NAFIE SATISFIED WITH TRILATERAL TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000803 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S, AF/C, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2019 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: NAFIE SATISFIED WITH TRILATERAL TALKS Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a June 30 meeting with CDA Whitehead, influential Assistant to the President Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie expressed satisfaction with the June round of Trilateral Talks in Washington, and deemed the progress made in improving bilateral relations "acceptable and reasonable." He urged the USG to overcome what he perceives as a bias toward the South by addressing the SPLM's reluctance to accept the census results, as well as its perceived shortcomings in implementation of wealth sharing provisions of CPA. With Northern opposition parties in disarray, the NCP is confident of its chances for victory in the 2010 election, said Nafie, who welcomed international observers both for the election and the 2011 referendum. End Summary. ¶2. (C) After CDA Whitehead briefed him on the recent Trilateral meetings in Washington, DC, the normally hardline but now conciliatory Nafie expressed his contentment with the talks. Even the points of contention that emerged were positive, he said, because they clarified the two sides' respective positions in advance of future discussions. While the GOS would like to see more rapid improvements in its bilateral relations with the USG, he considered the progress made so far in this realm to be "acceptable and reasonable." Nafie also noted that the trip to Washington was "highly significant" for the National Congress Party, because it demonstrated an increased willingness by the USG to serve as an honest broker. ¶3. (C) Despite his satisfaction with the talks, Nafie spoke out against what he perceives as a continued USG bias toward the SPLM. "You've continued to highlight (NCP) shortcomings, but you remain silent on theirs," he remarked, singling out wealth sharing provisions of the CPA. "Who is really abiding by the letter and spirit" on the dispute over foreign exchange reserves and the functioning of the Central Bank, he mused. In response, CDA Whitehead noted that the USG would offer constructive criticism to both parties behind closed doors, but would avoid public condemnations which serve only to harden negotiating positions. ¶4. (C) On the subject of upcoming elections, Nafie stated that the NCP was determined to stick to the timeline proposed by the National Electoral Commission, praising its Chairman Dr. Abel Alier as "very credible, professional and impartial." In order for elections to be held in a timely manner, he urged that the international community help the SPLM overcome its reluctance to accept the census results. "If we do not base the elections on the census, what is there to base them on?" he asked. According to Nafie, the Northern opposition parties are completely unprepared for elections in terms of organization and popular support. Umma's Sadiq Al Mahdi and DUP's Mohammed Mirghani are "day-dreaming", by clinging to a hope that regime change will occur before the electoral process, he said. ¶5. (C) Nafie agreed that provisions existed in the CPA for international observers at both the 2010 elections and the 2011 Referendum. He emphasizing that having independent observers served the interest of the NCP, so that ill-prepared opposition parties could not cry foul on election results and "no Southerner be forced to vote for secession." The Referendum Law is under discussion, he said, noting that the NCP's Secretariat for Legal Affairs is drafting its version of the bill, which will hopefully be available next week. "Of course, we are crafting this bill in favor of unity," he noted. 6, (C) Comment: Recent progress in improving bilateral relations has apparently been enough to ease Nafie's well-known skepticism of engagement with the U.S. Though he was pulled off the Darfur portfolio in favor of the more conciliatory Ghazi, Nafie no doubt retains considerable influence with the President, and the softening of his tone likely demonstrates broad-based NCP buy-in to USG engagement. Retaining the support of the hardliners will be critical in order to achieve progress on Darfur and the CPA. WHITEHEAD