CODEL KERRY'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER DENG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000548 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/C, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2014 TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID SOCI KPKO KDEM AU UNSC SU CD, LY, UG SUBJECT: CODEL KERRY'S MEETING WITH FOREIGN MINISTER DENG ALOR Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Alberto M. Fernandez for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On April 16, FM Deng Alor welcomed Senator Kerry,s assurances that the United States is anxious to reengage with Sudan and he urged that the U.S. take the lead in seeking a solution to the Darfur conflict. They agreed that a fully-implemented CPA could serve as the foundation for peace in Darfur as well. Senator Kerry strongly endorsed Special Envoy Gration as a capable representative of the Obama Administration. FM Alor reviewed the challenges facing the Government of Southern Sudan and the continuing struggle with the Lord's Resistance Army. He told Kerry that it is becoming increasingly difficult to convince the people of southern Sudan that continued national unity post-2011 is worth pursuing and warned that if the south secedes, the rest of Sudan could disintegrate. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) Senator John M. Kerry met with Foreign Minister Deng Alor on April 16. Accompanying the Senator were CDA Fernandez, Teresa Heinz-Kerry, Senate staffers Frank Lowenstein and Shannon Smith, and emboffs. Senator Kerry told FM Alor that he regretted not being able to meet with Government of National Unity (GNU) First VP and President of South Sudan Salva Kiir on this visit, but said that he planned to do so when he stops in Juba on his next trip (and spoke with Kiir by phone following the meeting with FM Alor). FM Alor presented Senator Kerry with a letter from VP Kiir, regretting that he was not able to meet with Senator Kerry in Khartoum. Chance for Renewed Dialogue - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) Senator Kerry told the Foreign Minister that he was delivering the same message in all of his meetings in Khartoum; that with a new administration in Washington there is an opportunity for the United States and Sudan to reengage. He noted that Presidential Special Envoy Gration is proposing trilateral NCP-SPLM-U.S. discussions on how to move forward on the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and that the U.S. is anxious to begin these discussions. The Senator said that he believes things now are headed in the wrong direction and if this trajectory does not change, Sudan could drift back into civil war. ¶4. (C) FM Alor agreed with the Senator's assessment, and said that VP Kiir had told SE Gration that it was because of the United States that the CPA was negotiated, but that the U.S. has since been absent during its implementation. It is time for the U.S. to reengage. Senator Kerry said that, although he had followed Sudanese issues for some time, he only had recently read the CPA in its entirety and had been impressed at the significance of many of the its provisions. The problem was implementation. He praised SE Gration as fair and thoughtful and said he will be a good representative for President Obama to Sudan. Complex Equation in Darfur - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 (C) FM Alor said that the Darfur rebels constantly ask what guarantee is there that any peace agreement will be honored if the CPA, made with Sudan's strongest former rebel group, is not implemented? If we can fully implement the CPA, it will send a good signal to Darfur, he said. Kerry agreed that the trust between the parties is not there. If the issues can be discussed honestly, it will build the needed trust. Deng Alor commented that the NCP had expected certain things from the U.S. when the CPA was signed that were not done. He added that on its recent visit to Washington, the SPLM delegation had urged the Obama Administration to take the lead in Darfur negotiations. U.S. engagement would give confidence to both the GNU and the rebel movements, he said. ¶6. (C) Senator Kerry asked, how can the equation in Darfur can be changed? FM Alor replied that first, there must be a sustained ceasefire, monitored by UNAMID. Second, a peace process must begin, similar to the one that negotiated the CPA. Finally, the humanitarian situation of the IDPs must be addressed. He noted that during the north-south civil war, most IDPs had fled the South to either northern Sudan or neighboring countries. There had been no big IDP camps in the south, as there are now in Darfur. KHARTOUM 00000548 002 OF 003 ¶7. (C) In response to Senator Kerry,s question about the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM),FM Alor said that it will be difficult to get them to come to the negotiating table. He noted that JEM,s agenda is national in scope, not limited to Darfur, and that it is not far from the NCP ideologically. The GNU has urged JEM to continue the negotiating process begun at Doha, but JEM appears reluctant. JEM believes that it is only a matter of time until the GoS loses control and that it can wait, Alor said. Asked whether pressure could be brought on JEM via Chad, the Foreign minister noted that JEM needs its base in Chad from which to operate, but that Chad will not abandon JEM as long as the GoC believes that Khartoum is seeking its overthrow. FM Alor continued that Libya is another important player in Darfur, but that Khartoum does not understand what Libya,s interests are and so is not sure how to address them. Although Sudan has sporadically talked with Chad, it has not really engaged Libya. ¶8. (C) Asked about the other rebel movements, the Foreign Minister said that the interests of the various Darfur ethic groups will need to be addressed. He stated that a system of power sharing is the only way to