KHARTOUM BACKPEDALS ON TIMING OF PERMANENT COURT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000836 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S, AF/C, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/13/2011 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: KHARTOUM BACKPEDALS ON TIMING OF PERMANENT COURT OF ARBITRATION (PCA) RULING ON ABYEI REF: A) KHARTOUM 816 B) STATE 017326 Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C ) Summary: CDA met with MFA Undersecretary Mutriff Saddiq on July 13, to review logistic details for the upcoming trilateral talks and to discuss President Obama,s speech in Ghana and his meetings in Moscow. Mutriff reiterated his &personal8 concerns about the security situation in Abyei at the time of the announcement (ref a) and said that the National Congress Party (NCP) Abyei expert Didiri had requested that the PCA postpone announcement of the Abyei ruling to allow additional time to discuss post-agreement modalities with different factions of the Missiriya Tribe. We have heard from another source that the PCA has asked the NCP and Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) to provide a jointly agreed date for announcing the ruling. If such a recommendation is not withcoming by July 14, the PCA will reportedly proceed as it sees fit. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The Undersecretary and CDA covered a checklist of issues, including President Obama,s speech in Ghana, an outstanding child abduction case, and administrative details related to the upcoming visit of Special Envoy Gration and President Obama,s July 6-8 bilateral meetings in Moscow. Not surprisingly, Mutriff said the NCP/Government of National Unity (GNU) was taken aback by the POTUS reference to genocide in Darfur; it called into question the USG's sincerity about engagement with Sudan. CDA replied that discussing solutions for Darfur during the upcoming SE visit was preferable to complaining about terms. Mutriff moved on to the child abduction case and said that he would personally try to intervene on humanitarian grounds to give the mother in question access to her children. CDA also took the opportunity to demarche Mutriff on the U.S.- Russian presidential summit (ref b). The Undersecretary said that the GNU had remarked the positive outcome of the summit and was pleased that the &slide into another Cold War8 seemed over. He praised both sides on the agreement to reduce strategic nuclear warheads and remarked that he had been surprised that the U.S. and Russia had reached an air transit agreement for resupplying coalition forces in Afghanistan through Russian air space. ¶3. (C) CDA noted SE Gration's continued willingness to be present in Abyei at the time of the PCA announcement if both the NCP and SPLM feel that this would be beneficial. Mutriff hedged saying it was his &personal8 view that the announcement might spark controversy on the ground. He said that there were still uncertainties about how the Missiriya Tribe would react, given competing factions that favor different outcomes. He raised the (rather improbable) specter of Missiriya supporters of the SPLM or Justice and Equality Movement taking advantage of the moment to provoke conflict. He said that he had phoned NCP Abyei point man Didiri Mohamed Ahmed in London and understood that Didiri had formally asked the PCA to postpone announcement of its decision, providing the NCP more time to deal with the Missiriya. Mutriff did not know how long a postponement the NCP favored. ¶4. Comment: In a subsequent conversation with Charge, Assessment and Evaluation Commission Chairman Plumbley said that the PCA had responded to the NCP request for postponement by telling both parties to submit a mutually agreed date for the announcement. Failing this, the PCA will announce the decision at the moment it sees fit, which Plumbley expected to adhere to the July 22 date. The NCP is clearly concerned that it will be blamed if its Missiriya supporters misbehave, and SPLM maintains its position that postponing the announcement will only increase tensions in the Abyei area. We do not expect the two parties to agree on a mutually acceptable date and anticipate that the announcement will come off next week as scheduled. WHITEHEAD