41ST AEC PLENARY DISCUSSES MALAKAL INCIDENT, ELECTION

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000329 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID KDEM KPKO UNSC SU SUBJECT: 41ST AEC PLENARY DISCUSSES MALAKAL INCIDENT, ELECTION PREPARATIONS REFS: A. KHARTOUM 278 ¶B. KHARTOUM 217 ¶C. KHARTOUM 182 ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: At its 41st Plenary meeting on March 2, the Assessment and Evaluation Committee's (AEC) discussion of the February 24-26 fighting in Malakal that killed 57 and wounded 68 focused primarily on the continuing inadequacies of the Joint Integrated Units. The Parties reported some progress on CPA-related legislation, but differences remain on border demarcation and the release of census results. END SUMMARY. Chairman's Introduction - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (U) AEC Chairman Derek Plumbly noted that work on CPA implementation had been overshadowed by the forthcoming International Criminal Court decision regarding President Al Bashir. As the highpoint of the past month, he cited the Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration (DDR) roundtable held in Juba on February 16, at which donors pledged sufficient funds for UNMIS and UNDP to move forward with their DDR program in the Three Areas. The outbreak of fighting in Malakal (ref. A),the most serious since the May conflict in Abyei, was the low point, he said. The Chairman reported that AEC staff is following up on its offer to assist with workshops the National Election Commission. He also noted the joint efforts of the Three Areas and the Wealth Sharing Working Group Coordinators (the Netherlands and the U.S.) to resolve the funding problems of the Abyei Interim Administration (ref. B). Malakal Incident - UNMIS Briefing - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) UNMIS Polchief Muin Shreim provided a chronological summary of the Malakal events. From these, UNMIS drew five observations: the quick response by northern and southern political leadership had contained and stopped the fighting from spreading and had demonstrated their commitment, the CMJC response had been extremely timely, the Malakal incident, along with the May incident in Abyei, highlight the continuing weaknesses of the Joint Integrated Units (JIUs),finally that Major General Tanginiya should not been allowed to return to Malakal without earlier notification to and time for preparation by local authorities. Responding to a question from the Chairman, Shreim reported a total of 57 dead (15 SPLA, 16 SAF, 26 civilians) and 68 wounded (14 SPLA, 33 SAF, 21 civilians). JIUs: Neither Joint, Nor Integrated - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Minister of State for the Presidency Idriss Abdelgadir said that the NCP would await the report of the CJMC, which he noted is the responsible agency under the CPA. Speaking for the SPLM, Cabinet Affairs Minister Kosti Manibe stated that the weaknesses exhibited by the Malakal JIU had been known for some time. While the parties had been able to contain the fighting this time, it now is time to examine the underlying problems. ¶5. (SBU) Dutch Ambassador Braakhuis (Three Areas Working Group Coordinator) emphasized the lack of integration, joint training, and common doctrine between the SAF and SPLM elements in the JIUs. DCM Asquino said that the United States is deeply concerned about the incident and noted that MG Tanginiya's reintroduction to Malakal was a reckless provocation that should be investigated. He noted U.S. concern about the role of the petroleum police in the Malakal events and emphasized that there is a need for greater transparency and confidence building along the entire north-south border. Finally, he urged the parties to continue to work on pending legislation including media/press acts, the security act and the referendum law, which need to be passed prior to the elections. He added that once the pending legislation is tabled for action, the National Assembly should reconvene. UK Ambassador Marsden agreed that the Malakal incident highlighted the importance of fixing the JIUs, as well as the need for greater transparency and consultation between the parties. African Union Ambassador Kane commented that the JIUs are "the worst example we have" for a future Sudanese military. He asked whether anyone has tried to engage Sudan's leadership to prevent future such incidents. The Security Working Group Coordinator, Norwegian Ambassador Sevje, said the WG would add a discussion of Malakal to the agenda of its next meeting, on March ¶16. ¶7. (SBU) Responding to Ambassador Kane, Minister Idriss said that the Presidency had immediately responded by dispatching the joint NCP-SPLM team of Ahmed Haroun and Riek Machar to Malakal to contain the situation. He repeated his call for a swift investigation by responsible agencies. UNMIS Polchief Shreim commented that, unless KHARTOUM 00000329 002 OF 003 the parties are serious, it is hard to engage now. Kosti Manibe said that the SPLM agrees with the NCP that there must be an examination of how events unfolded on a day-to-day basis, but it also must have a broader mandate to look at the cause of the fighting. He stated that Tanginiya is not an ordinary citizen, but went to Malakal as the senior member of an organized force, even if his reasons for going there were personal. The GoSS had issued an arrest warrant for Tanginiya for his role in the 2006 violence and he should never have been permitted to return. Minister Idriss heatedly denied that there was an arrest warrant for Tanginya, asserted that this was not a proper subject for the AEC, and threatened to leave the meeting if it was not dropped. Acknowledging the sensitivity of the issue, the Chairman