satisfy the feelings of marginalization that were the original cause of the rebellion. Senator Kerry asked whether the CPA formula of a national census and elections is the answer. Deng Alor responded that the results of the census, including in Darfur, are proving contentious. ¶9. (C) Senator Kerry pointed out that many other steps still need to be taken in order for the national elections scheduled for February 2010 to be carried out successfully: adopting necessary legislation, demarcating the north-south border, and voter registration. Is there time to do all that, he wondered? FM Alor stated that there is time, if there is the will to do so. He commented that the proposed tripartite dialogue could help. Challenges in South Sudan - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶10. (C) The Senator asked FM Alor to prioritize for him the challenges facing the Government of South Sudan (GoSS). The Foreign Minister cited the lack of post-war reconstruction and investment in infrastructure. He admitted that the GoSS remains dependent on oil revenues for almost all its income, and that these are spent almost entirely on salaries. Because of the lack of a robust private sector in the south, the GoSS is the only employer. ¶11. (C) Senator Kerry asked how the GoSS could handle these challenges if its people voted for independence in 2011? The Foreign Minister responded that, in the first civil war which began in 1955, the South had fought for independence. The second civil war in 1983 had spawned the SPLM, founded on the Garang vision of a &New Sudan8 that would be democratic and united. The SPLM continues to believe that unity is the best option, he said, but the people of the South now can see no basis for unity. With only 21 months remaining before the referendum on southern self-determination, it is becoming increasingly difficult for the SPLM leadership to convince itself, let alone the people of the South, that unity remains attractive, he said. ¶12. (C) Returning to preparations for national elections, Senator Kerry asked how long it will take to register voters in the South and about progress on demarcating the North-South border. FM Alor noted that, in addition, the dispute over the Abyei boundary is pending and that an arbitration decision is expected in June or July of this year. Kerry asked whether the NCP can be expected to respect whatever decision is made. CDA Fernandez commented that the NCP had thus far obstructed implementation of the Abyei Roadmap agreement of last June by failing to fund the Abyei Interim Administration (AIA) budget. FM Alor added that to avoid renewed conflict, the international community should find some way to support the AIA financially. ¶13. (C) The Senator then asked about the GNU,s decision to expel the international NGOs. Did FM Alor believe the NGOs had overstepped their mandates? Alor replied that he had not been party to the decision and had not been shown the evidence allegedly justifying their expulsion. He said he did not know the precise reasons for which the NGOs were KHARTOUM 00000548 003 OF 003 expelled. LRA Developments - - - - - - - - - ¶14. (C) At the Senator's request, FM Alor reviewed for him developments regarding the Lord's Resistance Army. Alor stated that the LRA must be getting support from "some external source" (hinting in an obvious way that he suspected the NCP). Since the signing of the CPA, the LRA had continued to receive supplies and had shifted their base of operation from the East to the West of the Nile. The GoSS had engaged President Museveni of Uganda and persuaded him to negotiate with the LRA. After two years of talks, LRA leader Kony had refused to sign the final agreement. At that point, Uganda and the GoSS decided to pursue a military solution instead. CDA Fernandez commented that some believe the NCP supported the LRA during the civil war and that some still suspect the NCP of supporting the LRA even now. Post-2011, &Sudan Could Disintegrate8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶15. (C) To Senator Kerry,s question about what, beyond the tripartite discussions on the CPA, is the most important issue on the table, FM Alor answered unequivocally &Darfur.8 He said that if southerners do vote for independence in 2011, there is the real possibility that the rest of Sudan could disintegrate. Senator Kerry assured Alor that President Obama is engaged on Sudan and that there also is a lot of interest in Congress. What the U.S. seeks is a fair, thoughtful process that resolving real problems. Comment - - - - ¶16. (C) Senator Kerry,s meeting with FM Deng Alor was one of two opportunities to confer in person with a senior SPLM official during his visit (he had dinner with senior SPLM officials Yassir Arman and Mansour Khalid at CDA's residence). Although FM Alor was somewhat constrained in what he could say by the presence of NCP Foreign Ministry officials at the meeting, he provided a frank assessment of developments and the challenges facing the U.S. efforts to engage. Alor was highly supportive of the tripartite mechanism advocated by Senator Kerry (which had been proposed by SE Gration a week earlier). During a phone call with GOSS President Salva Kiir an hour later, Kiir was supportive of the concept as well. Our sense is that both parties (NCP and SPLM) see some value in the proposed U.S.-NCP-SPLM tripartite mechanism, but will not want the U.S. to attend all negotiations between the parties - lest they be exposed or embarrassed by the other party for their respective failings on CPA implementation or forced to reveal their (still) poorly defined strategies on elections and the referendum. The NCP sees this as an opportunity to woo the USG from its perceived pro-SPLM stance, while the SPLM wants to use the USG as a club to beat the NCP into speeding up CPA implementation on key issues like Abyei and border demarcation that will be essential for an independent South. FERNANDEZ