SPLM LEADERS TRY TO PROTECT AID TO THREE AREAS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000386 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM LEADERS TRY TO PROTECT AID TO THREE AREAS REFS: A. Khartoum 365 ¶B. Khartoum 332 ¶C. Khartoum 306 ¶1. Summary. Vice President of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) Riek Machar, and SPLM representatives from Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states and the Abyei Administration traveled to Khartoum on March 15 to participate in a meeting with Government of National Unity (GNU) Vice President Ali Osman Taha and representatives from the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs (including the Humanitarian Aid Commission (HAC)) regarding the INGO expulsions from the Three Areas. Machar and his team were prepared to lay out the implications of the expulsions on the Three Areas and lobby for a reversal of the decision in a meeting on March 16. Emboffs recommended to Machar and the other SPLM representatives that they also press the National Congress Party (NCP) to modify the legal and bureaucratic environment in the Three Areas in which INGOs operate so as to ease their ability to register, obtain travel and work permits, and carry out their programs. After initial SPLM-GoS meetings, SPLM officials indicated that the NCP appears divided on the issue and a "face-saving" solution is required. They reported that the NCP is floating an idea that would allow some expelled NGOs to return to Sudan by re-registering under a new name. Their assets would allegedly be returned and their staff would be allowed to re-enter. SPLM officials underscored that this is just an initial idea and that the process of responding to the expulsion crisis must evolve. End Summary. US OFFICALS MEET WITH THREE AREAS LEADERS AND MACHAR - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On the evening of March 15, emboffs (USAIDoffs and poloff) met with Southern Kordofan representatives Ramadan Shameyla and Abdalla Tia (both Nuban parliamentarians) and discussed with them the potential impact of the INGO expulsions on Southern Kordofan, and in particular, the formerly SPLA/M-controlled areas (refs A and B). Both Shameyla and Tia, who were appointed as Southern Kordofan delegates for the committee working to resolve the issue, indicated that they were aware of the serious implications of the expulsions. They expressed concern over the loss of support and indicated that it would lead to further instability in the state if the situation was not rectified. In addition expressing hope that a solution to the expulsions will be found, they agreed with the need to improve the legal and bureaucratic environment for INGOs to work in the Three Areas, including the provisions of the CPA that would allow the state governments in the transitional areas to set up a legal framework for establishing direct relationships between these states/area and implementing partners. ¶3. (SBU) Emboffs off also met with Abyei Administration Secretary for Agriculture Choul Arop on the evening of March 15. Choul explained that Abyei Administrator Arop Majak had asked him to attend the meeting on his behalf. Choul said that Majak is still adamant about remaining in Abyei (not traveling to Khartoum) until his Administration receives funding from the Government of Sudan (GoS). While Choul was not up to speed on the reason for the meeting, he was aware of the implications that the INGO expulsions would have on development support to Abyei. ¶4. (SBU) Emboffs also met with GoSS Vice President Riek Machar on March 15 to discuss the expulsions and his upcoming meeting with Taha and the HAC. VP Machar was intimately familiar with the implications that the expulsions will have on the Three Areas. VP Machar asked USG officials what was needed for effective assistance to continue. Emboffs discussed the need for the legal and bureaucratic environment to be modified, perhaps through joint North/South jurisdiction over permission and registration to work and travel to the Three Areas. Machar indicated that he, on behalf of the SPLM and the GoSS, would push for a reversal of the decision to expel the NGOs across northern Sudan, including Darfur. He noted and understood the importance of easing INGO access to the Three Areas in order to conduct donor programs and said that he would discuss this in his meeting with Taha. ¶5. (SBU) Emboffs met with Blue Nile State Governor Malik Agar on the morning of March 16 - the same day in which the Taha-Riek-Three Areas reps meeting was initially scheduled - in order to gather his views on the way forward in the Three Areas (ref A). Governor Agar was keenly aware of the implications that the INGO expulsions would have on the Three Areas, and Blue Nile State in particular. He