DUP DEPUTY CHAIRMAN FEARS ICC CHAOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 000014

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DEPT FOR AF A/S FRAZER, S/E WILLIAMSON, AF/SPG
NSC FOR PITTMAN AND HUDSON
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/06/2019
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: DUP DEPUTY CHAIRMAN FEARS ICC CHAOS

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) Deputy
Chairman and vocal ICC supporter Ali Mahmoud Hassanein told
CDA Fernandez on January 5 that he feared Sudan would plunge
into chaos upon the issuance of an arrest warrant against
President Bashir. Hassanein described his December 29
detention at the hands of NISS for statements he made in
support of the ICC, and expressed fear for his life as a
result. He claimed that in preparation for the ICC arrest
warrant against Bashir, the NCP during the past ten days has
distributed arms to the "Al-Amn al-Sha'abi" ("popular
security" forces or party militia) controlled by Minister of
Finance Awad Al Jaz. He expressed fear that these groups
would carry out targeted attacks on behalf of the government,
which the government would attempt to pass off as reflecting
the righteous anger of the people. He noted that he was
considering traveling to Cairo until the situation stabilizes
following the ICC announcement, expected in late January. End
Summary.


2. (C) On January 5, CDA Fernandez met DUP Deputy Chairman
Ali Mahmoud Hassanein at the latter's residence in Omdurman.
Hassanein, a lawyer by profession, is well-known in Sudan for
his vocal support of the ICC on international legal grounds;
he asserts that Sudan must cooperate with the ICC because it
is bound unconditionally by its signing of the 2006 Darfur
Peace Agreement to accept all UN Security Council agreements
(in his view at least.) He noted that the DPA was approved
unanimously by Sudan's National Assembly and that document's
preamble asserts that Sudan will abide by all UNSC
resolutions on Darfur (which would include the 2005 UNSCR
1593 authorizing the ICC to look into Darfur human rights
violations). Hassanein has been vocal in his support not only
in Sudan, but also during speaking tours in Paris and London,
where he has met with government officials. He stated that
unbeknownst to him, his trip to Paris in October 2008
coincided with the visit of senior NCP officials Ali Osman
Taha, Nafie Ali Nafie and Salah Ghosh. After French officials
informed the trio that they would not support a postponement
of the indictment of President Bashir, Hassanein said he
believes that these senior GOS officials told President
Bashir that "Ali Mahmoud (Hassanein) spoiled our visit." The
President allegedly remarked that "Hassanein is chasing me
inside and outside Sudan." Following his trip to Europe,
Hassanein stated that he traveled to Egypt for meetings and
left for Hajj immediately after returning to Sudan, for fear
of reprisal.


3. (C) Hassanein did not have to wait long. He stated that on
December 29, a NISS officer accompanied by five soldiers
confronted him and escorted him to a NISS facility in the
Khartoum suburb of Bahri. There he was told that he had been
arrested at the instruction of President Bashir and NISS head
Salah Ghosh. He was subsequently questioned repeatedly about
his position on the ICC. Hassanein stated that he refused to
back down from his support of the institution. "I asserted
that Bashir must resign the very day he is indicted,
otherwise it will plunge the nation into chaos," he said,
recalling President George W. Bush's ultimatum to Saddam
Hussein and his sons to leave the country within 48 hours.
"Let us not repeat the mistakes of Saddam." After
approximately ten hours in detention, he was escorted to NISS
headquarters in Khartoum. There, Hassanein said that NISS
Deputy Mohammed Atta lambasted him with a hostile rant,
shouting that "we came to power by the way of the gun, we
rule by the gun" and "we'll kill you if you stand in the way
of Bashir." When asked by Atta for his reaction, Hassanein
stated that he simply acknowledged that he heard what was
said to him and had nothing more to say. On his way out, he
was warned ominously that this was "the last time" he would
be summoned by NISS.


4. (C) During our meeting with him, Hassanein expressed great
concern as to how the NCP would react upon the issuance of
the ICC arrest warrant. He stated that he had heard rumors
that over the past ten days, the NCP has distributed arms to
"Al- Amn Al-Sha'abi"--"popular security" forces--in every
neighborhood. "These are organs of the state, but not
officially," he said. "They will try to deceive the world by
saying that it's the righteous anger of the people that
cannot be controlled." When asked by CDA Fernandez who
commanded the popular defense forces, Hassanein responded
that Salah Ghosh was no doubt involved but that the "real
boss" was powerful Minister of Finance Awad Al Jaz. "I have
information they will attack, but I don't know the details,"

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he said. Hassanein expressed fear for his life, noting that
"I'm targeted because I speak my mind." He stated that some
members of his party have urged him to travel to Cairo when
the arrest warrant is announced, and the CDA agreed this is
an option that he should seriously consider. Hassanein added
that the current uproar on Gaza was "a gift for Bashir" and
could conflate with the ICC arrest issue, making the social
explosion in Sudan greater.


5. (C) Hassanein said there are currently three factions
within the NCP senior leadership vying for control of the
country. The first group is led by a weakened President
Bashir, whom Hassanein chastised for conduct unbecoming a
statesman, recalling Bashir's proclamation that western
powers were "underneath his shoes." A second group is led by
Ali Osman Taha, who Hassanein characterized as evil and
duplicitous. "Bashir is arrogant, but Taha is worse, a mean
and wicked man who will tell the west whatever he thinks it
wants to hear," he remarked. "If given the choice between
Bashir and Taha, the people would choose Bashir." A third
group is led by the state security apparatus, including Salah
Ghosh and Nafie Ali Nafie. Hassanein observed that "now Nafie
and Ghosh are in charge" of the country and also noted that
Nafie and Taha were not getting along. Still a fourth group
made up of senior SAF officers and unhappy with Bashir or
Taha, lurks in the wings.


6. (C) Comment: While regime insiders insist that the NCP
will carry on with a "business as usual" response to
issuance of an ICC arrest warrant for President Bashir, the
prospect of party militia carrying out targeted violence (or
being called upon to defend the regime from JEM or other
rebels who will very possibly be spurred on by the ICC
announcement) cannot be entirely discounted, at least in the
long run. Combined with outrage over the turmoil in Gaza and
the difficult economic situation, there is also the
possibility that violence could spiral out of control. All
evidence points to a regime preparing for either escalation
or conciliation, a decision it will try to make coldly and
deliberatively, if the circumstances allow.
FERNANDEZ