SUDAN: 49th Plenary of the AEC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KHARTOUM 001272 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MARR KDEM SU SUBJECT: SUDAN: 49th Plenary of the AEC ¶1. (U) Summary: The November 8, 49th Plenary of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) tackled the following issues: preparations for upcoming elections and referendum, post referendum arrangements, voter registration and border demarcation problems in Abyei. State Minister at the Ministry of Energy and Mining, Angelina Teny represented the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) and Ambassador Hassan Adam Omer represented the National Congress Party (NCP). U.S. Charge d'Affaires (CDA) Robert Whitehead gave a brief readout of U.S. Special Envoy (SE) Scott Gration's recent visit to Sudan, in which he met jointly with the SPLM and NCP and deferred to the NCP and SPLM delegations for updates in progress in negotiations following the SE's departure. According to Teny, the parties have come to terms on overcoming remaining obstacles by forming teams to tackle issues on a timeline, which in itself is an achievement. With the April 2010 presidential elections only five months away and the 2011 referendum in the South fast approaching, there was growing concern among AEC members that not enough time remains to organize free and fair votes. ONE participant reported that a group of Sudanese intellectuals is calling for an extension of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement's transitional period, to which AEC Chairman Sir Derek Plumbly rejoined that the most important strategy in the remaining months is to speed up CPA implementation, not extend it. The next plenary is scheduled for December 8. End Summary -------------- -------------- Delegates Concerned with Shrinking Elections Timelines -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) Preparations for Sudan's 2010 Presidential elections and 2011 referendum generated expressions of concern among the delegates of the Assessment and Evaluation Commission (AEC) due to spiraling problems with voter registration; continued inter-ethnic fighting in the South; the lack of agreement between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) on the disputed census, referendum turnout requirements and the SPLM boycott of Parliament over key pieces of election-related legislation (including the referendum bill) not yet tabled. In its 49th Plenary Session on November 8, the representatives of countries and multilateral groups that comprise the AEC encouraged the parties to tackle the core issues in preparation for the elections, warning that time is not on their side. -------------- Teny - Reviewing U.S. Recommendations -------------- ¶3. (U) Angelina Teny, SPLM State Minister of Energy and Mining of the Government of National Unity (GONU),said the SPLM is committed to proceed with the elections and will continue to work to solve the census issue. She said the SPLM sent a paper to the NCP on this issue and awaits a response. Teny said that the two parties agreed that disputed points should be handled as a "package," particularly those that share similar timelines. AEC Chairman, Sir Derek Plumbly, suggested an ideal package consisting of popular consultations, the referendum, and Abyei residency. Teny took positive note of the NCP's decision to withdraw the National Security Bill from Parliament. She said the parties have agreed to use the definition as per the CPA for the Abyei Referendum Bill so that the criteria for a resident will be defined by the Abyei Referendum Commission. As such, the parties would accept the use of precise terms of the Abyei Protocol. Among other details, the parties continue to debate is whether former Abyei residents now outside of Abyei should be allowed to vote. Teny described two census proposals on which the parties are negotiating. The NCP favors amendment of the Constitution while the SPLM wants to amend the electoral law to provide the South larger legislative representation. Teny said the SPLM is also reviewing a U.S. proposed compromise on turnout requirements. -------------- UNMIS Disagrees with Package Idea -------------- ¶4. (U) UNMIS representative Muin Shrein commended the efforts of the parties for negotiating the details of the CPA; nonetheless, the UNMIS representative warned consolidating the issues could result in slowing down the process. He appealed to the parties to make necessary concessions to move forward, as they risk sending the wrong message to the international community, which wants to see progress. Teny responded that things are moving forward and disagreed that a "package" strategy would complicate the issue. She contended the parties have agreed to the majority of disputed issues and the teams are making significant joint efforts. The new strategy, she said, was an attempt to meet deadlines. Teny said the SPLM has clearly committed itself to elections and will work to find KHARTOUM 00001272 002.2 OF 003 a solution to the census issue. She declared, "One way or another, an agreement will go forward." -------------- Abyei Concerns -------------- ¶5. (U) Netherlands Ambassador Norbert Braakhuis, who chairs the Three Areas Working Group, expressed concern that voter registration in Abyei would fail because only a single registration team was in place. He noted that the imminent migration of Misseriya nomads