listened to emboffs explain the need for the decision not only to be reversed, but for the legal environment in which the groups work to be improved. He explained to them that the situation must be dealt with in a step-by-step manner, and the first step was to convince the NCP to reverse the expulsion decision. He thought a face-saving compromise might be possible, for example expel certain individual KHARTOUM 00000386 002 OF 002 but not entire organizations. He suggested that if that was achieved, then he and others could lobby for the improvement of the implementing environment for INGOS. LIKELY NCP SHENNANIGANS HOLD OFF VP-THREE AREAS MEETING - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) While the Taha-Machar meeting to discuss a conciliatory response to the expulsions in the Three Areas was originally scheduled to take place on the morning of March 16, it was pushed back to March 17 by the NCP. Professor Ali Idriss, Minister of Health for Blue Nile State (who was to be a part of the meeting) told USAIDoff on March 17 that Governor Malik, Abyei Minister Choul and other Three Areas representatives sat outside the Machar-Taha meeting on the morning of March 17th waiting to be called in to discuss the INGO expulsions. Machar informed them after his meeting that Taha was unwilling to discuss the issue with the full group until the Three Areas delegation met with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs (including the HAC). ¶7. (SBU) On March 18, emboffs were called into a debriefing meeting with the SPLM delegation, headed by GoSS VP Machar. The delegation had just met with HAC Director Hassabo Abderahman and State Minister for Humanitarian Affairs Ahmed Haroun (an ICC indictee). Machar explained that there are some members of the NCP who would like to take action to resolve the issue of the expelled INGOs, but noted that as a party, NCP officials are divided. He underscored that an acceptable solution will have to be a face-saving one. Machar said that one of the NCP's tentative proposals is to re-register expelled NGOs under different names, return their assets and allow their staff to return (except for some senior management, who may be relocated to Juba). Governor Malik indicated that while this might not be the final solution, its consideration is part of a process that needs to take place in order to lead to a practical solution. He requested that the expelled NGOs provide feedback on this idea to the SPLM without making the idea public. Jason Matus, Strategic Advisor to the Three Areas Donors Steering Group, is now in the process of contacting the G13 to get feedback on the idea. ¶8. (SBU) Governor Malik added that HAC officials requested that an assessment of the situation be carried out in the transitional areas (not unlike the one that will soon be completed in Darfur),to which Malik reportedly responded bluntly that practical action is needed, not further assessments. According to Matus, in a subsequent meeting between HAC officials and UNMIS D/SRSG Ameera Haq, HAC requested UN support for an assessment to the Three Areas. HAC said that it would assess the humanitarian situation and that the Ministry of International Cooperation would survey development programs. The assessment would led by HAC official Bashir Korsey. Matus said that the D/SRSG responded that this request must be a joint SPLM/NCP request. Comment - - - - ¶9. (SBU) It is not unusual for SPLM Three Areas officials (and other SPLM officials) to get the run-around from the NCP when coming to Khartoum to resolve their issues, but the joint NCP-SPLM meetings may provide some small glimmer of hope that there could be a quiet compromise to the INGO expulsions from the Three Areas. On the other hand, we recognize that the NCP is expert at stringing the SPLM along with vague promises but not actually delivering anything (other than oil revenue transfers, which is a redline for the SPLM/GOSS). We also note that VP Taha postponed the meeting with GOSS VP Machar twice. The SPLM appears to be pushing forcefully on this issue, as it should since the populations in two of the Three Areas (Blue Nile and the Nuba Nountains) already feel abandoned by the SPLM. Over time is it possible that the two CPA partners might find an acceptable solution in order to ensure continued assistance in the Three Areas, while "saving face" for NCP hardliners, who publicly continue to threaten more INGO expulsions and insist that no reversal decision is possible. If assistance to the Three Areas is not protected, frustration among the populations in these areas will surely escalate and the likelihood of conflict rises, because in some locations the affected populations do not receive services from anyone else other than the INGOs that have been expelled. End Comment. FERNANDEZ