ICC ARREST WARRANT FOR BASHIR IS A GAME-CHANGER FOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000382 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL - RSPRING NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: ICC ARREST WARRANT FOR BASHIR IS A GAME-CHANGER FOR SUDANESE ELECTIONS REF: A) Khartoum 365 B) Khartoum 357 C) Khartoum 234 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The ICC's issuance of an arrest warrant for Government of National Unity (GNU) President Al-Bashir will certainly have a bearing on the process of democratic transformation in Sudan, and the national elections in particular. As a result, the USG needs to be prepared politically and programmatically to deal with previously unforeseen challenges that may arise. These challenges could include the conduct of a rushed, rigged and early presidential election in which the ICC-indicted Omar Al-Bashir is the only candidate and/or an electoral process in which UN and donor support is severely limited (either by GoS obstruction or by the choice of donors not to support a flawed election in which an ICC indictee is the primary candidate.) In the week following the ICC's announcement of the warrant, the National Congress Party (NCP) has mobilized its supporters and the Sudanese public in a number of clever ways (ref A). This includes its use of public messaging to prepare Sudan's citizens for an early or "on-time" (per the CPA, which is by July 9, 2009) GNU presidential election. Top Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement (SPLM) and NCP officials have admitted that a GNU presidential election could indeed take place by or before July 2009. End Summary. THE PUSH FOR EARLY PRESIDENTIAL (GNU) ELECTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) Sudanese media reported on 16 March that a federation of 26 small parties petitioned the National Electoral Commission (NEC) to conduct presidential elections (for the president of the GNU only) soon, ahead of Government of Southern Sudan, national legislative and state elections. According to the media reports, the parties are calling for early presidential elections in which Bashir is the sole candidate in orer to "consolidate unity" among the Sudanese in support of Bashir. Deputy Secretary of the SPLM for the Northern Sector Yasir Arman told poloff on March 16 that these are small "NCP-bought" parties charged with putting forward the NCP's agenda. NEC member and Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Sciences at Garden City College Professor Mukhtar Assam confirmed to poloff on March 17 the NEC's receipt of the petition and admitted that he had "never heard" of any of the parties which submitted it. Assam opined that they are some of the 139 parties that exist in Sudan, but said they are "unaffiliated" with any major party. He added that the parties did not put forward a suggested date for a GNU presidential election, but only asked that the Commission consider holding it soon. Assam said that the NEC has not yet discussed the petition. ¶3. (SBU) According to Yasir Arman, the ICC announcement of an arrest warrant for GNU President Al-Bashir will certainly affect the elections, and in particular their date. Additionally, he said, there are a "million questions now" about how to conduct elections in the current environment. For example: can Bashir run? Will international observers be allowed to participate in electoral observation? Will elections be conducted in Darfur? He admitted that the NCP and the SPLM have not yet discussed any of these questions and added that right now, "no one knows the end game." The SPLM Deputy Secretary General told poloff that he is worried that the NCP might try to pressure the National Electoral Commission (NEC) into declaring a quick election. Poloff asked Arman what the SPLM would do in the event of early or "on-time" (per the CPA - July 2009) elections. While not being entirely forthcoming about the SPLM's game plan, he did say that "this will be a difficult situation to resolve" and "it needs a lot of discussion," leaving open the possibility that the SPLM would not put up a fight if rushed and flawed elections (and in particular a GNU presidential election) occur in the very near term. WHERE IS THE SPLM ON ELECTIONS? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) According to Arman, the 45-person SPLM elections strategy committee held its first meeting in Juba on 16 March (ref B). Arman is one of the members of the committee, but was unable to make it to the meeting. He told poloff that the SPLM will put up a candidate for the national presidency, but that this person has not yet been selected by the party. [Note: Arman's absence at the elections strategy meeting is an indication of what National Assembly Deputy Speaker Atem Garang told poloff on 13 March - that the body will not be very effective because its members are too busy to focus solely on elections. End Note. (ref B)]. ¶5. (SBU) Poloff asked Arman, a National Assembly member, if the upcoming parliamentary session (due to begin on 6 April) would be used to ratify reformed legislation on the media/press and security KHARTOUM 00000382 002 OF 003 acts (ref B). [Comment: Reformed legislation in these areas should, in theory, positively enhance the electoral environment. End Comment]. Arman said that the NCP is "buying time" to stall the process of legislative reform by enveloping the SPLM in painstakingly detailed negotiations on the laws. He was not confident that the legal environment for elections would improve much by the time elections take place. WHERE IS THE NCP ON ELECTIONS? - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) NCP parliamentarian and party financier Ibrahim Ghandour told poloff on 16 March that while both the NCP and the SPLM call publicly for full elections "on time" (per the CPA),he believes they will not take place until late 2009. Ghandour echoed a sentiment that we've heard before - that neither of the partners want to suggest that elections be delayed publicly for fear of appearing to obstruct implementation of the CPA (ref C). He affirmed that the parties will leave it up to the NEC to determine an elections date, but said that the NCP was "open to discuss" the date with the NEC. ¶7. (SBU) Ghandour agreed with poloff's assessment that an earlier presidential election would be strategic and favorable for the NCP (and Bashir himself) now that Bashir is an ICC-indicted head of state and needs to