SENATOR KERRY MEETS WITH UNMIS SRSG QAZI AND AEC CHAIRMAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000536

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TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI KPKO ASEC AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: SENATOR KERRY MEETS WITH UNMIS SRSG QAZI AND AEC CHAIRMAN
PLUMBLY

Refs: A) Khartoum 512
B) Khartoum 477
C) Khartoum 306


1. (SBU) Summary. Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC)
Chairman and former UK Ambassador to Egypt Sir Derek Plumbly and
UNMIS Special Representative to the Secretary General (SRSG) Ashraf
Qazi told Senator John Kerry that the USG should continue its course
of positive engagement and its leverage with the Government of Sudan
(GoS) and use it to urge both the North and the South to urgently
implement the CPA. Qazi and Plumbly noted that since the signing of
the CPA, the National Congress Party (NCP),the Sudan People's
Liberation Movement (SPLM),and the international community have
shifted their attention away from the north/south peace agreement
and focused instead on other issues such as the ICC and Darfur.
They urged that all parties not lose sight of the importance of CPA
implementation (nor the potentially disastrous consequences if it
fails),and warned that potential north/south flashpoints such as
border demarcation, Abyei, and post-2011 wealth-sharing must be
solved before the 2011 southern Sudan referendum. Chairman Plumbly
applauded Special Envoy Gration's idea of instituting high-level
trilateral (USG, NCP, and SPLM) talks to get movement on CPA
implementation. Both diplomats said that now is the time for the
U.S. to make progress on the CPA implementation and other issues,
particularly with the NCP, and recommended that the USG do so by
using carrots rather than sticks. End Summary.

ENCOURAGE THE PARTIES TO RE-FOCUS ON THE CPA
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2. (SBU) The strong message conveyed to SFRC Chairman John Kerry by
both UNMIS SRSG Ashraf Qazi and AEC Chairman Sir Derek Plumbly was
that the U.S. must find a way to encourage the National Congress
Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) to
re-focus on and re-commit to the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement
(CPA). On April 16, AEC Chairman Plumbly told Kerry that the
attention of both parties, as well as the international guarantors
of the CPA, has shifted away from CPA implementation to the more
immediate pressures of Darfur and the ICC. With only 20 months left
until the 2011 referendum on self-determination for the South (and
the end of the CPA's interim period),neither of the parties can
afford to be distracted from implementing vital pieces of the
agreement that are imperative to keeping the north/south peace. If
the CPA is ignored and ultimately unravels, and there is a return to
war, Sudan could face a huge humanitarian catastrophe, warned AEC
Chairman Plumbly.


3. (SBU) Plumbly described the partnership between the NCP and the
SPLM as "ragged", plagued by great mistrust and skepticism.
Both parties easily misread signals, he said. Neither party desires
a return to war because of the economic and developmental
ramifications it would have, but they consistently try to undermine
each other politically, he continued. SRSG Qazi agreed that neither
the SPLM nor the NCP want a return to war, but pointed out that the
parties are not always in control of what happens on the ground.
"Tensions build at the local level and draw in elements of the Sudan
Armed Forces (SAF) and the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA),
their headquarters, and hardliners within the parties" and incidents
occur that the parties are not able to control, he explained.


4. (SBU) Plumbly told Senator Kerry that he should highlight the
importance of engagement in his meetings with the NCP. Special
Envoy Gration "helped us [the international community] recover from
our loss of credibility" due to the ICC indictment of GNU President
Al-Bashir, thus you should engage with the parties on the CPA
deliverables that immediately need to be handled: the census
outcome, the results of the Abyei arbitration, wealth-sharing, and
border demarcation. Plumbly characterized border demarcation and
Abyei as the most difficult items for the parties to resolve (the
Abyei issue also requires border demarcation). He noted that while
wealth-sharing has been the most successfully-implemented CPA
benchmark to date, its functionality is in jeopardy because of the
worldwide economic crisis coupled with falling oil prices, which has
left Sudan with very little money, and both the North and the South
in bad economic shape (particularly the South). Plumbly stated that
at the end of 2008, the North owed the South approximately USD 306
million in oil arrears (which have still yet to be paid). According
to the Chairman, managing the census outcome will be the least
difficult CPA benchmark for the parties to achieve because of a
political deal for power-sharing they have already worked out. He
warned, however, that "All of these things put the elections and the
referendum at risk if they are not resolved."


5. (SBU) SRSG Qazi emphasized that it is also important for the

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parties to resolve pending legislation on media/press, national
security, and the referendum. Reformed legislation on media/press
and national security will increase the capacity for free and fair
elections. Qazi stated that the parties should be encouraged to
reach agreement very soon on the referendum law for southern Sudan.
Currently, there is no movement on the law because the NCP has
demanded that the SPLM negotiate on post-2011 arrangements for oil
revenue sharing, water-sharing, debt repayment, and other items
before agreeing to the modalities of the law (i.e. - who has the
right to vote in the referendum, where the Referendum Commission
should be based, the make-up of the Commission, etc.). If the
referendum law is not passed soon, the referendum risks being
conducted significantly behind schedule, just like the national
elections. [Note: The CPA envisioned elections by July 2009, but
they have been rescheduled for February 2010 due to GNU legislative
delays and a lack of will by both parties to hold elections at all.
End note]. Both Qazi and Plumbly noted that the outcome of the
referendum vote for southern Sudan will almost certainly result in
separation.

