the decision at the
local-level and meet with affected communities in the Abyei
area; to assure mitigation of the conflict the parties will
work to ensure that violent reactions do not occur; there
will be a joint NCP/SPLM press statement in English and
Arabic; the NCP and SPLM will visit the Abyei area to voice
their commitment to implementation of the ruling; a joint
taskforce will meet with traditional leaders and disseminate
the decision on the ground.

d. All parties will seek to prevent violence by pulling back
Sudan Armed Forces and SPLA forces and containing spoilers;
respecting security provisions of the AP; requesting a
cease-fire; a Combined Joint Monitoring Commission meeting
within one week; allowing freedom of movement for UNMIS
monitoring.


4. (SBU) With the floor opened for questions and comments, a
senior Misseriya Nasr asked US views on the implementation of
agreement. SE Gration stressed that we fully support the
decision and will facilitate its implementation. The
responsibility for peace and stability in Abyei rested with
the political parties and the affected communities: their
future and destiny were squarely in their own hands.


5. (SBU) The Nasr thanked the SE, and said that this was what
they had come to hear. In the recent past, (America) had
been &a wind from nowhere blowing into things that were not
its concern.8 The people of Abyei were a simple people who
understand simple messages and wanted peace among themselves.
He added that the Misseriya considered themselves people of
Abyei, and as such, had the right to vote in the 2011 Abyei
Referendum determining whether the area cast its lot with the
North or South.


6. (SBU) The exchange served as an icebreaker ) a second
Nasr offered that it was outsiders who brought conflict into
Abyei. A flood of interventions followed from both sides,
all of them indicating that both sides believed the soft
landing scenario was in the interest of all as Sudanese and
peoples who had historically shared the land.


7. (SBU) The session concluded with statements by both Salah
el Deen and Agar, followed by statements (the session had
been closed to the media) by the SE, Salah el Deen and Agar.
The latter reaffirmed that SPLA forces had been withdrawn
from the area.


8. (SBU) Comment: This was a good step forward in dealing
with one of the toughest issues confronting implementation of
the CPA, with significant efforts by the international
community to prepare the parties for the decision. The
meeting itself was gratifying as much as in tone as in
substance. The two sides entered the hall in succession,
separately like prizefighters coming into a fight, but
mingled on departure, chatting easily between themselves.
The situation remains fragile and tense, but the combination
of a trilateral presence in Ngok and Misseriya areas of Abyei
at the time of the ruling, the presence of senior delegations
from all parties in The Hague and the international
community's attention will help cushion the impact of a
decision that will be ill-received in some quarters. The
final proof, of course, will be in implementation and not
plans. The referendum vote marker placed by the Misseriya
Nasr points to daunting challenges that wait ahead.

WHITEHEAD