TURABI: FREE AT LAST - BUT WHY, AND WHAT'S GOING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000327 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU NSC FOR CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV PPKO SOCI AU SU SUBJECT: TURABI: FREE AT LAST - BUT WHY, AND WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE NCP? Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, reasons 1.4(b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 10, CDA Fernandez met with Popular Congress Party leader Dr. Hassan al-Turabi at his house in Khartoum. Turabi, who was released from Port Sudan prison on March 9, appeared in good health and talked about his treatment in prison, the strange nature of his release, and the most recent political crisis brought on by the National Congress Party's actions over the past week. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Turabi and his entourage were in high spirits from the PCP leader's March 9 release from confinement in Port Sudan. Though he appeared jubilant and in quite good health, Turabi claimed his treatment was "extremely bad" in prison, where he was isolated from the general population and not given contact with the outside world save a short weekly visit from his family. He said he developed a "serious cold" and "very high blood pressure" from his time in jail. ¶3. (C) When asked why he had been released on March 9, Turabi replied "I don't know!" He hypothesized that "if the NCP is going to talk to (Justice and Equality Movement leader) Khalil Ibrahim anyway," whom the regime has often accused him of supporting, "maybe they figured they should just talk to the source." He also suggested it may have been a favor for the Qataris' support for Darfur peace talks. Turabi noted that his release appeared very hastily organized - instead of the usual calculated, press-making announcement he had expected might happen, he instead was loaded onto a plane in Port Sudan at 1AM (at which point he assumed he was being transferred back to Kober Prison in Khartoum) and was only told of his release when he was several blocks from his house in Khartoum. He thanked the U.S. embassy for its support throughout his incarceration, noting with our press release in hand that the U.S. government was "the only one to do so." ¶4. (C) Noting the recent reaction by the Sudanese government after the issuance of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, Turabi said that he "hadn't realized how extreme that President Bashir had become" over the past couple of months. "This is not the time to take on the whole lot, this is not a true politician's decision," he said. "Bashir is acting like a boy with a stick - where is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs? Where have all the diplomats gone?" ¶5. (C) Pointing to both the circumstances surrounding his release and the decision to expel NGOs, Turabi claimed that the NCP is "confused and behaving wildly." He continued, saying "this erratic behavior is something you might expect from an individual or two, but not an institution. They (the NCP) are looking weak and moody, not strong." Turabi said that he had talked to members of Bashir's family and advised them that the President "should remain above the fray" instead of "dancing on a stage for CNN to see" but even those closest to him cannot rein him in now. ¶6. (C) Asked about any conditions for his release, Turabi claimed "no one ever approached us," and also noted that seven other members of the Popular Congress Party remain in jail. Turabi ridiculed the idea that Bashir is experiencing new-found popularity, noting that he "saw the same thing happen with (former dictator) Nimeri - everyone whipped up a frenzy, and then he fell." Warning of a possible coup in the coming weeks, he added that "the South is worried, and the people of Darfur will not negotiate with a fugitive." He concluded the meeting by merrily proposing that President Bashir should go the ICC "and save his country, defend his name" and not let the ICC issue drag all of Sudan down with him. A man should sacrifice for his country but the country shouldn't be sacrificed for one man. ¶7. (C) COMMENT: Not even isolation in Port Sudan's prison could wipe the smile off of Turabi's face as he explained what he sees as the brewing instability within the NCP. While the inveterate intriguer clearly has good reason to want to see the NCP fall from grace (having been booted from the government almost ten years ago after being the guiding force of the NIF regime for over a decade) he has apparently been briefed on the NCP's ill-advised decision to expel NGOs and the division this has created within the NCP. We have heard that some in the NCP do not agree with the expulsion of the NGOs, and we expect to see growing fissures in the party in the coming weeks. However, we have heard from several KHARTOUM 00000327 002 OF 002 sources that Vice President Taha -- the alleged regime moderate -- authorized the expulsion order and at the senior ranks of the party there appears to be relative unanimity around the decision to expel NGOs. Turabi's release may be viewed in that light - an effort to quell the dissension among Islamists in the NCP who do not want to see their own master suffer unnecessarily - as the NCP cannot afford too many internal fissures during this confrontation with the international community. FERNANDEZ