CDA'S COURTESY CALL ON DUP LEADER AL MIRGHANI

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000735

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C, AF/E
NSC FOR MGAVIN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SOCI ASEC KDEM AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: CDA'S COURTESY CALL ON DUP LEADER AL MIRGHANI


1. SUMMARY. Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Mohammed Osman
al Mirghani complained to Charge Whitehead that the two CPA partners
are ignoring the concerns of Sudan's other political groups.
Despite this, Mirgahani seemed unable to articulate a clear strategy
of how the DUP might compete in the coming elections. This
indecision appears common to all of Sudan's opposition parties.
Only the NCP seems confident it can win through patronage and
partnerships. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On June 7, CDA Whitehead paid a courtesy call on DUP
leader Mirghani at the latter's residence. Charge Whitehead asked
for Mirghani's assessment of the current political situation in
Sudan and the DUP's plans for the scheduled 2010 elections and
afterwards. In response, Mirghani expressed disappointment that the
DUP and other traditional Sudanese parties are not included in
Sudan's Government of National Unity (GNU). He complained the DUP
is largely ignored by both the National Congress Party (NCP) and
Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). Sudan "now has two
masters, one in Khartoum and one in Juba," he stated.


3. (SBU) According to Mirghani, the late SPLM leader John Garang had
consulted with Mirghani during the Naivasha peace negotiations in

2004. Mirghani said that he had argued for a GNU in which all
parties equally participated, but that in the end, the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA) had been negotiated bilaterally between the
NCP and SPLM, to the exclusion of the other parities. Mirghani also
referred to the inter-party "Framework Agreement" negotiated in
Cairo in 2005 under the sponsorship of Egypt. Mirghani complained
that Egypt failed to follow-up after the Agreement was signed, and
that it too was never implemented. Since then, the DUP has been
ignored by the two CPA partners.


4. (SBU) Mirghani is also the hereditary leader of the Khatmiyya
Sufi order. Asked about the relationship between the DUP and
Khatimiyya, Mirghani explained they are separate entities. He
emphasized that the Khatimiyya embody "moderate Islam," reflecting
the Sufi dedication to tolerance and nonviolence. While reflecting
these same ideals, the DUP, he maintained, is broader than the
Khatimiyya order and includes many Sudanese Christians. Mirghani
argued that the DUP is the majority party in Sudan, noting that it
had won the popular vote in every election from Sudan's 1956
independence until a coup brought the National Islamic Front to
power in 1989.


5. (SBU) Asked by the Charge for his views on the DUP's future
electoral prospects, Mirghani replied that while the DUP is not
afraid of the 2010 elections, preparations are starting from the
wrong point. The DUP has submitted its recommendations to the
National Election Commission. He complained that the rules being
drafted for the elections will unfairly favor the NCP. For example,
he said that many potential voters will be discouraged from voting
by having to pay for the required identity card. He added the NCP
plans to pay the cost of ID cards for its supporters, giving it an
advantage. The NCP is unilaterally pushing through rules such as
this that favor it, he charged. If they are to be kept honest, all
of Sudan's parties need to be included in planning the elections.
He emphasized that the DUP had spurned the NCP's proposal to partner
with the DUP in the coming elections. He said that the people of
Sudan deserve a clear choice of who will govern them, rather than
having this decided over their heads. Asked if the DUP would join
the NCP in a coalition after the election, Mirghani replied that it
expects to win the elections outright.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Mirghani seemed much more comfortable describing
the DUP's history and past achievements than in articulating a clear
vision of its goals or future role. Based on his responses, the DUP
appears to lack any clear strategy on how it will compete in the
national elections, NOW scheduled for April 2010. The party instead
appears stuck in a rut, complaining that it does not have a seat at
the existing table. Unfortunately, the DUP is by no means alone in
this. Even the SPLM is undecided about whether it will seriously
contest next year's elections or focus instead on the 2011
referendum on southern independence. Only the NCP appears to be
focused on the elections and confident that it can win, largely by
controlling constituencies through patronage and partnering with
elements of the political opposition.

WHITEHEAD