THE CHANGING DYNAMIC IN DARFUR: ZAGHAWA MOVEMENTS TURN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000075

DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: THE CHANGING DYNAMIC IN DARFUR: ZAGHAWA MOVEMENTS TURN
AGAINST EACH OTHER WITH SOME ASSISTANCE FROM KHARTOUM

REF: A) KHARTOUM 51


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: According to UNAMID, the Justice and Equality
Movement (JEM) now controls the key South Darfur villages of Labado
and Muhajarriya after attacking SLM/Minnawi positions. One UNAMID
source claimed that the Government of Sudan (GoS) started bombing
both JEM and SLM/MM on the periphery of the fighting on January 20.
One SLM/MM contact said that SLM/MM has left its positions in its
stronghold of Graida in the hands of the GoS, predicted more
fighting in South Darfur, and alleged that the GoS is allowing JEM
to stage attacks on rival rebel movements. END SUMMARY.

JEM NOW CONTROLS BOTH LABADO AND MUHAJARRIYA
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2. (SBU) On January 20, UNAMID contacts confirmed that JEM
controls both Labado and the former SLM/MM stronghold of Muhajarriya
following fighting in South Darfur beginning on January 15 (reftel).
UNAMID contacts also reported that they have credible information
that Arab militia are gathering in Shariah, although the forces have
not yet engaged in any fighting. According to these sources, SLM/MM
appears to be preparing for counterattacks against JEM and is
located south of Muhajarriya. Another UNAMID security contact
reported that he received reports that the GoS has begun aerial
bombing "on the periphery of the fighting to attack both SLM/MM and
JEM positions and kill two birds with one stone." This source
claimed that fighting between SLM/MM and JEM was ongoing. (Note:
Both SLM/MM and other UNAMID contacts contradicted this statement
saying that there had been no fighting in two days. Accurate
information is difficult to obtain. End note.) Both UNAMID contacts
acknowledged difficulties in UNAMID's "information flow" as
contradictory reports stream in from the GOS and rival rebel
movements.

ENCOURAGING DIALOGUE
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3. (SBU) UNAMID Security and Political Affairs contacts stated
that UN's OCHA and other humanitarian agencies have encouraged
reconciliation efforts between JEM and SLM/MM. UNAMID's Political
Affairs Section has been actively encouraging the Zaghawa Shura
Council to take the lead role in mediation. One SLM/MM
representative, Adam Ali Ware, also independently stated that the
Zaghawa Shura Council could play an important role in reconciliation
efforts. UNAMID contacts acknowledged that UNAMID's senior
leadership (most notably the Joint Special Representative and his
Deputy) have not been constructively engaged in finding a solution
to the JEM-SLM/MM conflict. UN/AU Mediator Bassole has also come and
gone without engaging in damage control.

SLM/MM ON GRAIDA, THE CONFLICT'S START, AND JEM'S GOAL
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4. (SBU) SLM/MM's former Ceasefire Commission Representative (CFC)
Adam Ali Ware told poloffs on January 20 that SLM/MM forces left its
stronghold of Graida in the hands of the Government of Sudan.
According to Ware, the King of Graida encouraged SLM/MM to
temporarily hand over its control of the village to the GoS forces.
Ware stated, "This will free our forces up for other things, and it
is better that we have an agreement with the Government now rather
than have the Government turn on us later." Ware said that Minnawi
authorized this deal, and that discussions about this likely started
between Minnawi and Minister of Defense Abdul Rahim Hussein before
Minnawi's departure for El-Fasher. (Note: "Al-Ahdath" also reported
on January 19 that, in coordination with SLM/MM, SAF had taken over
control of Graida "to prevent the fall of the region to Khalil's
forces." End Note.)


