GOS RESUMES BOMBING IN DAR ZAGHAWA AMID RUMORS OF JEM

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000788 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL MOPS ASEC SOCI KPKO AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: GOS RESUMES BOMBING IN DAR ZAGHAWA AMID RUMORS OF JEM REARMING REF: A) KHARTOUM 729 B) KHARTOUM 684 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: GOS aircraft bombed several remote areas around Furawiya on June 23-24 amid rumors that JEM is regrouping for another offensive, according to the UN Department of Safety and Security (UNDSS). UNDSS Officer Frazer King told poloff that the GOS aircraft sporadically bombed four to five locations over a two-day period across the vast swaths of uninhabited land in far North Darfur. It was unknown whether JEM sustained any damage or losses, as attempts to reach JEM field commanders were unsuccessful. UNDSS and other sources also reported that the GOS is mobilizing both conventional SAF troops as well as Arab militia fighters to deploy to the area in anticipation of future JEM attacks. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) On June 25, King told poloff that GOS authorities instructed a UN team bound for Furawiya to delay its departure on June 23, and on the following day ordered the trip cancelled entirely. UNDSS subsequently received reports of GOS aircraft bombing areas north and northwest of Furawiya on June 23-24. According to King, these were not targeted attacks. The bombings were spread out among well-traveled land routes along the vast, empty area around Furawiya, he said, and it was unclear whether JEM had sustained any damage or losses. ¶3. (SBU) Attempts to reach Suleiman Sandal, JEM's Deputy Commander-in-Chief and chief military spokesman, were unsuccessful, and other rebel and civil society actors were unable to confirm the bombings in this desolate area. But an Egyptian political officer told poloff on June 25 that in a meeting last week Ministry of Foreign Affairs U/S Mutriff Siddiq freely admitted that the SAF has been bombing JEM positions near Furawiya. ¶4. (SBU) In addition to recent bombings, UNDSS Officer King stated that significant GOS troop movements have been observed both from El Fasher and the UNAMID Team Site (TS) in Um Barro, as the GOS positions its forces in anticipation of a future JEM attack. King also reported that although UNDSS has been denied access by the GOS to certain areas along the Main Supply Route (MSR) between Kutum and Um Barro, villagers told UNDSS that Arab militia are camped in the area near Al Dur (approximately 50 kilometers north of Kutum.) King believes that Arab militia would be used along with conventional forces to fend off future JEM attacks in Dar Zaghawa. ¶4. (SBU) On June 23, a statement appeared on JEM's website accusing the GOS of preparing a military campaign against JEM. It asserted that a column of SAF soldiers, Chadian rebel fighters and Janjaweed militiamen had moved north from Geneina towards Kulbus, and would soon target JEM positions. It dismissed as "propaganda" rumors of JEM preparations to attack the SAF, along with reports of a Khalil Ibrahim visit to Israel. ¶5. (SBU) Civil society activist Ahmed Adam Yousif, recently returned from Disa and Birmaza area along the along the MSR between Kutum and Um Barro, affirmed to poloff on July 25 that there was significant GOS troop mobilization towards Um Barro and Karnoi. He said that the GOS troops there had come from South Kordofan, Blue Nile State, and other areas outside of Darfur. He expected that fighting between JEM and the GOS would commence "in the coming days." ¶6. (SBU) Comment: JEM's reluctance to agree to a cessation of hostilities in Doha, which resulted in the suspension of bilateral talks with the GOS, could very well be motivated by hopes of achieving additional military gains in Dar Zaghawa through a renewed offensive. The mobilization of SAF troops and resumption of aerial bombing there show that the GOS certainly is expecting one. JEM's attacks on Karnoi and Um Barro last month reportedly have emptied the area of much of its civilian population, so future clashes might have little effect on civilians. But renewed attacks by JEM would certainly derail any potential progress on the prisoner release issue in the now-moribund Doha talks. JEM should be made aware that the USG is strongly opposed to the renewal of such attacks, and would view JEM military actions as threatening the peace process and potentially endangering the well-being of the Darfuri people, whom JEM claims to represent. ASQUINO