DARFUR ROUNDUP: JEM CLASHES WITH SLA/MM AND SAF; SKEPTICISM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000245 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, AF/C NSC FOR MGAVIN AND CHUDSON ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: DARFUR ROUNDUP: JEM CLASHES WITH SLA/MM AND SAF; SKEPTICISM ABOUNDS ON DOHA REF: KHARTOUM 236 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: MFA U/S Mutriff Siddiq told CDA Fernandez on February 22 that despite its public statements, the NCP recognizes that little was achieved at the recent talks in Doha, and that no agreement to which JEM is the only party will bring peace to Darfur. Siddiq also accused JEM of destabilizing the situation in Darfur by engaging SLA/MM and later the SAF in fighting on February 21-22. Sources at UNDSS confirmed clashes between JEM and SLA/MM on February 21 near Shangil Tobay, and confirmed reports of GOS bombing in the Dobo Madrassa-Faluga region where JEM was said to be present. On February 23, a UNDSS officer told poloff that the latest reports indicate JEM has fled North to an area west of Mellit, where it is aggressively being pursued by the SAF. The Egyptian Embassy expressed concern that the Doha meeting excluded several major rebel movements and will do little to change the situation on the ground in Darfur, a concern also voiced by several prominent civil society leaders. End Summary. JEM CLASHES WITH SLA/MM, SAF -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On February 22, MFA U/S Mutriff Siddiq told CDA Fernandez that "nothing was achieved in Doha," and the NCP, even though it is publicly trumpeting the agreement, realizes that it really is not an agreement at all. "The outcome was far behind our ambitions," he said. According to Siddiq, no agreement will work if JEM is the only party, because JEM will just become like Minnawi's SLA/MM after the DPA was signed. He did note, however, that the GOS achieved something by insisting on the principle that the process should be inclusive and other groups should be invited in (something which JEM initially resisted),which was included in the final document. Meanwhile, Siddiq said that JEM is actually escalating the conflict in Darfur, and that the GOS has information that Chad sent a re-supply convoy to assist JEM in East Jebel Mara. He said JEM first engaged SLM/MM in fighting over the weekend and then engaged the SAF in fighting, in the course of the re-supply effort. (Note: news of the JEM re-supply convoy and clashes with SLM/MM were also brought to the attention of CDA by SLM/MM MP Ali Traio on February 21. End Note.) 
 ¶3. (SBU) UNDSS sources confirmed that fighting between SLA/MM and JEM took place on February 21 at around 16:00 in the area of Wadi Mora (near Tabit) about 20 kilometers North of Shangil Tobay. SLA/MM was reportedly supported by GOS aerial bombing. The SLA/MM Field Commander confirmed the clashes to UNDSS, as well as the aerial attacks in the village of Tamarara, located in the Wadi Mora area. UNDSS also reported that on the morning of February 21, GOS Antonov bombers conducted aerial bombardments in the vicinity of Dobo Madrassa, though there were no casualties reported. During the afternoon of that same day, a GOS Antonov bombed Faluga village, where about thirty civilians were injured. (Note: At the time, JEM forces were said to be present in the greater Dobo Madrassa-Faluga region. End Note.) Nine of the injured received medical treatment at an INGO (MDM) clinic at Deribat, while the others were treated at an MDM clinic at Faluga. MDM told UNDSS that its staff based at Deribat had spent the last two nights in bunkers out of fear of possible aerial bombardments, following a constant presence of GOS airplanes hovering around the town throughout the night. ¶4. (SBU) Several other rebel factions reported clashing with JEM forces in East Jebel Marra. On February 22, the little-known, Arab-led movement United Revolutionary Force Front (URFF) issued a statement decrying an attempted assassination of its Commander-in-Chief Yassein Yousif Abdelrahman by JEM forces in "south Ttabet (sic) area near Jabel Marra" (Yousif is a Baggara Rizeigat who once fought for the SPLA) On February 22, United Resistance Front (URF) Political Secretary Tajeldin Niam told poloff that JEM had attacked URF forces led by Bahar Abu Garda in East Jebel Marra on February 21, and accused the GOS of having a "*secret* agreement" with the JEM for the latter to destroy all other rebel movements in Darfur. On February 23, a UNDSS officer told poloff that over the past several days there have been continuous unconfirmed reports of clashes along the border of North and South Darfur, and that the situation remains chaotic. However, he believes that the bulk of the fighting is between JEM and the SAF. He stated the latest information he had received indicated that JEM is being actively pursued by SAF and has now fled North to the area of Daba Tuga, west of Mellit. "It appears the SAF is chasing JEM around the hills," he