PARTY TALKS CONTINUE WITH SHORT DEADLINE SET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001271 SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LELLIS DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2019 TAGS: KDEM PGOV PREL SU SUBJECT: PARTY TALKS CONTINUE WITH SHORT DEADLINE SET Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES ROBERT E. WHITEHEAD, FOR REASONS 1.4 ( B),(D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During a November 9 meeting with Poloff, Remy Oller, Sudanese People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) Deputy Speaker of the Council of States, said the National Congress Party (NCP) and SPLM were still engaged in talks initiated by the US. Special Envoy on outstanding Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) issues including the national security law, the referendum law, popular consultation law, the definition of a resident of Abyei and completion of North-South border demarcation. Oller said Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) Vice President Riek Machar had assured SPLM legislators that agreement on these issues would be reached within 48 hours (by November 10). If agreement is not reached, Oller said, SPLM legislators would continue their boycott of the National Assembly indefinitely. Oller claimed that the NCP is unwilling to allow the United States to claim a "win" from any deals struck by the parties (Note: Embassy cannot confirm this allegation, which would represent a reversal of the NCP's prior position. End Note) and lamented the lack of SPLM preparation for elections. End Summary -------------- NCP-SPLM DISCUSSIONS CONTINUE -------------- ¶2. (C) On November 9, poloff met with Remy Oller, SPLM Deputy Speaker of the Council of States (Note: The Council of States is the upper house of Sudan's bicameral National Assembly. End Note) and member of the SPLM National Capitol Group of Advisors. Oller stated that on November 7 and November 8, two teams composed of nine representatives each from the NCP and the SPLM continued the discussions initiated by US. Special Envoy to Sudan Gration. The talks sought to resolve outstanding CPA issues related to the national security law, the referendum law, popular consultation law, the definition of a resident of Abyei and completion of North-South border demarcation. According to Oller, the NCP said it would withdraw the National Security Law, which had already passed second reading in the National Assembly. (Note: At the November 8 Assessment and Evaluation Committee (AEC) meeting, State Minister for Energy and Mines, Angelina Teny, also told Charg that the NCP had withdrawn the national security law from consideration by the entire assembly. End Note) -------------- -------------- PROGRESS ON POPULAR CONSULTATIONS, BORDER DEMARCATION -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) According to Oller, on November 8, the NCP and SPLM achieved minor breakthroughs on two issues. First, they agreed to pass a national law governing Blue Nile and South Kordofan State popular consultations. Details of the law are still to be worked out, Oller said. In addition, the parties received a commitment from the North-South Ad Hoc Border Committee to finish demarcating the border and submit a report to the parties on November 23. Once this report is submitted, the parties will begin work to resolve contested areas of the border, Oller told poloff. The parties also agreed to halt all expressions of hostility between the two parties in the media, Oller said. -------------- WALKOUT COULD CONTINUE AFTER 48 HOURS -------------- ¶4. (C) According to Oller, Atem Garang, SPLM Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly and Oller approached Vice President Riek Machar to insist that all SPLM National Assembly members and Council of States Members continue their boycott of National Assembly proceedings in protest of NCP delaying tactics and depart for Juba to mobilize voters for voter registration. (Note: The SPLM began the boycott on October 19 after the Assembly's NCP leadership failed to agree on a timetable for consideration of key legislation. End Note) Machar assured Garang and Oller that an agreement would be reached within 48 hours (November 10) on the outstanding issues. Oller said he told Machar that if agreement is not reached within 48 hours, SPLM legislators will return to Juba and stay there indefinitely. If an agreement is reached, however, SPLM legislators will return to the National Assembly and Council of States on Monday, November 16, Oller KHARTOUM 00001271 002.2 OF 002 said. -------------- NCP WANTS TO EXCLUDE SPECIAL ENVOY? -------------- 5.(C) Oller told poloff he appreciates the Special Envoy's role in bringing the parties together, and his helpful mediation especially during the recent November visit. However, Oller claimed, the NCP has asked the SPLM to exclude the United States from further discussions on outstanding issues. Oller said he believes that the NCP does not want to see the Special Envoy have "a win", and may even avoid reaching agreement with the SPLM on certain issues so as to deny the Special Envoy both credit for arranging the deal and the increased influence that would result. (Note: Embassy has been unable to confirm this allegation. Moreover, if accurate, this would represent a reversal of previous NCP and SPLM positions. End Note) -------------- SPLM NOT READY FOR ELECTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) Oller told poloff that the SPLM is not ready for elections. Many SPLM members remain suspicious of the elections and still do not envision any kind of SPLM participation in the polls. Oller remarked, "I don't know what our political bureau has been doing down in Juba; they haven't been preparing for elections at all". According to Oller, the SPLM has begun to urge party members to register to vote; however, Oller is doubtful that many will participate. The SPLM needs to acknowledge the grievances that southerners have with the party including GOSS lack of ability to provide the most basic security and public services, Oller stated. "Why would southerners vote for the SPLM if they haven't been paid for three months and cannot eat?" Oller asked rhetorically. (Note: Oller is referring to salaries of public servants in many southern states that have reportedly gone unpaid for the last three months. End Note) Oller confirmed newspaper reports that the President of the Government of Southern Sudan, Salva Kiir, had declared a public holiday in the south from November 16 through November 20 so that public servants could return to their villages and mobilize voters to register. ¶7. (C) Comment: GOSS Presidential Affairs Minister Luka Biong, a participant in the talks, largely confirmed Oller's comments in a separate conversation with the Charge. He reported incremental progress on legislation for popular consultations and some narrowing of differences in the definition of Abyei residency, but the important census and referendum issues have not been raised. Biong said that the last session ended at 2:30 a.m. the morning of November 10 and will conclude later the same day, allowing SPLM participants to travel to Juba on November 11. He expressed doubt that all of the outstanding issues will be discussed, let alone resolved, by then. Both Biong and Machar have offered to provide a final readout before their departure. WHITEHEAD