NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION STILL AIMS FOR ELECTIONS IN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000234 DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, DRL NSC FOR CHUDSON DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KPKO KDEM SOCI AU UNSC SU SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTORAL COMMISSION STILL AIMS FOR ELECTIONS IN 2009 REF: Khartoum 137 1.(SBU) Summary. UNMIS reports that it continues to develop a good relationship with the National Electoral Commission (NEC),and that the Commission is intent on holding elections in 2009. Although severely understaffed and without its own operating budget, the NEC leadership has begun to make headway in naming some members of the twenty-six high-level electoral committees on the state and southern-Sudan level. NCP official Ibrahim Ghandour claims that no parties, other than the NCP and the National Umma Party, want elections to take place, due to eroding party bases, the economic downturn, and internal party strife. Ghandour said the NCP has reached out to the SPLM for a coalition in the upcoming elections, but that the SPLM "does not know what it wants to do." End Summary. ELECTORAL PREPARATION MOVES FORWARD, ALBEIT SLOWLY - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) The Electoral Assistance Group, chaired by UNMIS Chief Electoral Affairs Officer Ray Kennedy, met in Khartoum on 19 February to discuss the latest developments on preparation for the Sudanese elections. Kennedy said that the relationship between the National Electoral Commission (NEC) and UNMIS Electoral Affairs staff continues to develop, but is not "quite where we [UNMIS] want it yet." According to Kennedy, this is partly because the NEC still remains "severely understaffed," with only ten employees (nine NEC members and the Secretary General). Kennedy said that the NEC submitted a formal budget request for its operating expenses (but not yet for the elections) to the Government of National Unity (GNU) Presidency only last week. While Kennedy did not know the amount of the NEC's budget request, he did say that there is "no expectation" by the NEC that what it requested will be fully funded by the GNU Ministry of Finance. [Note: The NEC is currently working off of money left over from the General Election Authority budget. End Note.] ¶3. (SBU) Currently, the NEC is prioritizing the recruitment of staff for the twenty-six electoral high committees at the state and southern Sudan level. According to Kennedy, the Commission has identified at least five names for each high committee (twenty to twenty-five names per committee are needed.) The NEC members intend to travel to each state as part of the high committee identification process. In terms of constituency delimitation, the Commission has been told that it will receive the figures it needs from the final census results "within the next few days" in order to start the process. [Note: This process could be delayed if there is ardent disagreement between the SPLM and the NCP on the final census figures. End note.] ¶4. (SBU) Kennedy said that the Commission is nearing its completion of a notional timetable for the elections and continues to pledge that it will deal with obstacles "as they arise." He reported that there is a "very strong desire" by the NEC to hold elections in ¶2009. Kennedy also said that the Commission members have indicated that a 9 July date for elections "cannot be feasibly reached." The UNMIS Electoral Chief lamented to electoral donors that a significant amount of 2009 dry season time has already been lost. Kennedy said UNMIS has voiced its concerns to the NEC about the constraints of holding key activities, such as voter registration and/or elections, during the rainy season. In response, the NEC Deputy Chair Abdalla Abdalla (also a Dean of the School of Agriculture at University of Khartoum) claimed that the period between 15 July and 15 October is the only time when operations cannot be conducted. UNMIS electoral staff in Juba beg to differ, saying that the non-operating time in southern Sudan due to the rainy season is much longer than what Abdalla is willing to acknowledge. UNMIS ELECTORAL ASSISTANCE - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) Kennedy told donors that so far UNMIS has provided the NEC with: a voter registration strategy document with various options for voter registration, a catalog of electoral rules, regulations and procedures that need to be developed by the NEC, fact sheets on the basic elements of elections, maps to use for the process of constituency delimitation, and communication and civic and voter education strategies. ¶6. (SBU) According to Kennedy, the UNMIS electoral affairs unit is up to 75 or 80 staff, with a new person joining the team almost every day. Kennedy is working with UNDP to find a way to bring 75 UN volunteers on board to be posted in northern Sudan during the electoral process. [Note: Kennedy currently does not have the budget KHARTOUM 00000234 002 OF 002 to do this, but UNDP may. End note.] UNMIS has still not received the GNU invitation to assist in the elections that it needs to fully carry out its mission. Kennedy believes this is due to the lack of organization at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA),where the draft invitation was last seen. The NEC Deputy Chairman has been frustrated by the MFA's sluggishness in reviewing, signing off on, and sending the invitation to UNMIS. He told Kennedy that the NEC would write another invitation for the MFA's review if need be. NCP THOUGHTS ON THE ELECTION - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Poloff met with NCP lead electoral negotiator Ibrahim Ghandour on 19 February. Ghandour, who is also a National Assembly member, the President of the Sudan Workers Trade Unions Federation, and a key party financier claimed that most Sudanese political parties "still do not want elections." He said that the SPLM is nervous about elections. He cited as reasons the current economic crisis and the party's resulting lack of resources, internal differences within the party, and the SPLM's waning tribal support in the South (particularly among the Shilluk.) Ghandour claimed that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) - Mirghani Sect is "shattered" as a party and is no longer receiving significant financial or ideological support from Egypt thus is not well-poised for elections. Finally, while the Communist Party currently enjoys representation in the National Assembly, it does not have the base it needs to get Communist party candidates re-elected to positions of power. Ghandour said that only the NCP and the National Umma Party truly want elections. According to the NCP heavyweight, Umma only wants elections because as it currently has no representation in the national government, it stands to lose nothing. ¶8. (SBU) If elections don't happen on time, said Ghandour, the reason will bd that the parties are not willing to conduct them in a timely fashion. Ghandour said that the NCP has asked the SPLM to join it as a partner in "the driver's seat" for elections. According to Ghandour, the SPLM responded that the NCP is making the same arrangement with the National Umma Party. Ultimately, said Ghandour, "the SPLM doesn't know what it wants to do." ¶9. (SBU) Comment: While preparations move forward slowly, there is significant concern that elections could be unnecessarily rushed and held by the CPA date of July 2009 (in the middle of the rainy season.) Rushed elections earlier in the year would give the NCP an even greater advantage over other parties than it already has, and provide much needed political legitimacy to a beleaguered President Bashir sooner rather than later. The problem is that neither the NCP nor the SPLM wants to be the party to be blamed for a delay, so they are in the midst of tortuous discussions on timing. The referendum also plays into this discussion; the SPLM is seeking guarantees on a firm referendum date in exchange for reaching an understanding with the NCP on timing and a potential lineup for the elections which could very well keep the status quo in place. End comment. FERNANDEZ