JEM ASSAULTS GOS IN UMM BARRO, MINNAWI ON STANDBY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000684 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: JEM ASSAULTS GOS IN UMM BARRO, MINNAWI ON STANDBY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: JEM forces clashed with GOS forces on May 24 in Umm Barro, North Darfur, forcing Sudanese soldiers to seek refuge at the UNAMID team site there, with JEM subsequently retreating back behind the Chadian border. Up to 300 civilians have sought refuge at the team site as well. Minni Minnawi reported JEM did not attack his forces, but anticipates his movement will be drawn into conflict with JEM in the future. According to the UN, dynamics in Darfur do not favor JEM success in the short term, but do indicate that the Chad-based Darfuri rebel faction will continue its attacks on Sudanese military installations. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) UNAMID sources told poloff that on May 24, a sophisticated attack of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) displaced Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) from Umm Barru, resulting in significant casualties from both sides. According to UNDSS, JEM may have received strategic support for the attack from Chadian military, as three separate waves of JEM attackers assaulted the minor SAF outpost in Umm Barru (however the direct involvement of the Chadian military has not been confirmed by UNAMID). UNAMID has not yet been able to confirm the number of serious casualties on either side, but following the combat, ten injured SAF soldiers sought treatment at the UNAMID team site in Umm Barru. In addition to approximately 300 civilians who arrived at the UNAMID team site there after the fighting, it was also reported that 100 unarmed GOS combatants sought refuge in the team site, possibly after fleeing from combat. ¶3. (SBU) Meeting with poloff in El Fasher on May 25, Minni Minnawi said that JEM forces did not engage his Sudanese Liberation Army (SLA) forces in Umm Barro, located in the heart of Dar Zaghawa. "We were not involved, but we will be involved" in clashes with JEM in the future, Minnawi foresaw, "JEM will force us to war." The most recent information from Minnawi's forces in Umm Barro indicated that JEM had immediately withdrawn back to Chad after the attack had ended. Confident that SLA/Minnawi forces had repulsed the May 9 JEM assault on Umm Barro, Minnawi was tight-lipped as to how his movement would respond, but said his movement would not hesitate to attack JEM in "self-defense." Minnawi said he may fly to Khartoum on May 26 to meet with GOS Vice President Ali Osman Taha to discuss the situation in Darfur. (Note: UNAMID reported on May 25 that SLA/Minnawi field combatants are now receiving both food and ammunition from the GOS (protect). End note.) ¶4. (SBU) UN Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in El Fasher reported to aidoff on May 25 that due to the recent fighting in the western reaches of North Darfur, Darfuri civilians have begun collecting in recent days near the UNAMID team site in Umm Barro. As of May 25, UN-OCHA reported that slightly over 300 IDPs relocated to the team site, up from 230 IDPs the previous day. At the present time no humanitarian assistance is being provided with the exception of limited water supplies from UNAMID, and the newly-displaced IDPs are cooking and providing their own supplies. UNAMID's main concern remains that sanitation in the area is limited, as there are no latrines or sanitation facilities available. Umm Barro falls under the control of UNAMID West sector, and according to UNAMID, Sector West is developing a contingency plan in the event of further deterioration in the security situation. ¶5. (SBU) JEM's attack on Umm Barro, and their subsequent retreat back into Chad, mark the third time Khalil Ibrahim's faction has assaulted the Sudanese frontier in as many weeks, only to retreat. According to the UN, JEM is stymied by internal and external dynamics that are proving disadvantageous to them. Reports from the field suggest that Suleiman Jamous, the former SLA/Unity commander who defected to JEM in April of this year, has not succeeded in attracting as many low-level fighters as expected. JEM's continued inability to bring on key "free agents" among the Darfuri rebel commanders (including Ali Karbino, Abdullah Banda and Abubakr Kado) indicate that JEM will be unable to take territory in Darfur and hold it in the short term. Additionally, JEM's losses are already proving to be the GOS's gain, as several sources in El Fasher have reported that Sudanese authorities have recently been seen in El Fasher driving brand-new Chadian vehicles abandoned by JEM in their battles over the past few weeks. ¶6. (SBU) Comment: JEM's scattered May offensives on remote locations in North Darfur have yet to yield any significant gains for the faction, and the GOS has reacted with uncommon restraint. However, if JEM demonstrates that it intends to move toward other major targets further into Darfur or other parts of Sudan, the GOS will inevitably begin bombing JEM locations heavily, as they did before JEM's May 2008 attack on Omdurman. With JEM intent on proving its military capacity through targeted attacks and hasty retreats, it appears that the movement may be attempting to strengthen its hand at negotiations in Doha. Although it does not control any territory in Darfur, JEM is the only movement currently inflicting any damage on the government and this may force the government eventually to KHARTOUM 00000684 002 OF 002 agree to JEM's demands of prisoner releases in the hopes of reaching a ceasefire. Alternatively, if the government is gaining Land Cruisers, it may be content to allow JEM to continue these isolated assaults while waiting for the mud-enforced ceasefire of the rainy season to begin in June/July. ASQUINO