BASHIR CONTINUES TIRADE AGAINST THE WEST AND PROMISES TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000365 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: BASHIR CONTINUES TIRADE AGAINST THE WEST AND PROMISES TO EXPEL ALL INTERNATIONAL AID ORGANIZATIONS ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a fiery speech March 16, President Bashir announced that all international aid organizations would be forced to leave Sudan within a year. For now, moderate NCP officials appear to be backing the President, and we have heard a surprising number of moderate NCP official say that the expulsions are "long overdue." Vice President Taha told senior SPLM officials that the expulsion of the NGOs represents a strategy to "Sudanize" aid operations in Darfur. Taha also said that the government will compensate the Three Areas for losses due to the departure of the NGOs, but will not allow the NGOs to work there either. One hard-line opposition politician expressed hope that the U.S. will intercept President Bashir's plane when he travels to Doha, Qatar at the end of the month for the Arab League Summit. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Although Khartoum itself remains quiet and business continues as usual, President Bashir continued his tirade against the international community at a large military parade staged at "Green Square" March 16 near Khartoum's international airport. In front of several thousand military, police, and intelligence forces that pledged their allegiance to him, Bashir vowed to expel all "foreign aid agencies" (international NGOs) within a year. Bashir challenged the international community to issue more resolutions "from the ICC, the Security Council, the human rights council, or any other organization in the world that pleases them. I vow to God that we will make you swallow it in the end." Bashir also repeated earlier claims that Sudanese NGOs can "easily" fill the gap left by the western NGOs, claiming that they use 99.9 percent of their funds for themselves and therefore the gap would not be difficult to bridge. (Note: The MOD issued an invitation to this event to foreign defense attaches on March 15 without explaining its purpose. The US DATT declined the invitation. No other NATO attaches attended. End note.) ¶3. (SBU) Although top-tier NCP officials have been avoiding meetings (and phone calls from capitals) with the P-3, poloff was able to meet with two mid-level NCP officials on March 16. Mohammed Salem of the National Electoral Commission and Ibrahim Ghandour of the National Labor Union, both moderate NCP officials, said that President Bashir currently has the full backing of the party. Salem said that many in the NCP viewed the expulsions as the "right thing to do" and stated further that "the decision should have been taken sooner." Salem said that the move against the INGOs has popular support within the party because it proves the President can fight back against the international community and is not powerless. Apparently unaware of the President's statements that all international NGOs would be forced to leave within a year, Ghandour said that for now the expulsions will stop. Ghandour, who is in charge of mass mobilization (organizing demonstrations) for the party, added that "soon things will calm down and go back to normal." Ghandour pointed out that it's normal for the people and the party to rally behind the President during a crisis. He predicted that President Bashir will "definitely" be the NCP party's candidate for President during planned elections later this year. ¶4. (SBU) During meetings with emboffs on March 16, senior SPLM officials described Bashir as fully in charge and as escalating the confrontation with the international community. Blue Nile Governor Malik Agar said that as a military man and former general, he admired the way that President Bashir is currently "commanding his troops." "They are all falling into line, no one is questioning him," noted Agar. Agar was optimistic that a compromise might be reached with the NCP over access by the expelled NGOs to Blue Nile state. Agar and Government of Southern Sudan Vice President Riek Machar are scheduled to meet (NCP) Vice President Ali Osman Taha on the evening of March 16 to discuss the impact of the expulsions on the Three Areas. (Note: USAID provided information on the impact of the expulsions on programs in the Three Areas to Agar. End note.) However, SPLM Deputy Secretary General Yasir Arman was not as sanguine that the expulsions would be reversed even in the Three Areas. He said that VP Taha had told him the NCP might "compensate" the Three Areas for the program losses, but would not allow the NGOs back in. Taha also told Arman that the GOS wants to "Sudanize" the assistance process in Darfur. ¶5. (SBU) Opposition leaders claim that the NCP is divided over the ICC issue, as well as the expulsion of the NGOs. Popular Congress Party leader Hassan al Turabi's son Siddiq told polchief March 15 that most in the NCP are saying very little publicly "because they do not agree with what President Bashir is doing." Turabi expects "something" is in the works, referencing earlier rumors that a senior clique within the NCP is working on plans to oust President Bashir in an organized fashion. (Note: Turabi knows well how effective the NCP can be in expelling key leaders, as was the case with his own father in 1999, when he was expelled from both the KHARTOUM 00000365 002 OF 002 party and his position as Speaker of Parliament. End note.) Turabi reported that after briefly withdrawing security from his father's house over the weekend following the senior Turabi's release from prison last week, the government has again provided security after the PCP's discovery of an alleged assassination plot against his father. Turabi claimed that Islamist Salafist elements planned to shoot his father after he went to a planned speaking event at a mosque late last week. The younger Turabi expressed hope that the U.S. or another country will intercept President Bashir's plane when he travels to Doha, Qatar on March 30 for the Arab League summit. "If the U.S. and other countries applaud the ICC indictment of Bashir, but then do nothing to arrest him, what message does that send to human rights advocates all over the world?" ¶6. (SBU) Comment: Given a succession of aggressive speeches against the West and its touting of the expulsion of the INGOs, the regime is increasingly unlikely to allow these organizations to stay. Despite early reports that the party was divided over the expulsions, it now appears that the party faithful are fully backing President Bashir on the decision - or at least they are telling us that to protect themselves. This will have a dramatic impact on USG humanitarian and development assistance in Sudan, not only in Darfur but also in the Three Areas, Khartoum, and the East. Assuming President Bashir sticks to his guns on this issue (and we have no reason to believe he will not,) the U.S. and the rest of the donors will soon have to decide on acceptable modalities for delivery of assistance in northern Sudan. The number of local organizations with the requisite capacity and neutrality to deliver assistance in sensitive parts of Darfur and the Three Areas is minimal. For now, our operational relationship with the GOS remains unaffected; the GOS continues to provide outstanding security support to the Embassy and our working level interactions with the MFA continue as normal. End comment. FERNANDEZ