SPLM INSIDER ON SNAP ELECTIONS, CPA IMPLEMENTATION, AND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000400 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SOCI ASEC KDEM UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM INSIDER ON SNAP ELECTIONS, CPA IMPLEMENTATION, AND CENSUS RESULTS REFS: A. KHARTOUM 382 ¶B. KHARTOUM 312 ¶1. (U) This is an action request - see para. 8. ¶2. (SBU) Summary: In a meeting with ConGen Juba on March 19, GOSS Minister for Presidential Affairs Luka Biong Deng indicated that the SPLM would boycott any snap national Presidential elections intended to legitimize GNU President Omar al Bashir following the ICC's issuance of an arrest warrant against him. The NCP, in Deng's opinion, is rallying around Bashir, and it seems unlikely that any efforts within the NCP to oust Bashir would succeed in the near future, contrary to previous rumors. The SPLM is pressing for national elections in July, in hopes that they will be held as early as possible after that. The SPLM intends to reject national census results because it says they over-count the population in the North, rather than under-count in the South, he said. End Summary. SPLM Will Boycott Any Snap Elections - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) In a meeting with ConGen Juba on March 19 Deng, a key advisor to GOSS President Salva Kiir Mayardit, said there is growing concern in the SPLM that, in the face of the ICC's indictment of GNU President Omar al Bashir, his National Congress Party (NCP) will try to hold only a Presidential snap election this year. Deng said such an effort would be aimed at trying to legitimize Bashir's leadership in the eyes of the international community (ref. A). Asked if the SPLM would boycott such an election, Deng answered that the latter would violate the terms of the CPA, and therefore lack legitimacy. He added that the CPA calls for elections on all levels and not just for GNU president. Commenting further on Bashir, Deng said he believes as do others in the SPLM that the NCP is now rallying around Bashir, at least in the short run. He noted that the likelihood of an internal coup to oust Bashir, as had previously been rumored, seems more and more improbable. Election Preparations and Abyei - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Deng went on to say that the SPLM is continuing to press the NCP to hold full elections in July of this year. Asked if he thought elections in July would really be possible, Deng responded, "Not at all." But, he said, the SPLM would continue to press for a July date in order to pressure the NCP to begin serious preparations for holding them later. "If we publicly agree to push the date back now, the NCP will then just continue to drag its feet, and more time will go by with nothing accomplished. The pressure will be off, and they will take advantage of that." He still hopes, he said, that a number of election laws that need to be passed urgently could soon be pushed through the National Assembly, including the National Security law and the Media law. ¶5. (SBU) A major obstacle to elections that deeply troubles Deng is the continued failure to demark the border areas. Little to no progress is being made in this regard, and even more troubling, Bashir is still refusing to release funds to the Abyei Administration as called for months ago in the Abyei Road Map Agreement (ref. B). This, he said, only demonstrates once again that the NCP lacks any commitment to follow through on promises concerning the border. Deng further requested U.S. assistance with funds to help send its delegation to The Hague for the next round of the Abyei Arbitration Court hearings. Census Count Wrong On the North, Not On the South - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) On the subject of the census, in a surprising admission, Deng said that the count indicated a Southern population total of about 8.5 million people, or about 21 percent of Sudan's total population. However, Deng said that the GOSS would not accept the census results, not on the basis that the Southern count was too low, but rather due to anomalies in the Northern count. He said such anomalies had inflated Northern numbers. As a result, the North was now refusing to provide access to raw census data as required under the census protocol agreement. He said that as a consequence the SPLM would demand that the current CPA allocation of seats in the National Assembly be maintained for the elections. Comment - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Deng's apparent acceptance of the 8.5 million count for the South came as a surprise, given past Southern insistence that their population was closer to at least 12 million. Given that the North refuses to share the raw data for its part of the count, Deng is most likely right that the NCP are in violation of the Census KHARTOUM 00000400 002 OF 002 protocol and the SPLM strategy of rejecting the census results on the basis of this failure is the smarter approach to contesting the census outcome, given the likelihood that the 8.5 million figure for the South is probably about right. End comment Action Requested - - - - - - - - - ¶8. (SBU) Post requests guidance on how to respond to the GoSS request for financial support for its delegation to the next round of Abyei-boundary arbitration hearings in The Hague. The Embassy recommends this if funds are somehow available. FERNANDEZ