SUPPORT FOR A USG-LED TRILATERAL CPA MECHANISM
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6. (SBU) Plumbly provided an overview of the consensus-based AEC
structure for Senator Kerry. He said that the AEC has found that
the only way to move things forward between the parties is to avoid
apportioning blame. The only real AEC achievement he could point to
during his time as Chairman was the group's submission of a mid-term
report. He added that the AEC has also been useful in bringing the
parties to the table when an urgent crisis - such as the May 2008
fighting in Abyei and the April 2008 delay of the census by the
South - occurred. Kerry asked Plumbly if it would be helpful for
the USG to engage the SPLM and the NCP in a consistent high-level
three-party discussion on CPA implementation. Plumbly responded
that such a mechanism would be "extremely helpful," and pledged that
the AEC would cooperate with such a structure. "The ICC indictment
of Bashir caused the international community to lose most of its
leverage with the Government of Sudan (GoS)," said Plumbly. "SE
Gration's visit restored a great deal of that leverage," he
continued. With Gration's visit and offer of U.S. engagement with
the GoS, the "North expects that things could get better for them"
even after the blow of the ICC. Plumbly said the international
community dealt a blow to the GoS regime with "the biggest stick it
could craft" by indicting GoS President Al-Bashir. Plumbly noted
that (likely) as a result the wounded Bashir did not once mention
the word "CPA" in his opening speech to Parliament on April 13,
partly as a punishment to the SPLM for its stance on the ICC issue
(ref A). Al-Bashir did, however, have good things to say about the
Obama Administration. This is the time for the USG to use carrots,
not sticks, Plumbly recommended.

THE DARFUR FACTOR
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7. (SBU) Senator Kerry asked Plumbly and Qazi how Darfur, and in
particular the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) rebel group,
might play into an unraveling CPA scenario. Qazi noted that JEM
would certainly capitalize on such a turn of events and referred to
JEM's April 2008 attack on Omdurman, which took even the GoS by
surprise. JEM is "essentially a military force" based in Chad that
has very little political support in Sudan and even in Darfur, said
Qazi. It constitutes an isolated military threat, but not a
political threat, to the NCP. CDA Fernandez added that while the
NCP seeks to "neutralize" JEM, the SPLM "plays footsie" with it (and
other rebel groups) in event of a serious negative turn in relations
with the North. CDA made the point that both the NCP and the SPLM
look at the bigger (north/south) picture when deciding how to engage
with the rebels.


8. (SBU) Senator Kerry asked the AEC Chairman and the SRSG what it
would take to restore humanitarian aid capacity to 100 percent in
Darfur following the GoS' expulsion of 13 INGOs and dissolution of
three national NGOs on March 4 (refs B and C). Qazi noted that SE
Gration's effort to bring four reconstituted NGOs back (Qazi was
briefed on this plan by DSRSG for Humanitarian Affairs Ammerah Haq)
will cover a considerable part of the gap that was created by the
expulsions. Qazi stated that at no stage will the GoS reverse its
decision regarding the expelled NGOs, but guessed that if 10 of the
13 expelled organizations could be brought back to Sudan in one form
or another, 100 percent capacity would be restored. He added that
the international community's primary goal should be to "make sure
that the vulnerable population does not suffer as a result" of the
GoS' expulsions. Senator Kerry said that he would convey a message
to GoS officials that the USG would consistently track the
humanitarian situation in Darfur.

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WAYS THE USG CAN HELP MOVE CPA IMPLEMENTATION FORWARD
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9. (SBU) Plumbly and Qazi told Senator Kerry that without a doubt,
the U.S. has the greatest leverage with both CPA parties to push the
process of CPA implementation (and other things, like Darfur)
forward. Plumbly said that China, because of its investment in
Sudan, comes second, with the EU countries collectively a close
third. Qazi noted that the influence of Arab Gulf States and
African Union countries should not be discounted, particularly since
the ICC indictment. CDA Fernandez noted that different players have
different ties with the parties on different issues. For example,
Ethiopia and Uganda have clout with and support the SPLM, while
Kenya and South Africa play a more balanced game with the CPA
partners.


10. (SBU) Senator Kerry asked the two diplomats what he should push
for with the parties during his visit. SRSG Qazi recommended that
Kerry link all issues to the CPA and note that the future of the CPA
is in jeopardy because of its non-implementation. Furthermore, the
parties should be reminded that they own the CPA process, but there
are other stakeholders willing to help them succeed in its
implementation (namely the international guarantors of the CPA).
Qazi said that it is important that the USG reach out to both CPA
parties "on an equal basis." He recommended that the USG and other
external players deal with the issue of the ICC "quietly and
privately." "Don't jeopardize justice for peace," he advised.
Plumbly added that the USG should allow the NCP to see "the light at
the end of the tunnel (in whatever form that may take)" while
prodding it to move forward on CPA implementation and other issues.
He also remarked that the USG should find a way to encourage the
parties to "come back to the CPA." "You turned a new page" for this
regime, said Plumbly. "You resumed engagement with the regime
almost immediately after the ICC indictment, which is critical."
You also have a new Administration, he added. Both Qazi and Plumbly
urged the Senator to take advantages of this positive new engagement
to move the parties forward on CPA implementation and developing
arrangements for a peaceful pre-and post-2011.


12. (SBU) Comment: Plumbly and Qazi both raised serious and
immediate concerns - that unless CPA implementation becomes a
priority for the parties and the international community, there is a
real and present danger of it failing - and there are many issues
that could trigger this at any time. Given the GoS' perceived
acceptance of the Obama Administration and Special Envoy Gration,
the USG should capitalize on the cautious good graces it finds
itself in to get real movement (not just verbal recommitment) on CPA
milestones from both the NCP and the SPLM in order to help Sudan
from suffering a repeat of the north-south conflict that could this
time be exacerbated by the crisis in Darfur and the nefarious
intentions of some neighboring nations. The creation of a
high-level trilateral dialogue on CPA issues with the parties is a
good first step in the right direction, if the CPA parties will
truly commit to it. End Comment.

FERNANDEZ