NCP APPROVES SOUTHERN SUDAN REFERENDUM LAW WITHOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001447 SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO SU SUBJECT: NCP APPROVES SOUTHERN SUDAN REFERENDUM LAW WITHOUT SPLM REF: KHARTOUM 1445 Classified By: A/CDA Mark L. Asquino for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On December 22, the National Congress Party (NCP) introduced controversial amendments to the Southern Sudan Referendum Law and unilaterally passed it despite the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) walking out of the session. Dr. Ghazi Sallahuddin, an NCP Presidential Advisor, stated that the NCP is trying to diffuse the situation through continued dialogue with the SPLM. Restraint from both parties will be necessary to solve a conflict that may once again push implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) to the brink. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) On December 22, the NCP introduced and passed, through its "mechanical majority", two controversial amendments to the Southern Sudan Referendum Law. One amendment to Article 27 broadened the definition of who is entitled to vote in the referendum as a Southerner long resident in the north. The amendment removed language that required that any Southerner now resident in the north who has not lived in the South since independence in 1956 will be required to return to his/her place of origin in the south, prove southern lineage and then register there. Such Southerners would also be required to return to the south again to vote on the referendum, rather than doing so from a voting facility in the north. The SPLM fears that removing this requirement will open up the Referendum to fraud through allowing large numbers of northern residents, with only tenuous ties to the south, to claim they are "Southerners" entitled to vote. The SPLM cites the difficulty of validating the lineage of Southerners residing in the north if such citizens have not lived in the south since independence. A second amendment to Article 67 proposed reaching agreement on post-2011 issues such as wealth sharing and the rights of citizenship as a pre-condition for holding the referendum. According to Derek Plumbley, Chairman of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission, the "North could use the need for resolution of Post 2011 arrangements to delay the referendum indefinitely. Such conditionally linking the referendum with prior resolution of post-2011 arrangements has always been an SPLM red-line. Plumbley saw it as a far more serious area of disagreement than the NPC amendment on northern residents. ¶3. (C) According to Remy Oller, SPLM Deputy Speaker of the Council of States, once the amendments were proposed, the SPLM asked the NCP to postpone voting and proposed NCP/SPLM negotiations on the amendments. The NCP refused discussions according to the SPLM. The SPLM then walked out of the Assembly. The Eastern Front left with the SPLM, as well as a few Southern NCP members. Most opposition parties stayed. The NCP proceeded to pass the amendments and approve the Referendum Law. The law now awaits Presidential approval. President Omar Al Bashir is currently out of the country on a three-day visit to Mauritania. ¶4. (C) During a December 23 telcon with the Acting CDA, NCP Presidential Advisor Dr. Ghazi Sallahudin confirmed that the areas of disagreement were on the new language in these two articles. Ghazi claimed that the SPLM had agreed to the language change in Article 27 during a December 20 meeting of the Assembly's legal committee. He added that SPLM Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, Atem Garang, had raised no objections to revisions in Article 27 through the law,s first two readings, only to challenge them during the third and final reading, based on what Ghazi said had been instructions from Juba. Ghazi claimed that the changes were needed, as the article as written was "unconstitutional." (NOTE: Just a day earlier the NCP passed the National Security Law, considered unconstitutional by the SPLM and opposition parties as it allows the National Intelligence and Security Service powers of arrest, detention, search and seizure. END NOTE) (reftel) Ghazi argued that the SPLM position on Article 27 made Southerners not residing in the South since January 1, 1956 "second class citizens" by forcing them to first go to the South to register and then return there again to vote. Ghazi claimed that even Southerners in this category who are now resident in the U.S. would be forced to return to Sudan to register and vote. Ghazi was vague on NCP language linking post-2011 issues. While he said that changes to Article 67 were essential to conduct the Referendum, he did not specify exactly why this was necessary. KHARTOUM 00001447 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Ghazi said that the NCP is trying to diffuse the situation by delaying discussion of the Abyei Referendum Law and the Blue Nile and South Kordofan Popular Consultations Law until Monday, December 28 (NOTE: According to the SPLM, the NCP already introduced controversial amendments to the Abyei Referendum Law, such as allowing the predominately Northern Misseriya migratory tribe to vote in the referendum, an issue which is yet another SPLM "red-line". END NOTE). The Office of the Speaker of the National Assembly also confirmed that the National Assembly will extend its session from December 23 to December 31. According to Oller, an SPLM negotiating team headed by GoSS Vice President Riek Machar will meet with Second Vice President Ali Osman Taha soon but neither Machar's office nor Ghazi could confirm a date or time. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: The NCP and SPLM are once again engaged in a dangerous game of CPA brinkmanship. After the two sides had reached what appeared to be final agreement earlier this month on language in the Southern Referendum, Abyei Referendum and Blue Nile/South Kordofan Popular Consultation laws, each party is now pointing the finger at the other as responsible for the latest crisis. SPLM officials assure the Embassy that they will not stage demonstrations in the near future over this impasse. The situation is fluid as the parties continue to justify their positions in the media and issue public statements while quietly engaging in private to find a solution. END COMMENT. ASQUINO