A BREAK IN THE QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT: GOC FORCES AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000652 DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A/S CARSON, AF/C NSC FOR MGAVIN DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: A BREAK IN THE QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT: GOC FORCES AND JEM PUSH INTO SUDANESE TERRITORY REF: A) KHARTOUM 621 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: There was conflict in Darfur on two fronts during May 14-17. On May 14, Government of Chad (GOC) forces pursued Chadian rebels into West Darfur, and unidentified aircraft bombed Chadian rebel encampments on May 15-16 near the Sudanese village of Sarow, 25 kilometers south of Mukjar. In North Darfur, unconfirmed reports indicated that Government of Sudan (GOS) forces lost territory to rebels from the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) on May 15-16, and unidentified aircraft and a column of JEM vehicles were spotted moving into Darfur near the towns of Tina and Karnoi. Rebel sources claimed that SLA/MM and the GOS were unable to defend Um Barru from JEM. -------------- UNAMID CONFIRMS WEST DARFUR BOMBING MAY 14-15 -------------- ¶2. (SBU) According to multiple UNAMID sources, on May 14 at around noon, a retreating group of Chadian rebels was pursued by the GoC army and ambushed near Juguma el Garbiya, some 60 km southwest of Bendisi, inside Sudanese territory. The rebels dispersed with some fleeing to Garsila, and others to Mukjar and other locations. Some of them arrived in Mukjar at around 18:00, and later that evening some of the injured were sent to hospitals in Garsila and Nyala.QLargu grnup3 oF Chcdian rubelr0rgpoqpe` an W%st D`Bfr ousmdeQqpoo,060k$_uth$QfMw+ja*`Cbombing followed later that afternoon. One source told UNAMID he subsequently observed two Chadian rebel Land Cruisers with some 18 soldiers outside Mukjar. The rebels reportedly were buying food in the Mukjar market when they were advised by security services to move their vehicles outside of town to avoid possible bombing by the GOC. ¶3. (SBU) On May 16, UNAMID sent a verification patrol to the area to verify the reports of the bombings. The patrol team halted at a village called Salaf Saada (13 km from Mukjar) and interacted with the local sheik, who confirmed that the villages heard the bombing. The UNAMID patrol proceeded to Duldul, where the team spoke with local Arab nomads who stated that on May 15 at approximately 08:00, two black aircraft (type unknown, but presumably fixed wing) dropped several bombs at a mountain called Jabel Safu. Later that day at ;approximately 13:00, two aircraft again dropped bombs near Sarow, where the Chadian rebels had regrouped the previous evening. On May 16, local residents there spotted two white aircraft flying over the area, and at about 13:00 they heard bombings in the direction of Sarow. The UNAMID verification patrol could see the hill in the distance. The hilltop and its slopes were burnt, they could not establish the cause of the burning. They also could not climb to the top of the hill due to the rugged nature of its terrain. There was no clear evidence to indicate where the aircraft were coming from. Additional residents confirmed that the aircraft that carried out the alleged strike on May 15 were black, while the ones that carried out the alleged strike on May 16 were white. -------------- JEM ALLEGEDLY TAKES KARNOI, UM BARRO -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Meanwhile, UNAMID received unconfirmed reports on May 17 of continued clashes in western North Darfur near the key towns of Tina, Karnoi and Um Barro, in disputed SLA/Minnawi territory. Following clashes last week between the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and SLA/Minnawi (reftel),UNAMID sources also indicated fighting in North Darfur between Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and JEM on May 15 in Karnoi, approximately 20 km from the Chadian border. The Sultan of Tina (a Sudanese garrison town on the Chadian border) told UNAMID that the GOS encampment there had been taken over by JEM on May 15, and GOS survivors were allegedly retreating from Tina. The same source also alleged that on May 16 at approximately 19:00, a long column of vehicles supposedly belonging to JEM was sighted crossing the Chadian border into Sudan and moving toward Karnoi. On the evening of May 16, UNAMID observed several unidentified aircraft entering Sudanese airspace. The first was seen flying in the direction of El Fasher, and several hours later a second was observed flying at a high altitude from the opposite direction, towards Chad, with its lights out. (Note: Post recognizes that these observations are inconclusive and cannot be substantiated. We pass them along for what they are worth in the KHARTOUM 00000652 002 OF 002 interest of providing additional details on what remains a murky situation along the Chad-Sudan border. End note.) ¶5. (SBU) Numerous sources associated with Darfuri rebel factions indicated that fighting continues to rage in the area of Dar Zaghawa, and by the afternoon of May 17, no sources indicated that SLA/MM still occupied any territory in western North Darfur. Ahmed Hassan Bahar of SLA/MM told polasst on May 17 that beginning on May 9, SLA/MM initially defeated JEM forces, but upon pursuing them, SLA/MM fighters fell into a JEM ambush in which a number of SLA/MM fighters were killed and their equipment seized. SLA/AW commander Abdullah Khalil told polasst on May 17 that JEM now controls the former SLA/MM base Um Barru (visited by Special Envoy Williamson in August 2008,) and from there territory east to Shegeg Karo and west to Karnoi. (Note: These are remote areas in the heart of Dar Zaghawa that are now largely deserted by their former occupants as a result of the war. End note.) ¶6. (SBU) Sources within SLA/Minnawi describe their movement as struggling to determine a new strategy following last week's clashes with JEM. Some have indicated that the movement is wavering between pulling back from its remaining territory, or attacking JEM's positions (to be reported in septel.) ¶7. (SBU) Comment: If the deserted towns of western North Darfur fall into the hands of Khalil Ibrahim's JEM (as events indicate they may,) this will represent a defeat not only for Minni Minnawi, whose hometown is Um Barru, but also for the SAF, whose garrison towns form the first line of defense against any rebel march to El Fasher and beyond. It is unclear what JEM's next steps will be, however, as JEM will hardly endear itself to the people of Darfur by causing chaos through an attack on El Fasher or any other town in Darfur or Sudan. More likely, JEM is trying to eliminate its primary Zaghawa rival (Minnawi) while also showing (somewhat weakly) that it does actually control some remote territory in Darfur. It should be noted that until three weeks ago, JEM was not physically present in Darfur (since it limped back across the border in March following its February raid on Muhajaria in South Darfur). ¶8. (SBU) Comment Cont.: The situation with the Chadian rebels in West Darfur bears watching in the context of the Sudan-Chad proxy war. The GOS protested formally to P-5 COMs on May 15 and in a one-on-one with acting CDA Asquino on May 16. In those meetings, the GOS noted that until now it has reacted with "restraint" to the Chadian aerial bombings in Sudan (without mentioning that the GOC is attacking Chadian rebels on Sudanese territory who until recently were involved in armed skirmishes in Chad.) In the past the GOS has pointed to Chadian incursions as a way to justify an increase in its own aerial bombing of JEM positions; we expect to see increased GOS surveillance and bombing of JEM's newly-acquired positions in North Darfur in the coming days. End comment. ASQUINO