prove his legitimacy. "If there is a semi-national consensus to hold a GNU presidential election early or on time, then I think it would be okay" to do this, he said. Ghandour explained that to conduct a presidential election, the NEC would need to conduct voter registration. He estimated that if voter registration began soon, a presidential election could take place by July 2009. In the event GNU presidential elections are held separately and in advance of national legislative, state and GoSS elections, Ghandour said that "no one will run against Bashir; not even the SPLM." Being the sole presidential candidate would provide him with a "full mandate" and be a "signal" that people have rallied behind him, said the NCP official. ¶8. (SBU) Ghandour told poloff that in contrast to the SPLM, the NCP has a much smaller, tighter elections strategy committee. Ghandour himself is a member of the high-powered 13-person committee, as are NCP notables such as presidential advisor Ghazi Salah Eddin, NCP Political Chief Mandour Al Mahdi, GNU Vice President Ali Osman Taha, Presidential Advisor Mustafa Osman Ismail, and Presidential Advisor Nafie Ali Nafie. According to Ghandour, the committee has been meeting regularly and started meeting over a year ago when the electoral bill was being discussed. He added that the NCP has already determined that Bashir will run for the post of GNU President. NCP candidates for governorships and national assembly seats will be determined locally, said Ghandour. AN ACADEMIC (AND NCP) PERSPECTIVE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Former Political Parties Registrar and current professor of political science and constitutional law at the University of Khartoum Mohamed Ahmed Salim told poloff on March 16 that NCP leaders have "repeated relentlessly" that full elections will take place on time (per the CPA) as a purely "political maneuver" to avoid being accused of supporting an electoral delay. Salim said that it is "practically impossible" to hold full-scale elections by July 9 due tothe limited time for preparation, the rainy season, the lack of census results, and the lack of a defined North-South border (this is consistent with the UN's assessment on the feasibility of holding elections by July 2009.) At the same time, he told poloff that the NCP "needs a presidential election to happen soon" and remarked that compared to national legislative and state elections, it would be much easier to carry out. Salim pointed out that in the event of a GNU presidential election, the country is one big constituency, thus census results and a clearly defined border are not necessary ahead of a vote. Furthermore, the vote will only involve the use of one ballot. Voter registration, however, would need to take place. ¶10. (SBU) Salim described early presidential elections as a "two-edged sword" for the NCP (and Bashir). Bashir will need to be elected with a very high percentage of votes, "otherwise it will backfire," said Salim. It is best for the NCP and Bashir if other parties do not contest the GNU Presidency. The main message that the NCP wants to send is that Sudan has a very popular president with a 97 or 98 percent election rating, said Salim. If no other parties contest the GNU Presidency and Bashir is the sole candidate, Sudanese law permits him to be declared the winner without a vote, explained Salim. This will raise his stature from the head of a political party to a national consensus figure, he said. He noted KHARTOUM 00000382 003 OF 003 that the NCP will have to study the feasibility of being able to carry out such an act "very carefully." Salim said that while the parties have left it to the NEC to establish an electoral date, they will certainly "inflict" pressure on the Commission to choose a date that suits their interests. DONOR AND UN SUPPORT FOR ELECTIONS - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (SBU) A UNDP official told poloff on 17 March that its entire election program, which consists of technical support to civic education, training for domestic observation, training and monitoring for the media, and operational support to the NEC, could be scrapped if international donors choose not to support an election in which Bashir participates. The British aid agency, DFID, one of the largest donors to the UNDP's basket fund for elections, is mulling over whether it will provide support to an electoral process in which an ICC-indicted individual is a presidential candidate. Furthermore, the UN has established its own red lines for stopping electoral support. One of these red lines is a Sudanese/NEC decision for elections before or by July 2009. The UNDP rep told poloff that the decision to halt their programs ultimately rests with the UNSC (the UN has a Security Council mandate to support the Sudanese elections.) (Note: More information on donor posturing will be available after the 19 March Electoral Assistance Group meeting and will be reported septel. End Note.) ¶12. (SBU) Ongoing USAID support to national civil society groups for civic and voter education in the North was cut off in a day by the GoS expulsion of USAID/OTI implementing partner PADCO-AECOM. Without this support, which civil society groups have repeatedly said is the most timely, flexible, and reliable assistance they receive, activists in Khartoum are now left casting about for other options to fill the gap, in an even more restricted political arena. COMMENT - - - ¶13. (SBU) Rumors about an early or "on time" (by July 2009) GNU presidential election abound in the media and behind closed doors. This appears to be a tactic that the NCP is using to "rally its troops" in support of Bashir and against the ICC and the West. Post will continue to monitor the situation closely, particularly with regard to the independent functioning of the NEC and the position of the SPLM on any type of early GNU presidential election. While it seems as though full Sudanese elections will not take place until late 2009 or early 2010, it is likely that a snap GNU presidential election could be arranged quickly so as to serve the narrow interest of the NCP. Whether donors or the UN will support such a process has yet to be determined, and the U.S. must weigh these questions in the near term. It is also possible that the Sudanese government will not allow western agencies to participate in the Sudanese electoral process in order to shield it entirely from external scrutiny. End Comment. FERNANDEZ