into Abyei and beyond could raise tensions. A November 5 meeting between the five concerned state governors had not come off due to the absence of the governors from Unity and South Darfur states. He decried about the lack of border demarcation in Abyei due to logistic and security shortfalls. The GOS had provided helicopter support to the technical Demarcation Committee, which had allowed them to overfly the border area that remains too wet to reach by land. Braakhuis continued, however, that the Oversight Commission had still not coalesced and that the cohesion of the Joint Integrated Unit (JIU) in Abyei was such that the SPLM commissioners were not convinced that it could provide them adequate protection against Misseriya elements that did not want the demarcation to take place. The SPLM commissioners had written a letter to the Presidency asking for guidance to proceed and requesting that the Presidency provide sufficient security to let the demarcation proceed. ¶6. (U) Braakhuis pointed out that UNMIS could also deploy its forces stationed in Abyei to provide protection, setting off a skirmish with the UNMIS representative. UNMIS poloff Shrein countered that UNMIS wanted to be more pro-active but had no mandate from the UN Security Council to do so. Braakhuis shot back that UNMIS, which has the ability to move around the area, could also do more to report back to the AEC what is happening on the ground instead of forcing those outside the area to rely on rumor and inaccurate press reports for information. The UNMIS representative repeated that UNMIS is doing what it can and that it was "unfair" to insist that UNMIS do border demarcation. He repeated, "We are doing what we can with the Misseriya and Dinka. -------------- Teny Piles On -------------- ¶7. (U) State Minister Teny said that the SPLM was ready as a party to join the NCP in a unified message that all parties must accept the results of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) and send a clear message to the Misseriya People that there is no alternative to the Misseriya and Dinka working together. She criticized the NCP for what she called an "unfortunate lukewarm" response to the Abyei border demarcation issue. Plumbly said the AEC Coordinator and UNMIS must stay in touch and that the Presidency should respond to the Committee by taking steps to ensure security. He said that NCP Minister Abdul Kadir, who could not attend the meeting, agreed to help. Plumbly chided Ambassador Hassan, who admitted he had not been briefed on the issues under discussion, and said that the NCP had earlier assured Plumbly they would be fully represented. -------------- AEC Chairman Says CPA Timeframe is Set -------------- ¶8. (U) Plumbly said that he recently met with the parties to encourage action in conjunction with the U.S. leadership on the trilateral negotiations. He referenced his recent meeting with Sudanese intellectuals who expressed grave concerns about the referendum and has proposed to extend the interim period of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, beyond in 2011. The Chairman countered that the dates of the CPA are set and the most important thing now is to speed up implementation, not look to postponement. -------------- Workshops to Fuel Post 2011 Discussions -------------- ¶9. (U) The United Kingdom raised the urgency of settling post 2011 issues. UK Ambassador Marsden noted that Chatham House had organized workshops in both Juba and Khartoum, and the feedback had been positive. They are currently planning a third workshop in December that they hope will promote further discussions. UNMIS is also conducting a seminar in Juba according to its representative who said UNMIS does not want to duplicate efforts. He warned that there must be a better coordinating mechanism for the work to be optimally beneficial. U.S. Charge' said the United States agrees on the need to reduce the uncertainties of the post-2011 period, KHARTOUM 00001272 003 OF 003 whatever the outcome of the referendum. He noted that the parties have already identified nine distinct post referendum issues that must be resolved. -------------- Working Group Updates -------------- ¶10. (U) The Three Areas Working Group trip has been postponed but Braakhuis will travel to Muglad with the Dutch Cooperation Minister the week of November 16. The October AEC visit to Blue Nile State report was circulated by the Three Areas coordinator. The AEC Security Working Group will visit Juba, Upper Nile and Malakal November 10-13 to assess security conditions. ¶11. (SBU) Comment: Minister Teny and Ambassador Omer were a mismatch in this plenary. Teny was up to date on the salient issues in SPLM/NCP talks, while Ambassador Hassan was basically warming the seat. Presidential Advisor, Idris, who usually presents the NCP side of the discussion, did not attend for purported health-related reasons. ¶12. (SBU) Comment Continued: The UNMIS representative made a valid point about the need to coordinate who will be involved in settling post-referendum issues. In addition to UNMIS, Chatham House, the AEC, and to some degree the U.S.-led trilateral talks, South Africa's Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS) and another European group are rumored to be in the chase. Absent coordination, we risk another round of forum shopping such as those that have historically plagued Darfur rebel unification efforts. WHITEHEAD