HOARSE BASHIR KICKS OFF DAYS OF ANTI-ICC, ANTI-WESTERN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000315 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: HOARSE BASHIR KICKS OFF DAYS OF ANTI-ICC, ANTI-WESTERN RALLIES OF REPUDIATION ¶1. (U) On March 5, Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, now a wanted ICC indictee, kicked off the first of a series of popular demonstrations aimed at solidifying support for the regime and for the President personally. While the rhetoric has often been incendiary, the rallies have so far been peaceful. NCP officials continue to stress privately that despite the bitter anti-Western rhetoric "for local consumption," the regime is acting responsibly towards its national and international treaty obligations and continues to behave that way. ¶2. (U) March 5th began with an unusual, live broadcast of the Sudanese cabinet of ministers meeting featuring various senior officials expressing their rejection of the ICC and unqualified support for the President. While SPLM officials and ministers present, including FVP Salva Kiir, and SLM Senior Assistant to the President Minni Minnawi kept silent, VP Taha, followed by Minister of Justice Sabdarat led the charge coolly focusing on legal, diplomatic and political reasons for opposing the ICC decision. ¶3. (U) The cabinet meeting concluded, senior officials moved directly to the much touted "million man" rally on Khartoum's Nile Avenue and Martyr's Square (the number seemed much smaller, perhaps under 100,000 according to some sources). Kiir and his ministers were able to make a hasty getaway but VP Taha, Eastern Front leader Musa Muhammad Ahmed, hardline Minister of Defense Abduraheem Hussein, Presidential Advisor Bona Malwal (an anti-SPLM, Southern renegade) and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Al-Samani al-Wasila (who heads a pro-regime DUP splinter group) enthusiastically joined Bashir on stage. Among the popular chants were; "Down, down, USA!" and "Oh Ocampo, you coward, Bashir is on the march," and the evergreen "With our souls and our blood, we will sacrifice for you, Bashir." ¶4. (U) A hoarse Bashir spoke extemporaneously noting that Sudan has been under attack by colonialism before and is again. He described how Sudan defeated "the international war criminal, Gordon Pasha" at the site where the Presidential Palace stands today. Colonialism later returned with more modern weapons but was resisted fiercely by the Sudanese, including Osman Digna, who broke the British Square. Sudan continued to resist when it became the first independent country in sub-Saharan Africa. ¶5. (U) Bashir described the attempts of "neo-colonialism" for the past 20 years (the years of NCP rule) to impose its will on Sudan. The ICC, International Monetary Fund (IMF),and UN Security Council are all tools of this new form of colonialism. Sudan is a symbol of one of free peoples in the third world - Asia, Africa and Latin America - which resists these forces of hegemony. The President gave a shout-out of support to the "mujahids of Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza" who are also resisting these forces. He attacked those countries who talked so much about human rights and persecuted tribes in Darfur but had slaughtered the original inhabitants of the Americas and Australia. He moved on to the "crimes of America" - Hiroshima, Nagasaki, Vietnam and Iraq - adding that the former US President had lied to his own people and the world about weapons of mass destruction and had destroyed Iraq, causing millions of deaths and refugees, which dwarfed anything that happened in Darfur. America also blindly supported Israel and its many crimes against the Palestinians and in Lebanon. ¶6. (U) Warming up, Bashir said that the true criminals and liars are the United States and Europe. The West had tried an economic siege against Sudan and it had failed, it had tried a diplomatic siege and it had failed. He warned that neo-colonialism wants Sudan's oil, gas, land and water, "we say no to them." The President boasted about the expulsion of Western NGOs on March 4 and warned that others - both NGOs and diplomats - can stay as long as they behave, if not they too will be expelled. On March 7, the regime organized still another rally in support of Bashir, by "the sons of South Sudan," featuring a range of pro-NCP Southern renegades including Bona Malwal and former Foreign Minister Lam Akol. March 8 the President takes the show on the road to Darfur, starting in El Fasher, with the presence of most of the diplomatic corps (except for the excluded P-3) and that of SRSG Qazi, JSR Adada, and UN/AU Mediator Bassole to add a patina of international legitimacy to his outbursts. ¶7. (SBU) Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salahudin crowed to CDA Fernandez on March 7 that "we should thank Ocampo, because the President has never been more popular, and will easily sweep democratic elections this year now." But he also noted that the USG should not take the bitter anti-American rhetoric - much of it off the cuff - coming from the President, from other senior NCP officials, from the state-controlled media and from mosque prayer KHARTOUM 00000315 002 OF 002 leaders at face value. Other senior NCP officials have made the same point for months - that popular mobilization, incendiary rhetoric, and targeted expulsion of some NGOs (although the actual number and scope of those ordered to leave has even surprised many inside the regime) - would constitute a "measured response," that the regime would exercise restraint, and that the NCP was acutely aware of its responsibilities and obligations. ¶8. (SBU) Comment: The Khartoum regime has so far, in the early days of the crisis, succeeded in keeping some sort of separation between verbal escalation and tangible acts - but only just. It is still early, though, and emotions are running very high in Sudan. Certainly both the expelled and some remaining NGOs are experiencing increased ongoing harassment, theft, and pressure. The regime also clearly intends to use the UN/AU presence to its benefit, providing it as a convenient political cover for its actions. It remains to be seen in the long run, however, whether a regime that frequently and clumsily uses brutality and cruelty as a daily political weapon can now whip up the mob, work itself into a public frenzy, and still be in control of events, and walking this fine line. End comment. FERNANDEZ