WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE?

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000166

DEPT FOR AF A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/E, AF/C
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO SOCI AU UNSC SU
SUBJECT: WHAT EVER HAPPENED TO THE SUDAN PEOPLE'S INITIATIVE?

REF: A) KHARTOUM 1754
B) KHARTOUM 1549
C) KHARTOUM 1504


1. (SBU) Summary: The Sudan People's Initiative (SPI) has been given
a headquarters and some funding, but no mandate or support from GOS
officials to implement its recommendations, Chairman of the SPI
Drafting Committee Professor Atayeb Hajj Attia told CDA Fernandez in
a meeting on February 5. While several leading, squabbling NCP
figures continue to exert their influence on the Darfur portfolio,
there is no clear leader among them and thus no clear Darfur policy,
he said. He also stated that the impending ICC announcement has
triggered a wave of internal machinations within the regime and
essentially paralyzed any and all decision-making. Attia feared that
the ICC would lead to the eventual downfall of President Bashir, and
that with no clear successor this could easily lead to a total
breakdown of the state apparatus and trigger regional conflict, a
"somalization" of Sudan. He also warned of impending political and
economic collapse in South Sudan, triggered by plunging oil
revenues. Attia is a respected elder statesman of the academic
community in Sudan and his observations deserve close attention. End
Summary.


2. (SBU) On February 5 CDA Fernandez met with Professor Atayeb Hajj
Attia, the Director of the Peace Research Center of the University
of Khartoum who served as Chairman of the Drafting Committee at the
Sudan People's Initiative (SPI) in Kenana (ref A). Attia expressed
frustration that he was been unable to make real progress on
implementing the SPI recommendations. "They gave me a nice building
to serve as a headquarters, and a check to fund activities," he
said. "But there is no process, and no point of contact. There's no
one person [in the government] that you can talk to get anything
done," he said, adding that (with the sole exception of VP Ali Osman
Taha) it is impossible to consistently get any of the Ministers or
Presidential Advisors on the phone. "They all shut off their mobiles
and work in isolation," he remarked. Senior regime leaders seemed to
be more concerned about NCP internal power struggles than progress
in Darfur, he complained.


3. (SBU) Attia believes that the SPI process has stalled because of
resistance from within the GOS. He noted that the various actors
exerting influence on the Darfur portfolio (including Presidential
Advisor Dr. Nafie Ali Nafie, Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha,
NISS Chief Salah Ghosh, Defense Minister Abdelrahim Hussein, Financ
Minister Awad al-Jaz) each have their reasons to withhold
implementing the SPI recommendations. "Some feel they need to leave
some cards on the table before talks in Doha," while others are
still advocating for a military solution, he said. This lack of a
clear policy is as much about internal NCP machinations as it is
about lack of cnsensus, he said. The impending ICC announcement has
put tremendous pressure on the regime and essentially paralyzed
decision-making. "No one wants to take ay initiative or propose
concrete steps," because they are afraid of how it will affect their
position in the current balance of power, he said.


4. (SBU) Though he has had doubts about continuing the uphill battle
to implement the SPI recommendations, Attia told CDA that he remains
committed to trying, hoping that he can leverage the Doha Peace
talks to push forward the process. He is focused on grassroots
issues--voluntary returns, tribal reconciliations, compensation and
blood money--which can have tangible effects on the ground. "The big
macro issues, we can leave to Doha," he said. Unfortunately, he
added, the situation in Darfur is deteriorating rapidly, with an
increasing polarization between (and inside) different tribes and
rebel movements.


5. (SBU) Attia also told CDA that in his capacity at the Peace
Research Center of the University of Khartoum, he is bringing
together representatives of different political parties for
closed-door discussions on how to ensure a "soft landing" in the
wake of the ICC announcement. He hopes that a candid discussion of
views will help avert a disaster, but he himself is not optimistic.
"At some point, this country will be so weakened that Bashir will
need to step down," he said, arguing that with no clear successor
this could easily lead to a total breakdown of the state apparatus.
"There are many actors who think that if the regime collapses, they
can take over," he said. "But in reality, it's a huge hkle that will
cause the entire boat to sink." He noted that as the only African
country bordering all three "conflict belts"--the Horn of Africa,
the Great Lakes, and the Sahel--Sudan had the potential to set off a
chain reaction of violence that could propel much of Africa into
chaos. Attia had just returned from Cairo where he described
Egyptian officials as deeply concerned about the possible
"somalization" of Sudan.


6. (SBU) To fend off this potential disaster, Attia urged CDA that
the USG take strong, early steps and "widen its mandate" in Sudan.

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"You need a new comprehensive model, rather that just replacing the
people at the top," he said. He advocated that the USG pursue strong
and direct engagement with the GOS and exert "heavy pressure outside
and inside, in cooperation other international stakeholders," to
further goals of peace and security. Without such action, the
situation will likely deteriorate quickly, he said.


7. (SBU) Attia also sounded alarm bells about the political and
economic crisis in South Sudan. The plunging oil revenues will
reveal the weakness of the South's economy and political system
within months, he said, warning that "a storm is coming." He noted
that SPLM has in many ways adopted the worst practices of the NCP
and equally paralyzed in its decision-making. "The SPLM has learned
more quickly than my brightest students," he joked. "Even their
corruption practices are analogous to those of the NCP." He added
that the former rebels of Sudan's Eastern Front, feeling betrayed by
both the NCP and their former allies in the SPLM, are also deeply
unhappy and talking about going back to fighting.


8. (SBU) Comment: Attia is one of the most respected political
scientists in Sudan and we give some credibility to the gloomy views
he expressed. The SPI represents the latest in empty promises and
hollow spectacles put forth by the NCP regime. It also serves as an
unwelcome reminder that the regime remains mostly unwilling--and
perhaps more worryingly, unable--to take substantive and positive
steps towards resolving the conflict in Darfur. If true, the
paralysis of decision-making amongst the NCP leadership is likely to
be exacerbated by the ICC indictment. And though Attia's fears of a
total meltdown might be premature, strong engagement with the regime
on the part of the USG and international community are the best hope
for preventing further violence and chaos, not just in Darfur but in
the rest of Sudan as well, especially the South.

FERNANDEZ