SPLM DEPUTY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT STRUGGLES TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 000149

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y - GARBLED TEXT

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A A/S CARTER AND AF/SPG
ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019
TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU
SUBJECT: SPLM DEPUTY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT STRUGGLES TO
SECURE NCP SUPPORT FOR KEY LAWS

Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: The SPLM's Deputy Speaker of Parliament
outlined his party's struggles in Parliament to win
concessions from the NCP on crucial laws related to National
Security and the 2011 South Sudan referendum. He expressed
fears that NCP MP's opposed to the referendum will use the
upcoming ICC announcement to implement laws that strengthen
the regime and increase its ability to manipulate the
referendum process in order to engineer an outcome favorable
to Khartoum. End Summary.


2. (C) Senior Representative for Sudan Shortley and CDA
Fernandez met with Atem Garang, SPLM Deputy Speaker of
Parliament, on February 3 at his office in the National
Assembly. Garang described key differences between the SPLM
and the NCP on a key National Security law currently under
debate. At present, the National Intelligence Service (NISS)
may arrest and hold anyone up to 60 days without charge, and
an additional 30 days with approval of NISS Chief Salah
Ghosh. The released individual can then be re-arrested the
next day, starting the clock again. Garang told Shortley that
the SPLM has pushed for language in the National Security law
to reduce the period of imprisonment without charge, but
encountered resistance from the NCP caucus, which argues that
this power is a necessary "preventive institution" to protect
the state from enemies and foreign plots. The SPLM has also
pressed for statutory approval of the selection of the NISS
Chief by the SPLM 1st Vice President and the appointment of
an SPLM official as NISS Deputy Director. Garang said that
these proposals have not made it past the NCP Parliamentary
block.


3. (C) Garang said the SPLM has also faced challenges from
the NCP in drafting a 2011 South Sudan referendum law. The
SPLM seeks to classify a Southerner, for the purposes of the
referendum, as an individual with at least one Southern
Sudanese parent. The SPLM's dispute with the NCP centers on
where a Southerner may vote. The SPLM seeks to require
Southerners to physically vote in South Sudan, outside of
NCP-control and under international monitoring. The NCP seeks
to allow Southerners to vote from anywhere in the world,
including north Sudan and the Diaspora. Garang expressed the
SPLM's fear that the NCP will use its control of northern
Sudan and Embassies abroad to manipulate the total and
artificially inflate the number of votes in favor of union.
The Deputy Speaker said that NCP members of Parliament seek
to wait until national elections to discuss the referendum
law, hoping to secure a large NCP majority that can write the
referendum law to favor union with the North. "If this
happens," warns Garang, "there will be chaos." Garang said
that he considers the Umma Party to be the wild card in
Parliament, as they have no vested interest in the CPA and
seek a way to get back in to power through a broader power
sharing agreement.


4. (C) The Deputy Speaker's doomsday scenario is that NCP
MP's may try to take advantage of the upcoming ICC
announcement to declare a state of emergency and cancel the
CPA (technically such a state would also require FVP Kiir of
the SPLM's approval as well). He offered a conciliatory tone
as head of the SPLM caucus, expressing Sudanese solidarity:
"If the indictment is issued, let us refuse it peacefully."
He called on both parties to "Stick to the Constitution, even
if the indictment comes."


5. (C) Comment: The success of the 2009 national elections,
2011 referendum, and development of a healthy political space
in Sudan is to a great degree contingent on the ability of
the SPLM National Assembly MP's to extract concessions from
the NCP on electoral and National Security laws. The outcome
of these key Parliamentary bills will be tied to the NCP's
choices in the aftermath of the ICC - however since the NCP
will be to a certain extent reliant on the SPLM to help
defend it from the ICC, the SPLM should be able to extract
some concessions from the NCP on both the laws that will
affect the elections and the referendum law.


6. (U) Senior Representative Shortley cleared this message
prior to his departure.
FERNANDEZ