JEM ASSAULTS GOS IN UMM BARRO, MINNAWI ON STANDBY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000684

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C
NSC FOR MGAVIN
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: JEM ASSAULTS GOS IN UMM BARRO, MINNAWI ON STANDBY


1. (SBU) Summary: JEM forces clashed with GOS forces on May 24 in
Umm Barro, North Darfur, forcing Sudanese soldiers to seek refuge at
the UNAMID team site there, with JEM subsequently retreating back
behind the Chadian border. Up to 300 civilians have sought refuge
at the team site as well. Minni Minnawi reported JEM did not attack
his forces, but anticipates his movement will be drawn into conflict
with JEM in the future. According to the UN, dynamics in Darfur do
not favor JEM success in the short term, but do indicate that the
Chad-based Darfuri rebel faction will continue its attacks on
Sudanese military installations. End summary.


2. (SBU) UNAMID sources told poloff that on May 24, a sophisticated
attack of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) displaced Sudanese
Armed Forces (SAF) from Umm Barru, resulting in significant
casualties from both sides. According to UNDSS, JEM may have
received strategic support for the attack from Chadian military, as
three separate waves of JEM attackers assaulted the minor SAF
outpost in Umm Barru (however the direct involvement of the Chadian
military has not been confirmed by UNAMID). UNAMID has not yet been
able to confirm the number of serious casualties on either side, but
following the combat, ten injured SAF soldiers sought treatment at
the UNAMID team site in Umm Barru. In addition to approximately 300
civilians who arrived at the UNAMID team site there after the
fighting, it was also reported that 100 unarmed GOS combatants
sought refuge in the team site, possibly after fleeing from combat.


3. (SBU) Meeting with poloff in El Fasher on May 25, Minni Minnawi
said that JEM forces did not engage his Sudanese Liberation ARMY
(SLA) forces in Umm Barro, located in the heart of Dar Zaghawa. "We
were not involved, but we will be involved" in clashes with JEM in
the future, Minnawi foresaw, "JEM will force us to war." The most
recent information from Minnawi's forces in Umm Barro indicated that
JEM had immediately withdrawn back to Chad after the attack had
ended. Confident that SLA/Minnawi forces had repulsed the May 9 JEM
assault on Umm Barro, Minnawi was tight-lipped as to how his
movement would respond, but said his movement would not hesitate to
attack JEM in "self-defense." Minnawi said he may fly to Khartoum
on May 26 to meet with GOS Vice President Ali Osman Taha to discuss
the situation in Darfur. (Note: UNAMID reported on May 25 that
SLA/Minnawi field combatants are now receiving both food and
ammunition from the GOS (protect). End note.)

4. (SBU) UN Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in
El Fasher reported to aidoff on May 25 that due to the recent
fighting in the western reaches of North Darfur, Darfuri civilians
have begun collecting in recent days near the UNAMID team site in
Umm Barro. As of May 25, UN-OCHA reported that slightly over 300
IDPs relocated to the team site, up from 230 IDPs the previous day.
At the present time no humanitarian assistance is being provided
with the exception of limited water supplies from UNAMID, and the
newly-displaced IDPs are cooking and providing their own supplies.
UNAMID's main concern remains that sanitation in the area is
limited, as there are no latrines or sanitation facilities
available. Umm Barro falls under the control of UNAMID West sector,
and according to UNAMID, Sector West is developing a contingency
plan in the event of further deterioration in the security
situation.

5. (SBU) JEM's attack on Umm Barro, and their subsequent retreat
back into Chad, mark the third time Khalil Ibrahim's faction has
assaulted the Sudanese frontier in as many weeks, only to retreat.
According to the UN, JEM is stymied by internal and external
dynamics that are proving disadvantageous to them. Reports from the
field suggest that Suleiman Jamous, the former SLA/Unity commander
who defected to JEM in April of this year, has not succeeded in
attracting as many low-level fighters as expected. JEM's continued
inability to bring on key "free agents" among the Darfuri rebel
commanders (including Ali Karbino, Abdullah Banda and Abubakr Kado)
indicate that JEM will be unable to take territory in Darfur and
hold it in the short term. Additionally, JEM's losses are already
proving to be the GOS's gain, as several sources in El Fasher have
reported that Sudanese authorities have recently been seen in El
Fasher driving brand-new Chadian vehicles abandoned by JEM in their
battles over the past few weeks.


6. (SBU) Comment: JEM's scattered May offensives on remote locations
in North Darfur have yet to yield any significant gains for the
faction, and the GOS has reacted with uncommon restraint. However,
if JEM demonstrates that it intends to move toward other major
targets further into Darfur or other parts of Sudan, the GOS will
inevitably begin bombing JEM locations heavily, as they did before
JEM's May 2008 attack on Omdurman. With JEM intent on proving its
military capacity through targeted attacks and hasty retreats, it
appears that the movement may be attempting to strengthen its hand
at negotiations in Doha. Although it does not control any territory
in Darfur, JEM is the only movement currently inflicting any damage
on the government and this may force the government eventually to

KHARTOUM 00000684 002 OF 002


agree to JEM's demands of prisoner releases in the hopes of reaching
a ceasefire. Alternatively, if the government is gaining Land
Cruisers, it may be content to allow JEM to continue these isolated
assaults while waiting for the mud-enforced ceasefire of the rainy
season to begin in June/July.

ASQUINO