YASIR ARMAN: NCP/SPLM RELATIONS WORSE THAN EVER

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000743 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI ASEC AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: YASIR ARMAN: NCP/SPLM RELATIONS WORSE THAN EVER ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: In a courtesy call with Charge d'Affaires Whitehead on June 10, Deputy Secretary General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM)'s Northern Sector Yasir Arman discussed his party's deteriorating relationship with the National Congress Party (NCP) and outlined the biggest challenges Sudan will face in the upcoming two years. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Arman began the meeting by asserting that the SPLM was "still strong" four years after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA),noting that the NCP sees the SPLM's operations in northern Sudan as "dangerous," especially since the NCP has very little representation in southern Sudan. Arman also proclaimed that tensions have caused the SPLM and NCP's alliance in the Government of National Unity (GNU) to be at its weakest level since 2005. He said this tension recently culminated in former Foreign Minister Lam Akol's formation of a "break-away SPLM faction," a "plot" Arman attributed to the NCP to "confuse SPLM supporters." ¶3. (SBU) Discussing the upcoming Sudanese national elections, Arman said he views them as particularly important to the NCP because an electoral win by Bashir would provide the president with political "protection" and credibility. Arman went on to suggest that the NCP does not act like a traditional political party, but rather exercises a total grip on power, especially in rural areas. He suggested that if this situation continues, Sudan could "end up like Zimbabwe or Kenya." ¶4. (SBU) Moving beyond elections, Arman insisted that a law is needed soon on the referendum scheduled for 2011 on Southern self-determination, and "without the preconditions" proposed by the NCP linking the referendum itself with post-referendum arrangements. Arman claimed that if Sudan does split into two countries, the North/South border will be "the longest in Africa," "with no natural division and many different peoples along it." ¶5. (SBU) Concluding the meeting, Arman noted without irony that Abyei remains the "other burning issue" in Sudan. He stressed the need for a ruling on Abyei's boundaries to come from the arbitration panel in The Hague, but said that to put the issue "to rest" a joint NCP/SPLM team, perhaps involving both the Presidencies of the Government of Sudan and the Government of Southern Sudan, may need to be deployed to the region. On "advice for the U.S. Special Envoy," he made vague reference to the NGO expulsion and warned that the "NCP is expert at creating tactical issues" for people like the Special Envoy to "waste time solving." ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: Constantly a thorn in the NCP's side, Arman continues to openly jab at the SPLM's biggest rival. While he is certainly correct that the NCP appears to be a master at delaying anything that threatens its grip on power, his near-sighted views on a post-referendum strategy for Sudan are troubling and could spell chaos in the years ahead. WHITEHEAD