CDA'S COURTESY CALL ON FOREIGN MINISTER DENG ALOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000720 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PRELKPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: CDA'S COURTESY CALL ON FOREIGN MINISTER DENG ALOR REF: A) Khartoum 607 B) Khartoum 500 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Government of National Unity (GNU) Minister of Foreign Affairs Deng Alor said that the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) is keen to attend the June 23rd CPA Forum in Washington, DC, and is willing to meet with the President's Special Envoy to Sudan General Gration in Europe in advance of the Forum in order to discuss desired outcomes. With regard to the ongoing Abyei arbitration at The Hague, Alor said that both the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLM believe that the Court's ruling will be in their favor, thus the final result will be difficult to manage. He noted that the most important thing for the parties to be working on now is reconciliation between the Ngok Dinka and Misseriya in Abyei prior to the Court's ruling. Alor ended by stating that there are many challenging events ahead for the SPLM, including among others the national elections scheduled in early 2010, the southern Sudan Referendum in 2011, border demarcation, the Abyei ruling and the South's dire economic situation due to the decline in oil revenues. Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) President Kiir reshuffled the GoSS Cabinet on May 31 in an effort to put its "house in order" to tackle these and other ongoing and upcoming challenges (septel). End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Charge d'Affaires Whitehead paid a courtesy call on GNU Foreign Minister (FM) Deng Alor on June 1 and used the opportunity to speak with FM Alor about the SPLM's attendance at the June 23 CPA Supporters Forum in Washington, DC. Alor had not yet been briefed about the event, but signaled that the SPLM would attend and most likely be represented by its Secretary General Pagan Amum, Deputy Secretary for the Southern Sector Dr. Anne Itto, and a few others. The FM noted that it would be important for the SPLM to put forward a team that is "knowledgeable" about the "political landscape" of Sudan, and "has the authority to make decisions." He responded positively to the idea of SPLM representatives meeting with Special Envoy Gration in Europe before the June 23rd Forum, stating that "this is important," and "there is interest." The CDA told Alor that the USG seeks the SPLM's recommendations on and desired outcomes from the Conference. He added that the party's pre-Forum meeting with SE Gration would be focused on this. Alor said that he would meet with SPLM Secretary General Amum that evening, and stated that he would discuss the upcoming events with him. Alor dismissed as erroneous local media reports that GNU First Vice President, Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) President, and SPLM Chairman is planning to travel to Washington, DC for meetings at the same time as the June 23rd Conference. ¶3. (SBU) The CDA asked Alor for his views on the ongoing Abyei arbitration at The Hague (retels). Alor, who is an Abyei native and Ngok Dinka, stated that both the SPLM and the NCP believe that the ruling will be in their favor, which will make managing the final outcome difficult. Both side's presentations were "very convincing," said Alor, especially the SPLM's. However, because it is a legal case, the outcome is not guaranteed, he added. The FM noted that the NCP is divided on the issue of the pending Abyei ruling. "Some say that the outcome will not be final and that a new dialogue will have to be opened," and others believe that regardless of the outcome, reconciliation between the Ngok Dinka and the Misseriya should take place immediately in order to prepare for the outcome. He noted: "I see the latter as more serious; this is the logical thing that must be done." The FM also stated there is a third group in favor of delinking oil wealth-sharing from border demarcation. This is a way forward that has also been proposed by the UK and Norway. The third group, however, is linking negotiations on post-2011 arrangements between the North and the South with the southern Sudan Referendum Law, which Alor said he thought was not t right. . The Referendum Law is legal; the post-2011 arrangements (including wealth-sharing, grazing rights, Nile water-sharing, debt repayment, and others) are political. The two should be separated, said Alor ¶4. (SBU) The FM reported that Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) Chairman Sir Derek Plumbly continues to try and convince the SPLM and the NCP to negotiate a political settlement on the boundaries of Abyei in advance of the release of The Hague arbitration decision (ref A). "We [the SPLM] would rather wait for The Hague now," said Alor. We are "tired" of discussing Abyei's borders with the NCP. "We will accept the outcome of The Hague's arbitration," he added. "Plumbly's proposal is useful and we [the SPLM] are ready to discuss post-2011 wealth-sharing with the NCP, so long as it is delinked from our discussions with them on the Referendum Law," said Alor. However, Alor emphasized that the SPLM is not ready to discuss a 10-year wealth sharing period post-2011. "That reminds me of the initial CPA discussions, when the NCP wanted a 10-year interim period." [Note: A ruling on whether the Abyei KHARTOUM 00000720 002 OF 002 Border Commission exceeded its mandate is expected during the last week of July. End note.] ¶5. (SBU) Alor told the CDA, who he described as "no stranger" to Sudan, that the SPLM will engage with him often, particularly because the "coming period is very sensitive" with regard to the elections, referendum, border demarcation, the Abyei ruling, the South's dire economic situation, and the International Criminal Court (ICC) indictments. He noted that the GoSS had rejected the 2008 national census results because of what appeared to the SPLM to be manipulation of the northern and southern data by the NCP. "We have rejected that the census data can be used for power-sharing at the national level, but I think this can be resolved between the parties," he noted. Alor added that GoSS President Kiir's May 31 re-shuffling of the GoSS Cabinet was in an effort to put the South's "house in order" for what are no doubt tough battles ahead (septel). ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Foreign Minister Alor's comment that the SPLM prefers an arbitrated result to a political settlement with the NCP on Abyei's boundaries suggests that the SPLM believes that The Hague ruling will certainly result in its favor. Unfortunately, the NCP believes the same. There will undoubtedly be a fall-out from the final result of the arbitration given that neither side views itself as on the losing side of the win-lose battle. Alor, however, is correct to point out that regardless of the result, the most important thing for the parties to do is to reasonably manage expectations of the local populations living on the ground - the African Ngok Dinka and the Arab Misseriya. Reconciliation between the two groups is vitally important both before the ruling and after it, so that peace can be sustained in this volatile, oil-rich region, which is prone to violent clashes between its inhabitants (particularly when stoked by political forces.) Another armed clash between the North and South in Abyei, such as the one that occurred in May 2008, could quickly spiral out of control and potentially threaten the entire North-South peace. The proposal that AEC Chairman Ambassador Plumbly has presented to the CPA parties, to separate land from oil and ensure the rights of all who rely on the land for even part of the year, presents a possible way forward that has general support in its broad outlines. For now, though, both parties are content to wait for the arbitration result and are tired of negotiations on this issue. In order to avoid conflict following the announcement of the arbitration results, however, it will be important to reassure the affected populations of their traditional rights to the land. End Comment. WHITEHEAD