NCP AND SPLM BREAK THE IMPASSE BUT NOT THE CYCLE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001400 SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PINS PREL SU SUBJECT: NCP AND SPLM BREAK THE IMPASSE BUT NOT THE CYCLE; PUBLIC PROTEST CONTINUES REF: A) KHARTOUM 1359 B) KHARTOUM 1376 C) KHARTOUM 1378 Classified By: CDA Robert Whitehead, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Three days of talks between Government of National Unity (GoNU) President Al-Bashir and GoNU First Vice President (and Government of Southern Sudan (GoSS)) President Salva Kiir and their respective delegations broke through on December 13, resolving three of five outstanding issues to some degree. The parties kicked two other issues down the road, probably to re-emerge at a future date. Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Ministers in the GoNU returned to the Council of Ministers for an December 13 evening session in which they tabled the agreed points, and SPLM parliamentarians were reportedly ready to return to the National Assembly on December 14 to debate/act upon the partial package. The last-minute retreat from the brink forestalled a growing crisis and should free up somewhat implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between the North and South, but we see further crises ahead. On December 14 Sudanese security forces deployed to block and break up by force a second attempted demonstration at the National Assembly in Omdurman. Police have arrested a number of mostly northern political opposition figures. End summary. -------------- MOVING TALKS TO THE TOP -------------- ¶2. (C) Presidential level negotiations on December 13 between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the SPLM broke the seven week impasse over five CPA issues, thus freeing up CPA implementation toward 2010 national elections and the 2011 Southern/Abyei Referenda in advance of the visit of US. Special Envoy Gration. The Council of Ministers tabled the Southern Sudan Referendum, the Abyei Referendum, and the Popular Consultations Bills in a special session on the evening of December 13, and these bills were expected to move to the GNU National Assembly on December 14 for fast-track approval. With further negotiations scheduled for later this week, SPLM ministers in the GoNU are back at work, and SPLM members of the National Assembly will reportedly end the boycott that began October 20. -------------- SOME THINGS MOVE AHEAD -------------- ¶3. (C) One significant breakthrough led to an agreement on the Southern Sudan Referendum Bill. Both sides accepted a 60 percent threshold turnout for registered voters to validate a vote for separation, and a simple majority vote by those participating to choose either separation or continued unity. A second breakthrough freed up the Popular Consultations Bill for Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan States. As now proposed, the draft law provides for the establishment of committees, appointed by the state legislative councils in both states, to organize popular consultations for two weeks in full cooperation with local media, the general public, and international donors. Following the completion of the consultations, the state committees will report their recommendations to the respective legislative councils, who should in turn endorse the recommendations. The two state governments will be responsible for resolving any dispute between the two states, and any local legislative disapproval of the recommendations must be resolved in the national Presidency. Once the Presidency endorses the recommendations of the committees, the Presidency will issue these by decree. The bill does not clearly address what would follow should the Presidency rejects the recommendations, a formula for future controversy. -------------- SOME THINGS MOVE SIDEWAYS -------------- ¶4. (C) The parties kicked the difficult Abyei issue further down the road by agreeing to the formation of a 9-person Abyei Referendum Committee with a single chairman who must be jointly endorsed by both Al-Bashir and Kiir. The other members of the committee will be split equally between the NCP and SPLM. As stipulated in the CPA, the committee -- when it is formed -- will be responsible for adjudicating the thorny issue of who besides the Ngok Dinka people are legitimate residents of Abyei and thus eligible to KHARTOUM 00001400 002 OF 002 participate in the 2011 referendum on Abyei self-determination. According to SPLM negotiators, the bill makes no specific mention of the Misseriya Arabs, who also lay claim to land and other rights in the area. -------------- SOME THINGS UNMOVED -------------- ¶5. (C) A second troublesome issue, the use of the 2008 census to establish electoral constituencies, was also not resolved. Instead, the parties formed another committee to determine the apportionment of additional seats, above the 21.4 percent based on the census results, to the South and possibly three SPLM-dominated areas in the North: the Nuba Mountains, Blue Nile State and Abyei. The parties also did not come to an agreement on the language for the controversial National Security Act, which has apparently been set aside for a subsequent session of the National Assembly. And finally, the NCP and SPLM agreed to form yet another joint committee to handle democratic reform of other laws necessary to permit full CPA implementation, including the Trade Union Act and the Labor Law, inter alia. -------------- BUT PUBLIC PROTESTS PERSIST -------------- ¶6. (C) After discussions between SPLM officials and the top leaders of northern opposition parties in the Juba Alliancelate in the evening of December 13, the SPLM told us that planned public demonstrations for December 14 would probably not take place, since the demonstrations were initially organized to force the NCP into action on the stalled legislation. Despite public announcement of the December 13 agreement and the subsequent Council of Ministers meeting, an early-morning text message on December 14 called on opposition supporters to assemble at the National Assembly for a follow-on to the disrupted march of a week earlier. By late morning Sudanese security forces had again broken up the demonstration and arrested at least 37 opposition leaders, and reportedly unleashed considerable force against others. Additional details follow septel. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) We are satisfied that the NCP and SPLM have defused the immediate crisis and averted a break up of their tenuous partnership in the GoNU, but they have not yet adequately addressed some of the difficult underlying issues. Abyei residency, the arrest/detention language in the National Security Act and the use of the 2008 census must be more clearly resolved to avoid further standoffs ahead. The decision of the constituent members of the Juba Alliance to again challenge the NCP in the streets is somewhat perplexing following progress on some of the sticking points, and the NCP's agreement to discuss others. Our conversations with northern opposition leaders indicate that they see public unrest as their best chance to make inroads against the entrenched NCP in Khartoum. The question is open as to whether the SPLM will continue to join the charge. WHITEHEAD