"NEW SUDAN" WAS A MYTH, SAYS SOUTHERN OPPOSITION LEADER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000003 DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, SE WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG, AF/E NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: "NEW SUDAN" WAS A MYTH, SAYS SOUTHERN OPPOSITION LEADER ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Garang Vision of a "New Sudan" is a myth, and any Southern leaders who think otherwise are simply deluding themselves because Arab resistance to Southern governance is simply insurmountable, veteran Southern independence figure Peter Sule told poloffs on December 23. Sule also dismissed the notion that Salva Kiir would even consider running for national office. With regard to the census, Sule stated that a negotiated settlement will be necessary to resolve any disputed results, because calls for a new census would only serve to delay elections and ultimately, the referendum. He also stated that unless Southern opposition parties receive government funding to travel and campaign in all ten Southern states, they cannot compete fairly with the SPLM, which he asserted is using government coffers for campaign purposes. Sule also expressed concern that the GOSS was inciting tribal conflict in his native province of Central Equatoria. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Bio note: Peter Sule is a member of the National Assembly and Chairman of the United Democratic Front (UDF),a Southern opposition party. He belongs to the influential Bari tribe, and has a long history of involvement in the South Sudan independence movement, dating back to the 1970s when he led the Immatong Liberation Front (ILF). The ILF later merged with the SPLM/A Nasir Faction in 1991 to become the South Sudan Independence Movement (SSIM),and in 1999 became the United Democratic Salvation Front (UDSF). He became UDSF's Chairman after Dr. Riek Machar left the movement to rejoin the SPLM/A. In 2003, UDSF changed its name to United Democratic Front (UDF). Unlike the SPLM, the UDF "openly calls for an independent South Sudan," said Sule. ¶3. (SBU) Sule noted that the SPLM and Southern opposition parties had reached consensus that if results of the census indicate that South Sudan accounts for less than 30 percent of the population, they ought to reject the census and call for another. But he expressed concern that a call for a new census would delay elections and ultimately the referendum. Accordingly, he emphasized the need for some sort of negotiated outcome. (Note: Sule estimated the population of the South to exceed 15 million, claiming that there were 4 million Catholics recorded as having been baptized in Southern Sudan. He added that if non-recorded Catholics, Anglicans, other Christians, and the South's small Muslim population and those with no religious affiliation were also counted, this figure would easily exceed 15 million. End Note.) ¶4. (SBU) Sule stated that his party was in favor of elections as a practice of democratic transformation, but was wary of the massive logistical and financial challenges to holding elections in the South. Even if these were somehow overcome, he expressed grave concern that unless funding was provided to enable opposition party representatives to travel and campaign in all ten states of South Sudan, the SPLM would dominate. "They will be using the national coffers for party purposes," he said. "We need a level playing field." ¶5. (SBU) Sule was highly doubtful that the SPLM would mount a national campaign, or that Salva Kiir would run for national office. "He doesn't even like to think about the idea," said Sule, adding that it would be a foolhardy thing to do because if and when he lost, he would have nothing to show for it. Sule further stated that the Garang wing of the SPLM was deluding themselves into thinking that a "New Sudan" was possible, noting that while tribalism could (with difficulty) be overcome in the South, it was impossible to reconcile North-South differences. "If Garang was alive today, he would have exercised his powers to the fullest extent until he realized he was fighting an uphill battle" against Northerners seeking to undermine him, said Sule. "Why bother when you can rule the South with no obstacles?" He concluded by saying that the Garang wing of the SPLM was simply deluding themselves and wasting valuable time and energy on an unattainable goal. "They should instead divert their energy to making the South a more inhabitable place," he said. ¶6. (SBU) Sule also expressed concern that the GOSS was inciting tribal conflict in the South. "I'm worried about tensions between the Dinka and everyone else," he said. As noted, Sule belongs to the Bari tribe, and he passed to poloffs an open letter from the Bari community to Salva Kiir demanding that the capital of South Sudan be relocated from Juba elsewhere. The letter chastises the GOSS for failing to provide peace and security in Juba and its environs (to which the Bari are indigenous.) It accuses the GOSS of dispossessing the Bari of their native lands and resettling large numbers of non-native tribes in Central Equatoria as part of a scheme to occupy and marginalize native people (Bari complain that even the US-built SPLA IGHQ is on stolen land). "For the sake of peace and security in Central Equatoria, and to give the citizens of Juba their constitutional and natural rights to administer and plan for the development of their town and state, we call upon the GOSS to kindly KHARTOUM 00000003 002 OF 002 move out of Juba and relocate to another town or place which will then be the new capital of South Sudan," it concludes. Tension between the Bari and Dinka was one of several factors that led to the collapse of Sudan's last peace accord in 1983 ¶7. (SBU) Comment: Sule has the luxury of saying what many in the SPLM cannot: that it's inconceivable that Salva Kiir will run for the Presidency of Sudan. In his three years as First Vice President of the GNU, Kiir has seldom shown a sustained commitment toward national issues such as the conflict in Darfur; his primary objective in this regard has been to maintain stable relations with Khartoum and not infuriate it by "interfering" too much in northern issues while zealously protecting the CPA. There is little indication that this approach will change in the run-up to elections. Indeed, governing the South is a huge challenge in itself. The tensions between the Bari and non-indigenous tribes in Central Equatoria (such as the politically dominant Dinka),not to mention other longstanding tribal rivalries in the South, reflect the grave challenges the South will eventually face as an independent state without common enemy in Khartoum to unite it. FERNANDEZ