VOTER REGISTRATION CONCLUDES IN SUDAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001455 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM KPKO SU SUBJECT: VOTER REGISTRATION CONCLUDES IN SUDAN REF: A) KHARTOUM 1323 B) KHARTOUM 1281 C) KHARTOUM 1165 D) KHARTOUM 1262 E) KHARTOUM 1172 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Voter registration concluded in Sudan on December ¶7. According to election advisors, and based on the National Elections Commission's (NEC) preliminary, unverified results, voter registration turned out significantly better than anyone might have expected, although problems were evident, including allegations of fraud. Voter registration recovered from a slow start after political parties ramped-up activities and voter education got fully underway. The broad and generally peaceful voter registration process has raised expectations higher for potentially-credible April 2010 elections. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) On November 23, the NEC announced a seven-day voter registration extension from November 30 to December 7 to promote greater participation and to make up for registration delays in some areas. Despite a slow start(ref B) throughout Sudan, and especially in the South, the NEC claims that approximately 16,246,486 voters turned out to register, which would be 80% of the eligible voter population as determined by the 2007 national census. Election advisors were impressed by the high-turnout, but concerned about the authenticity of the reported registration numbers. -------------- CHALLENGES IN THE SOUTH -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The slow start in the South was mostly due to logistical issues, including lack of registration materials and transportation. Poor voter education especially plagued the South. Inadequate political will of the Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS) and southern political parties also hindered voter education about registration. Observers from the U.S. Consulate in Juba heard from State Elections High Committee officials in Juba, Torit, Yambio and Bor. They noted their work was hindered by communication issues with the NEC, delayed financial transfers and resource and staffing shortages that delayed the registration process in some locations. (ref A) -------------- REGISTRATION FIGURES RAISE DOUBTS -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Based on official, but unverified, NEC-released figures following the end of voter registration, the registration numbers in Sudan showed marked and unexpected improvements in the final weeks of the registration period. In Southern Sudan, election advisors attribute at least some of this upsurge to the deployment of GOSS officials from all branches of the government to their home constituencies across the South. The latter led a massive registration drive that began in late November and lasted until the rolls were closed on December 7. Suspiciously, however, final registration numbers in five southern states and Southern Kordofan actually exceeded 100 percent of eligible voters (as calculated using 2007 census data.) ¶5. (SBU) There are several possible explanations for this discrepancy: GOSS officials, including President Kiir, argue that it indicates undercounting during the disputed national census of 2007; some election advisors suggest that it points to registration fraud; and yet others suggest that such a discrepancy is the result of population movement, including the return of displaced persons, which may have occurred since the census. It is impossible to know exactly the reason for registration numbers exceeding 100% of eligible voters in these states as data will not be available to be analyzed due to the NEC's refusal to conduct a voter roll audit. -------------- HEAVY SECURITY FOR DARFUR REGISTRATION -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Voter registration in Darfur took place with few security incidents and moderate turnout according to domestic and international observer reporting. The Carter Center reports that not all Internally Displaced People's (IDP) camps could be reached by the State Election High Committees. IDP participation was marginal due to their political disenfranchisement and calls for an electoral boycott by many IDP leaders (ref E). According to domestic and international election observers, there was a very heavy security presence at all registration sites in Darfur. While registration was largely peaceful in Darfur, observers believe such an intense presence of National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for security was not conducive to an environment for a free and fair election in Darfur. KHARTOUM 00001455 002 OF 002 -------------- OBSERVERS NOTE PEACEFUL REGISTRATION PROCESS -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Domestic and international observers did not report intimidation, violence or obvious fraud at and around registration centers. The Carter Center notes in its statement that "Security forces played a generally positive role in ensuring the security of registration centers." Only two incidents of violence were reported: an assassination attempt on the GOSS Minister of Agriculture and Forestry and a gun fight between the Southern Sudan Police Service (SSPS) and the Sudanese People's Liberation Army (SPLA) while the SSPS was transporting voter registration materials. (ref A) ¶8. (SBU) The following are the state-by-state voter registration figures released by the NEC. Percentages are based on census estimates of eligible voters per state. These figures have not been independently verified, and elections experts have expressed concern about the accuracy of the figures countrywide: --Northern Sudan -Blue Nile (Ed Damazin) 350,618 (87 percent) -Northern Kordofan (El Obeid) 900,573 (62 percent) -Southern Kordofan (Kadugli) 749,232 (112 percent) -Al Gezira State (Wad Medani) 1,543,340 (79 percent) -Northern State (Dongola) 269,538 (64 percent) -Al-Gadarif (Gedaref) 495,520 (75 percent) -Khartoum (Khartoum) 1,932,783 (59 percent) -White Nile (Rabak) 640,835 (70 percent) -Sinnar State (Singa) 516,566 (78 percent) -Kassala State (Kassala) 755,111 (78 percent) -River Nile (Ed Damer) 435,659 (65 percent) -Red Sea (Port Sudan) 687,181 (86 percent) -Western Darfur (El Genina) 424,958 (69 percent) -Southern Darfur (Nyala) 1,318,858 (67 percent) -Northern Darfur (El Fasher) 685,879 (65 percent) --Total Northern Sudan 11,706,651 (71 percent) --Southern Sudan -Upper Nile (Malakal) 416,471 (85 percent) -Jonglei (Bor) 595,901 (86 percent) -Alwihda-Unity (Bentiu) 522,196 (190 percent) -Warrap (Kwajoc) 669,053 (140 percent) -Western Bahar Al-Gazal (Wau) 249,848 (140 percent) -Northern Bahar Al-Gazal (Aweil)451,789 (129 percent) -Albuhirat-Lakes (Rumbek) 386,621 (107 percent) -Western Equatoria (Yambio) 322,801 (92 percent) -Central Equatoria (Juba) 532,031 (91 percent) -Eastern Equatoria (Torit) 393,124 (87 percent) --Total Southern Sudan 4,539,835 (108 percent) -Total Registrations In Sudan 16,246,486 (79 percent) -Total Out of Country Voter Registration 104,345 --Grand Total 16,350,831 ¶9. (SBU) COMMENT: There is agreemenbt among both domestic and international election advisors and observers that the registration process went better than anyone had expected and produced a surprisingly high turnout. Nevertheless, the process revealed serious problems. For example, registration did not allow equal access throughout the country for eligible voters to register and take part in the political process. Verification of final voter registration numbers is necessary to better gauge the overall success of the process, but the NEC has refused to allow a donor audit of the voter rolls. Despite these shortcomings, the voter registration process has set the stage for potentially-credible April 2010 elections in Sudan. END COMMENT ASQUINO