NCP OFFERS ELECTION STRATEGIES AND STRESSES POST-REFERENDUM

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000726

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C
NSC FOR MGAVIN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: NCP OFFERS ELECTION STRATEGIES AND STRESSES POST-REFERENDUM
STABILITY


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On June 2, CDA Whitehead made introductory calls
on Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salah Eddin as well as NCP strategists
Yahya Babiker and Sayed Al-Khateeb. The NCP praised the Obama
Administration's "new approach" to U.S.-Sudanese relations, provided
some insight into NCP election strategies, and stressed the
importance of stability in approaching the landscape of a
post-referendum Sudan in 2011 and beyond. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Presidential Advisor Dr. Ghazi Salah Eddin welcomed CDA
Whitehead by declaring with a smile that he was pleased to see the
U.S. and Sudan "engaged at this level for the first time in 20
years," noting the recent invitation for the NCP to go to Washington
for a June 23 meeting. Regarding his recently being assigned the
Darfur portfolio, Salah Eddin claimed that the "problem has
ripened," and is "ready for fresh ideas." He stressed that any
solution to the Darfur crisis needs Chadian buy-in, and that talks
in Doha have NOW "bogged down." He added that both sides need to
get away from "minor issues that don't concern Darfuris," citing as
an example the ongoing dispute between the Justice and Equality
Movement and the Government of Sudan over prisoner releases.
Regarding preparations for the June 23 conference in Washington, he
pledged that "the humanitarian issue" involving the international
NGOs would be solved and "out of the way" within the next three
weeks. On Abyei, Salah Eddin said that while both sides had "agreed
in theory" on the outcome of arbitration in The Hague, the issue
remains a "silent crisis."


3. (SBU) Salah Eddin proclaimed "it is in the interest of us all to
hold elections soon," and stated that the NCP's preference would be
to "maintain its alliance with the SPLM" despite what he termed the
SPLM's "unreliability" caused by its "internal factions." Due to
this, Salah Eddin predicted a possible "anti-NCP alliance" scenario
for election day, though he proffered hope that the SPLM might still
take the NCP up on the latter's "fair deal" offer of power- sharing
and resolution of North/South border issues. Asked whom the SPLM
might propose as an anti-NCP alliance candidate, Salah Eddin said
"perhaps someone like Malik Agar, someone who can present himself as
the 'African' candidate and straddle the North/South divide."
Rather ominously, Salah Eddin concluded his discussion of elections
by warning that "we are aware of the divide-and-rule strategy that
the SPLM is NOW using in the South ... and we are better at it than
they are."


4. (SBU) In regard to the 2011 referendum in the south on possible
secession. Salah Eddin hinted that the law governing the process
might be finalized and passed soon, possibly in the next three weeks
(before the CPA Forum Conference in Washington.) However, he warned
that "because of an inappropriate exercise of SPLM power," the
referendum act may lie stagnant in the National Assembly. Salah
Eddin said he believes that, in the end, "secession will happen, but
that the South will suffer for such an emotional choice." He
stressed the need for a coherent plan for stability in a post-2011
Sudan, regardless of the outcome of the referendum.


5. (SBU) At the Center for Strategic Studies, an NCP think-tank, NCP
insiders Yahya Babiker and Sayed Al-Khateeb offered similar views on
the importance of a stable, post-referendum Sudan. On the U.S.
role, the two strategists suggested that an "endorsement of unity"
is needed to "ensure faithful implementation of the Comprehensive
Peace Agreement (CPA)" and that the NCP/SPLM partnership in the
Government of National Unity needs to be "revived" at both the
national and state levels. Should the referendum end up splitting
Sudan in two, Al-Khateeb stated "it might not be the worst possible
outcome... a clean break would be better than a messy unity or a
messy break."


6. (SBU) COMMENT: While all three NCP hands were on message, Salah
Eddin offered the most candid assessment of current political
rumblings within the party. While these NCP officials all expressed
continuing good will toward the U.S. in the wake of Special Envoy
Gration's two visits, it will be interesting to see whether or not
the NCP is able to deliver on both the NGO issue and the referendum
law before the June 23 meeting in Washington. Salah Eddin certainly
appears sincere in his efforts to achieve these goals. During
meetings with the MFA and Humanitarian Assistance Comission (HAC) on
June 4, the GOS announced that due to Dr. Ghazi's personal
intervention, Mercy Corps Scotland and CARE International Geneva
will both be registered within one week; that visas will be approved
expeditiously; and that the HAC will show more flexibility on the
transfer of assets of expelled NGOs to new or existing NGOS, per the
U.S.-Sudan April 10 understanding on humanitarian assistance.

WHITEHEAD