A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR THE SPLM NUBA AS ABDEL AZIZ AL-HELOU

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000523

DEPT FOR SE GRATION, S/USSES, AF A A/S CARTER, AF/E
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI ASEC AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: A GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR THE SPLM NUBA AS ABDEL AZIZ AL-HELOU
ASSUMES THE ROLE OF SOUTHERN KORDOFAN DEPUTY GOVERNOR

REFS: A. KHARTOUM 264

B. KHARTOUM 186

C. 08 KHARTOUM 1435

KHARTOUM 00000523 001.3 OF 002



1. (U) On April 14, Nuba mountains native and respected SPLM
national figure Abdel Aziz Al-Helou was sworn in by the President of
the Government of National Unity (GNU) as the Deputy Governor for
Southern Kordofan State (SKS). Abdel Aziz's appointment to this
position comes after the SPLM Nuba expressed continuous, deep
disappointment with former SPLM Deputy Governor Daniel Kodi for
failing to work effectively with the National Congress Party (NCP)
to implement the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Southern
Kordofan state (refs A and C). Kodi was removed as the Chairman of
the SPLM for Southern Kordofan State in a vote of no-confidence by
the SPLM Southern Kordofan State Liberation Council on February 19
(ref A). Following this action, SPLM Chairman Salva Kiir Mayardit
held discussions with Deputy Governor Kodi, Deputy Secretary of the
SPLM for the Southern Sector Dr. Anne Itto, former SKS Governor and
current GNU State Minister for Animal Resources Ismail Jalab, and
Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile CPA Protocol author and Nuba
Mountains native Abdel Aziz Al-Helou on a way forward for SPLM
leadership in Southern Kordofan State. Al-Helou's recent swearing-in
as Deputy Governor of SKS comes as a result of those discussions.


2. (SBU) Deputy Speaker of the Southern Kordofan State Legislature
Sadiq Mansour (SPLM) told POLOFF on April 15 that he is very hopeful
that Al-Helou will deliver much-needed progress on CPA
implementation to SKS. He noted that Al-Helou should focus on
setting straight security arrangements as called for in the CPA, as
well as getting police and civil administration integration on
track. This is a CPA deliverable that is unique to Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile, (ref B). Mansour said that the SKS SPLM
State Liberation Council will hold a session to elect its next SPLM
State Chairman shortly and hoped that Dr. Anne Itto would attend.
He hinted that Al-Helou will be nominated as the next SPLM Chairman
for SKS, and stated that this will provide Al-Helou with the
"political power" he needs at the state-level to accomplish his role
successfully. Mansour said that Al-Helou is accepted by "all of the
people," and that he will encounter very high expectations in his
role as Deputy Governor and, if elected, as SPLM State Chairman. In
Mansour's view, it is the SPLM Nubans' hope that Al-Helou can solve
the CPA, security, and political challenges of Southern Kordofan (no
doubt a mammoth task) and then be released to the SPLM National
*Secretariat* in order to run in early 2010 as the SPLM's candidate
for the President of the Government of National Unity.


3. (SBU) SPLM SKS Secretary Arnu Lodi told POLOFF on April 15 that
the SPLM's mission in SKS was to assure "strong leadership" for the
SPLM Nuba. In his view, this has been accomplished through the
appointment of Al-Helou to Deputy Governor. Lodi said that he had
spoken with Al-Helou on April 14 and told him that the SPLM Nuba is
entering "a new era;" this is the first time that Al-Helou will
return to the Nuba Mountains in a state leadership role since the
signing of the CPA. Lodi praised Al-Helou as the SPLM figure
best-suited to work with the tribes of Southern Kordofan, and said
that he is "widely-respected" in the state. He cautioned that
Al-Helou will immediately face a number of challenges in SKS. "For
four years, we have had no real progress on the CPA," lamented Lodi.
Lodi said that Al-Helou is currently in Juba attending the SPLM
Political Bureau Meeting. According to Lodi, Al-Helou is expected
to take up his seat as Deputy Governor in Kadugli, Southern Kordofan
at the end of April.


4. (SBU) Prior to his recent visit to the Washington, DC with other
SPLM leaders in late March, Al-Helou told POLOFF that Kodi's removal
as SPLM State Chairman came mainly as a result of his failure to
implement the CPA in SKS. "They blamed Kodi instead of the NCP,
when it is the NCP that is the real obstacle for CPA progress," said
Al-Helou. Although POLOFF (and perhaps even Al Helou himself) was
not aware that he would replace Kodi in mid-April, Al-Helou spoke
with measured caution about taking on a leadership role in SKS. He
referred to the Sudan Armed Forces' (SAF) alleged arming of Arab
tribes in Southern Kordofan (in particular the Hawazma,) the unrest
between the Nuba and the Misseriya in the area, and the NCP's
unwillingness to implement the CPA. He made clear there would be
great challenges ahead for any SPLM political leader in the Nuba
Mountains. Al-Helou asked if the US would support him if he were
to take on a leadership role in Southern Kordofan.


5. (SBU) Comment: Abdel Aziz Al-Helou's appointment as Deputy
Governor for Southern Kordofan is a positive, welcomed, and
long-awaited event for the SPLM Nuba. Al-Helou is indeed a
well-respected figure in the state, and represents the SPLM putting
its best foot forward to accomplish its political goals in Southern

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Kordofan. The latter include CPA implementation and the SPLM
winning a majority in state legislative elections so that it can
influence the popular consultation to allow the Nuba to get more out
of the CPA than its current "raw deal," which makes them beholden
to GoS administration.


6. (SBU) Comment continued: In late March, Al-Helou seemed
extremely cautious and almost nervous about assuming any type of
leadership role in Southern Kordofan, regardless of his peoples'
wide calls for him to return to the state. He is rightly skeptical
about whether the NCP will allow any SPLM leader to succeed in the
state before the 2010 elections. Now that Al-Helou will be at the
helm of SPLM leadership in such a critical and volatile region, it
is important that the USG provide him full support in pressing for
CPA implementation in this state, which is located along the 1-1-56
north/south border. It is both poignant and appropriate that as one
of the authors and negotiators of the CPA Protocol for Southern
Kordofan and Blue Nile, Al-Helou will return to his homeland to try
and hold together a fragile peace in the region. At the same time,
he will have to race to implement those things in the CPA that are
crucial to the people of Southern Kordofan prior to the 2011
referendum for southern Sudan. Al-Helou will also be faced with the
challenge of determining the best and most acceptable fate for SPLM
Nuba in that state as the 2011 popular consultation in that state
approaches. It is also important to note that Al-Helou's
appointment as the Deputy Governor of Southern Kordofan comes at a
loss to Darfur, as he was co-chair of the SPLM's Darfur Task Force
(and is half-Darfuri himself). End comment.

FERNANDEZ