5. (SBU) This SLM/MM contact asserted that Minnawi is "very angry"
about JEM's attack on SLM/MM ajd predicted that there will be
further inter-rebel (and inter-Zaghawa) fighting in Dar Es Salaam,
Labado, and Muhajarriya. Ware said that it is not clear whether
JEM's attack was directed by Khalil Ibrahim, or if it began as a
personal conflict between former SLM/MM commander Arku Suliman Dahia
and SLM/MM commanders in Muhajarriya. Ware then repeated Minnawi's
earlier charges of GoS and Chadian complicity in JEM's attack on
SLM/MM.


6. (SBU) UNAMID Political affairs also reported that Minnawi
continues to claim that the GoS has cooperated with JEM, allowing
JEM units to pass through GoS checkpoints and military positions
such as Sayah and Kulkul. According to these sources, Minnawi told
UNAMID that Khalil Ibrahim has promised to work with the GoS in
return for a position of Vice-President and a GoS promise to spare
the life of Abdallaziz Osher, a brother of Khalil Ibrahim who has
been in custody in Khartoum since the May 2008 JEM attack on the
capital. In exchange, JEM would guarantee that it would be the only
military force on the ground and promise there would be no rebel

KHARTOUM 00000075 002 OF 002


attacks against Khartoum following negotiations.

SUDANESE MEDIA FOCUS ON THE JEM-SLM/MM FIGHTING
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7. (SBU) On January 16th Sudanese Television aired footage of the
Wali of South Darfur, Ali Mahmoud, saying that "Minni's forces
deserve what they got because the GoS offered to intervene, but
Minni's forces refused. Minni's forces should have re-integrated
with the Government long ago and become part of SAF, but they
delayed, and this is the result." The report also presented an
image of Muhajarriya with women crying and some destroyed JEM
vehicles and wounded fighters. Also on January 19, Sudanese media
reported that both JEM and SLM/MM have suffered significant
casualties from the inter-rebel fighting. On January 20, Sudanese
press reported that there were over 150 dead and wounded rebels from
both SLM/MM and JEM. Another report stated that Minnawi lashed out
at the feckless and ineffective UNAMID and accused the hybrid force
of "igniting the dispute between the rebel movements."

COMMENT
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8. (SBU) These clashes are, like the recent Gaza conflict, an
unexpected bounty for the Khartoum regime. This latest episode
demonstrates starkly the complexity of the current conflict in
Darfur. Battles are sometimes waged between the government and
rebels; however, over the last year we have witnessed bitter
conflict between the rebels themSelves, between pro-regime Arab
tribes, and between insubordinate Arab proxy militias and government
forces. This is hardly the "grinding genocide" that some have
described, but rather a chaotic and lawless situation that requires
diplomacy to push toward security arrangements on the ground that
will lead to a sustainable ceasefire.


9. (SBU) Comment Cot'd: SLM/MM is in a particularly difficult
position, and it appears to be a contradiction that Minnawi would
simultaneously entrust one of his few remaining strongholds to the
GOS and allege that JEM and the GOS are working together. Minnawi
told CDA Fernandez on January 16 - as the fighting began - that his
movement's strongholds are Muhajiriyya, Greida and Labado. He has
now, at least for the moment, lost all three. The wildly divergent
UNAMID reports, once again, show the need for better information and
a ceasefire mechanism or Darfur monitoring team. It also underscores
the general operational passivity of UNAMID even with over 50
percent of the force on the ground. The Sudanese Media are having a
field-day with the inter-rebel fighting, and as the noxious Ali
Mahmoud's comments illustrate, have gone so far as to use this as an
opportunity to scold the one signatory of the DPA. The GOS will
undoubtedly continue to exploit this opportunity politically and
militarily for its own cynical goals in war-torn Darfur. It can
only benefit Khartoum that the two largest armed Zaghawa movements
(one a DPA signatory, one not) have turned against each other and
are both (reportedly) relying on Khartoum for assistance. President
Bashir must be laughing at this miserable folly where rebels fight
each other and the people they are supposed to protect flee to
GOS-controlled areas for safety.

FERNANDEZ