PRESIDENT BASHIR RETHINKING ATTENDANCE AT ARAB LEAGUE

UNCLAS KHARTOUM 000408

DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, S/E GRATION, AF/SPG, AF/C
NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO ASEC AU UNSC SU QA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT BASHIR RETHINKING ATTENDANCE AT ARAB LEAGUE
SUMMIT

REF: DOHA 177


1. (SBU) The GoS appears to be setting the stage for President
Bashir to gracefully withdraw his participation at the March 30 Arab
League Summit in Doha. Bashir earlier had stated publically that he
planned to attend. However, pro-government press recently has been
filled with commentary, urging Bashir not to go to Doha amidst
reports that he might be apprehended under the arrest warrant issued
against him by the International Criminal Court, including by his
plane be diverted while enroute. On March 17, the Egyptian DCM told
emboffs that Qatar had failed to provide full assurances that Bashir
would be safe from arrest, and that he was having doubts about
attending.


2. (U) On March 21, the pro-regime Islamic Sudan Scholars Authority
issued a Fatwa requesting the President not to travel to the Arab
League Summit. In the statement, they explained the dangerous
present situation and said that Sudan's enemies plan to create chaos
inside the country. They requested the President to accept the
advice of the nation and not travel, saying that another GOS
official could represent Sudan and that it is not necessary for
Bashir to attend the summit personally. Pro-regime media have joined
the echo chamber, clamoring that the President is too important to
leave the country given the current situation.


3. (SBU) Sudanese businessmen close to the regime recently described
to CDA Fernandez the contradictory and volatile pressures the regime
is under. A proud and moody Bashir wants to show that he is fully in
charge of events and unbowed by the ICC. Important to his personal
image as a brave military man, he deeply wants to travel and
graphically demonstrate his immunity. Because of this personal
volatility, the ruling NCP is having trouble "managing" Sudan's
multiple crises with their usual ruthless efficiency. They described
an NCP inner circle nervous about the future, afraid to correct the
President and perhaps also plotting to "set him up" by actually
encouraging aggressive and irrational behavior by a head of state
now wanted by the International Criminal Court. They also described
the drama of the President's possible travel to Qatar as an entirely
regime-managed stage play.


4. (SBU) Comment: While public concerns that Bashir might be
apprehended and turned over to the ICC either on the way to or at
Doha probably are grossly exaggerated, his presence there could make
him the focus of potentially embarrassing attention. The growing
chorus of pro-government voices, most authoritatively stated by the
Islamic scholars Fatwa, provides the regime with a convenient excuse
to avoid such embarrassment. It is also still another opportunity
for Sudan's increasingly obsequious political class to underscore
their slavish public loyalty to an embattled President Bashir,
something which has now seemed to become a weekly occurrence in
Sudan.

FERNANDEZ