THE EXPULSION OF NGOS WAS THE "MINIMUM WE COULD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 000326 SIPDIS DEPT FOR A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2019 TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV PPKO SOCI AU SU SUBJECT: THE EXPULSION OF NGOS WAS THE "MINIMUM WE COULD DO" SAYS NCP POLCHIEF REF: A. KHARTOUM 311 ¶B. KHARTOUM 308 ¶C. KHARTOUM 306 ¶D. KHARTOUM 15 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: NCP political chief Mandour al-Mahdi said that Western fears of a worsening humanitarian crisis in Darfur following the expulsion of NGOs are greatly exaggerated as Sudanese organizations are ready, willing and able to step in. The NGOs in question had been preventing the voluntary return of internally displaced persons back home. Al-Mahdi said that the expulsions were "an absolute minimum" of what the regime could have done and that Sudan still wants dialogue with the U.S. and the West. He signaled possible regime flexibility in allowing some of the NGOs to return to the "three areas" (Abyei, Blue Nile, and Southern Kordofan) for a limited time as part of the NCP's ongoing dialogue with the SPLM and reiterated the regime's intentions to protect Western diplomatic premises and personnel. End Summary. SUDAN "OWNS" ANY FUTURE DETERIORATION -------------- ¶2. (C) On 10 March, CDA Fernandez met with NCP Political Chief Mandour Al-Mahdi to discuss the GoS expulsion of 13 INGOs from Northern Sudan and ask him about the GoS' plan of action moving forward (refs A-C). CDA explained to Al-Mahdi that the USG had been low-key in responding to the ICC announcement and was reviewing its Sudan policy, considering next steps but we have now been stymied due to the provocative and unfortunate GoS reaction of kicking out numerous humanitarian aid groups in response to the warrant. He noted that NGOs had not only been expelled, they had been abused and robbed by the Sudanese Government. Personal property, NGO property, and USG property used by NGOs had been looted. President Bashir seems to have focused on the U.S. (reftels) as the main culprit, even though we are not ICC members and have nothing to do with the court. Sudan now "owned" the humanitarian crisis in Darfur and if there is starvation, or disease outbreaks, or mass movements of desperate populations it will be because the GOS has destroyed the existing humanitarian framework in Darfur before anything was in place to replace it. ; ¶3. (C) Mandour, a pragmatic NCP hard-liner, responded that there are still 170 NGOs working in Sudan, and stuck to the regime line that the NGOs that were expelled had exceeded their humanitarian mandate and aided in assisting the ICC to make its case against Bashir. "We chose the minimum we could do" by choosing to expel these NGOs, said Al-Mahdi. He claimed that in the process of expelling NGOs, American NGOs were not specifically targeted and made the point that many American NGOs remain operative in Darfur and the Three Areas. Mandour said that the ICC decision was "tantamount to a declaration of war against Sudan," and aimed at destabilizing the country and removing the regime from power. Even though the U.S. was not an ICC member, it was a major factor in the ICC decision. The P-3 were the key element in making it happen and "our analysis is that this could not have taken place without your tacit approval." The fact that you refused to listen to the voice of the African Union, Arab League, OIC, and Non-Aligned, all of whom are with us, shows your complicity. EXPULSIONS A "MINIMUM RESPONSE" -------------- ¶4. (C) Al-Mahdi said that even through the expulsions were a "minimum," Sudanese are the ones feeling provoked and they have shown remarkable self-restraint so far. "We are ready to take further steps if need be," against more NGOs and against embassies. President Bashir's public criticism of the US were valid and accurate but "we will make sure that the embassy and its staff are not harmed in any way." He that despite the steps taken, "we are still ready for dialogue, even with the West, even with the French who have been the most extreme" of the P-3. Al-Mahdi said that the US offer of welcoming a visit by Deng Alor and Mustafa Othman Ismail in return for a reversal or freezing of the NGO expulsions "had not been much of an offer because we knew you were ready to do this already, before the expulsion decision was made, the SPLM KHARTOUM 00000326 002 OF 003 told us as much." ¶5. (C) Al-Mahdi remarked that the NGOs expelled were playing a negative role in Darfur IDP camps, preventing the voluntary return of IDPs to their homes. The NGOs were politicized and used "carrots and sticks" to keep IDPs in the camps. The