said. (Note: On February 23, SLA/Unity commander Abdalla Yahia told emboff there was fighting between the SAF and JEM in Daba Tuga and Turra. End Note.) EGYPTIANS CONCERNED ABOUT DIRECTION OF PEACE PROCESS -------------- -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Also on February 22, Egyptian first secretary Tamer Azzam told poloff that Egypt continues to be concerned by the direction of the peace process. Qatar and Bassole have "undermined regional efforts and excluded major rebel movements," and if this continues, it will lead to another useless agreement between the Zaghawa and the GOS, stated Azzam. Given his courtship of JEM, it may be impossible for Chief Mediator Bassole to change the negative opinion of rival rebel movements such as SLA/AW, SLA/Unity, and the URF. Although not optimistic about his chances of success, Azzam said that the Chief Mediator should now focus on bringing SLM/Unity into the process and working towards a Cessation of Hostilities. ¶6. (SBU) Azzam also stated that Minnawi's February 17-19 visit to Egypt was the GOE's attempt to play a supportive role in the process to "give some attention to an important movement, and neutralize the negative role that SLM/MM could play at this stage." In addition to discussing the peace process in Cairo, Minnawi requested more development aid for Darfur be channeled through the TDRA. Azzam also noted that the GOE's efforts to mediate between SLM/MM and the GOS on returning Muhajarriya to Minnawi's control have not been successful. "The GOS has not given us a straight answer on returning Minnawi's land, and they want his forces to be integrated into SAF before the land is returned," stated Azzam. ¶7. (SBU) Azzam stated that the February 22 visit by President Bashir to Egypt focused on the impending ICC arrest warrant, and not the peace process. The February 14 visit of Egyptian Foreign Minister Aboul-Gheit and intelligence director Omer Suleiman also focused on this issue and showed Egypt's support for both Sudan and an Article 16 resolution. "The GOS is very stressed right now, and you need to realize that if more pressure is put on Sudan, very bad things could happen," said Azzam. He stated that he takes GOS Intelligence Chief Salah Al-Gosh's February 20 remarks "very seriously - he was issuing a real warning, not just speaking to the masses." (Note: As reported in reftel, Gosh stated at a military promotion ceremony that "We [the government] were Islamic extremists, but then became moderate and civilized believing in peace and life for everyone. However we will revert back to how we were if necessary. There is nothing any easier than that." End Note.) CIVIL SOCIETY LEADERS ALSO DISAPPOINTED IN DOHA -------------- -- ¶8. (SBU) Darfuri civil society activists expressed disappointment at the GOS-JEM talks in Doha. On February 22, noted human rights advocate and Fur leader Salih Mahmoud Osman told poloff that "bilateral agreements have proven to be of little help in Darfur. We cannot expect that this will settle the whole conflict in Darfur." After attending the talks as a parliamentary observer for the Sudanese Communist Party, Osman described the Qataris as "genuinely interested in peace and development in Darfur," but lacking a realistic perspective on the conflict. El Tigani Sesei, Fur leader and former governor of North Darfur, told poloff by telephone from Addis on February 19 that he predicts the Doha agreement to have a destabilizing effect on Darfur. Sesei sees the agreement as crowding out other rebel movements in favor of JEM, which will in turn de-legitimize Bassole, and keep other prominent rebel actors from buying into future agreements. Ahmed Adam Yousif, a Darfuri peace activist and founder of the El Fasher-based Ajaweed Organization for Peace and Development, was likewise critical of the Doha agreement, questioning Bassole's strategy of legitimizing JEM at the cost of undermining what remains of the DPA. ¶9. (SBU) Comment: Less than a week after the conclusion of the Doha talks, the chaotic violence in Darfur has shown little sign of abating. Indeed, it could be argued that the situation has worsened, with JEM as a destabilizing factor: not only does it remain a target of GOS bombers (for lack of a ceasefire agreement),but also has now attracted the ire of other rebel groups. They have condemned JEM's unilateralism and disregard for their territorial holdings, as it tries to escape through Jebel Mara back into Chad. The other rebel movements are even less likely now to sign on to the Doha talks. To overcome their mistrust, JMC Bassole ought to explore a series of parallel talks (in Doha or another venue) to bring about either parallel security agreements linked to a common political framework, or a broad-based ceasefire (if possible) to improve security on the ground in Darfur. JEM seems to be strong enough to create additional havoc and suffering in Darfur but not strong enough to impose order or remove any of its increasingly angry rivals from the field. FERNANDEZ