NORTH AND SOUTH DEADLOCKED ON ABYEI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001342 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/02/2019 TAGS: KDEM PBTS PGOV PREL SU SUBJECT: NORTH AND SOUTH DEADLOCKED ON ABYEI REF: A. A0 KHARTOUM 1316 ¶B. B) KHARTOUM 1273 Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD, FOR REASONS 1.4 ( B),(D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Throughout U.S. Special Envoy (SE) to Sudan General Scott Gration's November 18-22 meetings in Khartoum, the National Congress Party (NCP) and Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) remained at an impasse over the definition of a resident of Abyei in the Abyei Referendum Bill. Despite general agreement on other crucial legislation -- to include the Southern Sudan Referendum Law, National Security Law, and the Blue Nile and South Kordofan State Popular Consultation Law -- the SPLM remains adamant that nomadic tribes such as the Misseriya are not residents of Abyei and therefore do not have the right to vote in the January 2011 Abyei referendum on self determination. For its part, the NCP insists that banning the nomads from the vote would disenfranchise them as second class citizens. Passage of the legislation prior to the scheduled (but by no means certain) adjournment of the National Assembly on December 15 is required for preparations for the referenda in both the South and Abyei to be completed in time. In a chance meeting, the Governor of South Kordofan shared hisQerspective on the difficulty of defining criteria for Abyei residency. End Summary. -------------- NCP CAUTIONS SPLM OVER DELAYS -------------- ¶2. (C) While in Khartoum November 18-19 and 22, Special Envoy Gration met with the NCP and SPLM in a series of bilateral meetings to discuss outstanding issues regarding the census and elections and the Abyei Referendum in CPA negotiations. Government of National Unity (GoNU) Presidential Advisor Ghazi Salahuddin gave an overview of discussions that had taken place between Dr. Riek Machar of the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) and First Vice President Ali Osman Taha since General Gration's late November visit (reftel). Ghazi confirmed that three main points continued to hinder agreement on outstanding legislation: the definition of a resident of Abyei, the turn-out requirement for the Southern Sudan referendum law, and SPLM acceptance of the 2008 census as the basis for the April 2010 elections. According to Ghazi, the NCP and SPLM are still wed to the notions of a five-part "package deal" consisting of the National Security Law, procedural Southern Sudan Referendum law, Blue Nile and South Kordofan State Popular Consultation Law, Abyei Referendum Law, and SPLM acceptance of the Census. On November 18 he remained optimistic about finding a solution to outstanding issues but nonetheless cautioned that any SPLM attempt to deliberately draw out the process would have negative consequences. ¶3. (C) In SE Gration's meetings with GOSS Vice President Riek Machar and his negotiating team, the topic of Abyei residency (for the purpose of participating in the Abyei referendum) dominated the talks. SPLM Secretary General Pagan Amum and GNU Foreign Minister Deng Alor hewed to a hard line, insisting that the SPLM would wait out the NCP on the definition of Abyei residency. Amum and Alor contended that only Ngok Dinka and a few long-time "other" Sudanese in Abyei qualify as residents. They argued that few Misseriya qualify for residency in Abyei because they pass through for only a few months each year during annual nomadic migrations. Pagan Amum remarked that "we can wait them out, the NCP will give in if we wait long enough." The eternally optimistic Machar nonetheless remained confident that the SPLM would come to agreement on other outstanding issues once Abyei was resolved. -------------- SOUTH KORDOFAN GOVERNOR OFFERS ADVICE -------------- ¶4. (C) During a chance encounter in the waiting room at the Council of Ministers, South Kordofan State Governor Ahmed Haroun shared his perspective on the Abyei issue with members of the US delegation. He declared that devising a political solution to Abyei in either Khartoum or Juba would be difficult, and suggested leaving the decision on residency to the Abyei Referendum Commission that is stipulated in the Abyei Protocol of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Haroun KHARTOUM 00001342 002 OF 002 said it is imperative for both the NCP and SPLM to engage in pro-active advocacy on the ground in the Abyei region to quell rumors that border demarcation will hinder movement of people and livestock. (Note. Haroun is widely regarded as the most effective individual on either side in defusing tension among the Misseriya and Dinka populations in South Kordofan. End note.) He acknowledged the difficulties facing the border demarcation technical committee and said he is working to inform the nomadic tribes about the actual meaning of the Abyei Border Decision. Haroun suggested some possible fixes that would allow demarcation to proceed, and emphasized again that the key message to the Misseriya tribe must be that border demarcation does not mean barring them from traditional migration corridors south or rescinding watering and grazing rights. Haroun stressed that for their part the Ngok Dinka resident in Abyei must accept the unmolested passage of the Misseriya tribes during the ongoing southward migration. ¶5. (C) Comment: Abyei is the shoal upon which the latest round of NCP/SPLM talks has foundered, and there is equal blame for hard-line elements from both sides. At one point the SPLM and NCP agreed to accept a four-part package with Abyei discussions to follow, but the SPLM pulled back and instead offered another formula to resolve the definition of residency (in Ngok favor) by using figures from the same 2008 census that the SPLM had theretofore declined to accept. On November 22, the NCP declined to continue discussing Abyei with the SPLM, although NCP policymakers were still consulting among themselves on the latest proposal for criteria that might be used to define who could and could not qualify as a resident of Abyei for the purposes of the referendum. Both sides were in full agreement that solutions to the other four outstanding issues are within easy reach. It has come down to a matter of political will. End comment. WHITEHEAD