proposed that the discussion move on. ¶8. (SBU) Chairman Plumbly summed up the discussion, saying that speakers had praised the quick response to the crisis of Haroun, Machar, and UNMIS; emphasized the importance of an investigation; and that Malakal remains an extremely tense place and there remains a need to deescalate the situation. There is a need for the both the Security WG and UNMIS to focus on the state of the JIUs. Each JIU has its own unique problems, he noted. The Security WG might want to look at JIUs in those locations where they are especially important, he said. He said that the issue had also been raised of the National Assembly's reconvening as soon as election-related legislation was ready. Election Related Issues - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶9. (SBU) Italian Ambassador Catoni (Power Sharing Working Group Coordinator) reported that the February 17 WG meeting discussed the census, border demarcation, and pending CPA-related legislation. There is a consensus that the census enumeration was technically sound and parties were encouraged to continue to work towards completion. There still are some contentious areas on border demarcation. Progress has been made on drafting and submitting pending legislation to the National Assembly, notably on the Media and Press Law. Other draft laws have been referred up for a political decision. He also reported that the NEC has notified the Italian Embassy of its readiness to accept foreign election observers. ¶10. (SBU) SPLM representative Khalid Mohammed provided a further update on the status of legislation, confirming that the Media and Press Law is ready for submission to the National Assembly. The draft National Security Law, the South Sudan Referendum Law, the Abyei Referendum Law, and laws on the Popular Consultations in Southern Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states have all been elevated from the joint legal committee to the political committee for resolution. Chairman Plumbly described the legislation as "a work in progress." ¶11. (SBU) The European Commission and UNMIS both confirmed that they also had received and welcomed the NEC request for international observers. Both will need to perform an assessment before making specific commitments. DCM Asquino encouraged the parties to complete work on the census. The Netherlands and the EC both commented that this will be a very difficult year in which to raise donor-funds to support elections, therefore it is urgent that a decision on the date of elections be made as soon as possible. ¶13. (SBU) Minister Idriss stated that the NCP believes that the Presidency should first establish an Abyei referendum commission to make recommendations, before a decision can be made on what measures are needed. The Popular Consultations are the responsibility of the states, he contended, and must be preceded by the establishment of State Assemblies, then the Assemblies should establish procedures for the Popular Consultations. State Minister Angelina Teny responded that the SPLM is concerned that there could be problems if arrangements for the Popular Consultations are left solely to the state assemblies and it believes that the two CPA parties need to establish guidelines first. ¶14. (SBU) Chairman Plumbly concluded the discussion, saying that there clearly is "keen international interest" on elections and related issues. He noted that several pending laws have been referred upward for a political decision. He emphasized that the completion of border demarcation remains very pressing and he urged the Presidency to look at the remaining unresolved areas of dispute. Working Group Updates - - - - - - - - - - - KHARTOUM 00000329 003 OF 003 ¶15. (SBU) Ambassador Catoni said the Power Sharing WG's March meeting would focus on border demarcation and would invite the Technical Border Committee Chairman. Chairman Plumbly urged the parties to help facilitate this. Three Areas WG Coordinator Braakhuis reported on the informal meeting to try to resolve the Abyei funding crisis (ref. B). From the WG's January meeting, he highlighted the need to establish a radio station in Abyei to keep the population better informed and dispel unfounded rumors, the need to release communications equipment to the JIU, and the urgent need for a Ngok Dinka-Misseriya reconciliation conference to facilitate the annual cattle migration. He concluded that funding for the Abyei Administration remains unresolved and said that this is a critical concern. Any Other Business - - - - - - - - - - ¶16. (U) The Chairman noted that the text of the draft-AEC annual report had been approved and that the deadline for comments on the budget tables was March 5. After that the report would be officially submitted to the NCP and SPLM. He reminded all that there would be a briefing March 8 on the work of the Commission on Rights on Non-Muslims in Khartoum. The next Plenary meeting is scheduled for April 7. Comment - - - - ¶17. (SBU) The Plenary highlighted that four years after they were established by the CPA, the continuing inadequacy of the JIUs is a source of instability, largely because of a lack of support by Khartoum. Rather than providing security, both the Abyei and Malakal violence started with clashes between SAF and SPLA elements of the local JIUs. Despite a rapidly dwindling timeframe, little progress appears to have been made on election related issues (pending legislation, census, border demarcation),and none at all on Abyei, since the last Plenary (ref. C). With the GoS's expulsion of 13 international NGOs from Sudan, the provision of humanitarian assistance in the Three Areas will only be further constrained, with a resulting increase in frustration and potential for violence. FERNANDEZ.