SPLM LEADERSHIP IN THE NUBA MOUNTAINS IN FLUX

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000264 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL NSC FOR CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: SPLM LEADERSHIP IN THE NUBA MOUNTAINS IN FLUX REFS: A. KHARTOUM 186 ¶B. 08 KHARTOUM 1455 ¶C. 08 KHARTOUM 1435 ¶D. 08 KHARTOUM 1427 ¶E. 08 KHARTOUM 1309 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. In a decisive and long-overdue move, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Council of Southern Kordofan voted to oust Deputy Governor Daniel Kodi from his position of SPLM State Chairman. The vote of no-confidence in Kodi as the SPLM's lead-man in the Nuba Mountains is not surprising given Kodi's persistent ineffectiveness, much of which can be blamed on his notorious alcoholism,. The SPLM State Council is asking that the SPLM National Secretariat in Juba also remove Kodi from his position as Deputy Governor and Acting State Minister of Finance. According to SPLM representatives in the region, Nubans are hopeful that SPLM Southern Kordofan native Abdel Aziz Al-Helou will assume the state Chairmanship, but they acknowledge that Al-Helou is already a very busy man with the SPLM's Darfur portfolio. In light of the recent crisis of leadership plaguing the SPLM Nuba, Deputy Secretary General of the SPLM for the Southern Sector Dr. Anne Itto will travel to the region to meet with party representatives (ref A). There are also tentative plans for Chairman and President of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) Salva Kiir Mayardit to make his first visit to the State soon. End Summary. KODI OUSTED BY A VOTE OF NO-CONFIDENCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On 19 February, voted to remove Daniel Kodi from the position of SPLM State Chairman by a vote of 33 to two (with two abstentions.) Deputy Speaker of the Southern Kordofan State Legislature Saddiq Mansour (SPLM) told poloff on 24 February that the strong vote of no-confidence in Kodi comes as a result of his "weak performance in all sectors" on behalf of the SPLM in Southern Kordofan (reftels A and C). USAIDoffs were in Southern Kordofan when the vote of no-confidence took place. They spoke with Mansour as well as the SPLM Southern Kordofan Liberation Council Secretary General Arnu, former State Minister of Finance Ahmed Saeed (SPLM), Assessment and Evaluation Commission member Neroun Phillip (SPLM), Lagawa County Commissioner Tia (SPLM),and the SPLM Executive Director of Julud Hamat Jaywat. Most of these individuals provided them with the same explanation for Kodi's removal: he had not been producing results or consulting other party members on his decisions, and as a result, the SPLM was dissatisfied with his performance. The SPLM State Council also recommended to Salva Kiir Mayardit, the SPLM Chairman and the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, that Kodi be removed from his state executive position as Deputy Governor and Acting State Minister for Finance. ¶3. (SBU) Mansour told poloff on 24 February that a State Congress will take place in Kadugli, the capital of Southern Kordofan, in one month's time in order for the SPLM State Council to elect a new SPLM State Chairman. Mansour said that "people are asking" for Southern Kordofan native and SPLM leader Abdel Aziz Helou to assume the position of SPLM State Chairman. Mansour's opinion is that Helou will not accept the position because he already "carries a very heavy load" for the SPLM by handling the party's Darfur portfolio. Mansour told poloff that even if Helou refuses the position, he is sure that "someone who is capable" will assume the State Chairman role. SPLM State Secretary Arnu told USAIDoffs in Kadugli that the SPLM had intended to save Helou's arrival on the Southern Kordofan scene for 2009 elections. According to Arnu, the SPLM was concerned that if Helou were to serve as Deputy Governor in Southern Kordofan State under the current NCP Governor (who is also a former intelligence operative) that Helou's effectiveness would have been stifled, thus hurting his chances of winning 2009 elections in the state. ¶4. (SBU) Recently-removed State Minister of Finance Dr. Ahmed Saeed (SPLM) told USAIDoffs that Kodi believes that Saeed was conspiring to take Kodi's position as SPLM State Chairman (and potentially Deputy Governor if Kodi is also removed from that position.) As a result, Dr. Ahmed, who in fact believes that he is at the top of the list of likely candidates after Helou to succeed Kodi for the State Chairmanship, will therefore be hesitant to accept the position if it is offered to him. Following the vote of no-confidence, SPLM state representatives alleged that Kodi called for SPLA commanders to stand against what he believed to be a conspiracy against him. Former Governor of Southern Kordofan and high-ranking SPLA commander Ismael Khamis Jalab traveled to Kadugli to convince Kodi to halt his calls for SPLA involvement in the event. USAIDoffs were told by SPLM officials that Jalab explained to Kodi that the vote was part of a diplomatic process and therefore must be accepted. [Note: Dr. Ahmed Saeed was unfairly dismissed as State Minister of Finance in September 2008 by Southern Kordofan Governor Omer Suleiman because KHARTOUM 00000264 002 OF 002 of disagreements over the state budget. Many SPLM members were frustrated by Kodi's inability to get Dr. Saeed reinstated. End Note.] A POTENTIAL VISIT BY KIIR TO SOUTHERN KORDOFAN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Mansour told poloff that Deputy Secretary of the SPLM Southern Sector, Dr. Anne Itto, will travel to Kadugli in the nextQ few days to meet with SPLM members in Southern Kordofan regarding the latest events. Mansour also said that SPLA Chairman Salva Kiir plans to visit Southern Kordofan in the near future, but that the date is not yet fixed. The visit would be Salva Kiir's first to Southern Kordofan since the signing of the CPA. ConGen Juba poloff will meet with Dr. Itto this week to follow-up on Itto's visit to the region (to be reported septel). COMMENT - - - - ¶6. (SBU) Kodi has not only been largely ineffective in his role as the SPLM Chairman and Deputy State Governor in Southern Kordofan, but based on his call for the SPLM to boycott the census and his negative attitude towards integration, he has also been a troublemaker. As reported by Embassy Khartoum on several occasions in the past few months, the SPLM Nuba have been confronting a very serious crisis of leadership in Southern Kordofan (refs A and C). Kodi has not been successful in communicating his people's concerns to the SPLM National Secretariat in Juba nor to the Government of National Unity in Khartoum. Furthermore, he has not formulated a vision for the SPLM an the Nuba Mountains as 2009 elections and the 2011 popular consultation draw near. Kodi's ousting is an opportunity for the SPLM to inject fresh energy and new leadership into the party in Southern Kordofan. A strong and wise SPLM leader who is familiar with the issues of the region can effectively communicate the latter to the SPLM in Juba. Such a leader can also mobilize and set a realistic agenda for the SPLM in the Nuba Mountains. This is what is needed to foster stability in the state and move the SPLM and CPA implementation in the right direction. End Comment. FERNANDEZ