regime had noticed that 45,000 people had returned spontaneously to the Muhajeria area in February 2009, once JEM was driven out, because NGOs had been temporarily evacuated and were not politicizing people, encouraging the rebels and fabricating false information about regime crimes such as mass rapes. Mandour said that now that the NGOs are gone, the environment in the IDP camps has improved remarkably. Kalma Camp, where GOS officials feared to tread and which was "rebel territory" is now eager to have regime officials come and visit. They interact normally and respond to their needs. What seems to be the case was that NGOs were hindering the normal reintegration of IDPs back into normal life and Sudan's natural social fabric. FEARS OF A GAP ARE EXAGGERATED -------------- ¶6. (C) Mandour said that the regime's "rapid assessment" of the impact of the expulsions in Darfur shows that the potential gap in all affected sectors - health, water and sanitation, and the distribution of food and Non-Food Items (NFI),could be addressed by existing NGOs (that partner with WFP),new and existing Sudanese NGOs, and the Sudanese Government. The NGOs were not donors, they were distributors, and anyone can do that. According to Al-Mahdi, the assessment shows that the amount of food that has been distributed to IDPs in Darfur is enough to last for two months. Al-Mahdi also said that 75 percent of water services in the field are currently "covered." He explained that the most important NFI item - tents - are only needed if more people are displaced and/or when the rains begin, which won't happen in Darfur for months. So the UN and NGOs are grossly exaggerating the fallout of the expulsions. He claimed that plenty of NFIs are available at WFP and pointed out that it is currently the dry season. Al-Mahdi admitted that the health sector in Darfur was most-affected by the NGO expulsion, but stated that there is no shortage of doctors in Sudan (in fact, he claimed they cannot find enough jobs for the number of doctors in Sudan) and that at the Ministry of Health sent 100 Sudanese doctors to Darfur in the last week to address the potential health crisis caused by foreign health workers leaving. At the same time, claimed Al-Mahdi, most of the health services in the IDP camps are provided by Sudanese citizens any and as a result, are not affected by the NGO expulsion. Al-Mahdi said that the upcoming joint UN-HAC assessment of the effect of the NGO expulsion, due to commence tomorrow, should provide more answers. Al-Mahdi went on to say that it doesn't expect the USG to "cease its support" for WFP. CDA told Al-Mahdi that the regime is suggesting a form of blackmail, forcing the USG to choose between punishing the innocent people of Darfur or the guilty GoS regime. "We do not want to punish the innocent for the guilty," CDA continued. ¶7. (C) CDA made the point that the expulsion of NGOs that provided critical peace-building and reconciliation programs in the Three Areas would have a direct impact on support to CPA implementation. Al-Mahdi admitted that there had been complaints from both local NCP and SPLM officials on the expulsion's effect in the Three Areas and the authorities were looking into it. He said that there may be some room for flexibility on allowing some of the NGOs that worked in the Three Areas to return for a limited time. Later in the day, SPLM Deputy SG Yasser Arman told CDA that the joint committee of the two parties continues to focus on the NGO issue in all its aspects. He noted that "there have been a lot of meetings, but little progress" in bridging the upset created by the NCP's unilateral actions against NGOs in the past few days. ¶8. (C) Comment: Mandour Al-Mahdi is the smoothest of the more doctrinaire wing of the NCP and glibly presented the regime's standard talking points on both the ICC and the NGO expulsions. Most interesting (and worrisome) was his analysis of how the removal of the offending NGOs could open the door to the mass "voluntary returns" of IDPs to their burnt-out and abandoned villages and fallow farmlands currently KHARTOUM 00000326 003 OF 003 occupied by heavily armed Arab tribesmen supported by the regime. If the regime is serious about using the expected services gap created by the NGO expulsion to "solve" the problem of about 2 million IDPs sitting in camps, then Darfur's problems are just getting started, given unresolved issues about ownership, compensation, and grazing rights. It is unclear how widely this view is held by the senior reaches of the NCP, but dismantling the camps could be explosive and any unilateral steps to do so should be monitored closely by the international community. End comment. FERNANDEZ