U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY GRATION MEETS MUTRIFF SIDDIQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001239

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM MOPS SU
SUBJECT: U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY GRATION MEETS MUTRIFF SIDDIQ

Classified By: CDA Robert E. Whitehead for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. In a November 2 meeting with U.S. Special
Envoy (SE) to Sudan General Scott Gration, Mutriff Siddiq,
Government of Sudan (GoS) Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs,
welcomed the new U.S. Sudan policy as a step forward. Siddiq
said that the issues in Darfur were difficult but
surmountable. Siddiq was less optimistic about the situation
in the south and he questioned the resolve of the Sudan
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) to negotiate and
implement outstanding issues in the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA). Siddiq was emphatic that referendum terms
and post-referendum issues must be negotiated as a package.
It appears that post-referendum arrangements are a
deal-breaker for the GoS, and a referendum in the south will
have no chance of proceeding peacefully until at least some
of these issues are addressed. End Summary.

--------------
New USG Sudan Policy "a Step Forward"
--------------


2. (SBU) Siddiq said the new Sudan policy is "not up to our
ambitions," but that it is "a step forward." He said that
the U.S. goals in the plan are shared by the GoS, and in this
sense, the U.S. plan is what he would have written himself.
Siddiq said that the GoS is committed to moving forward and
if the GoS is supported by the United States in this process,
they will welcome it.

--------------
Situation in Darfur Surmountable
--------------


3. (C) Siddiq said that the situation in Darfur is not
benefiting the GoS. He said that the Sudan Armed Forces and
police are suffering significant casualties trying to
maintain stability in Darfur. He also said that most of the
carjackings in Darfur are committed by members of the Arab
tribes. This lawlessness is hurting the GoS, but outsiders
continue to view the Arab tribes as allies of the GoS. He
added, though, that the problems in Darfur are
"surmountable," while issues in the south are going in an
unpromising direction.

--------------
Why Riek Machar?
--------------


4. (C) Siddiq asked why, if the SPLM is interested in
negotiating a solution to outstanding CPA implementation
issues, they continue to send Riek Machar, Vice President of
the Government of Southern Sudan, as their negotiator?
Siddiq noted that twice Machar has reached agreement with his
negotiating partner GoS Vice-President Ali Osman Taha, and
twice the SPLM has rejected the resulting agreement. Siddiq
suggested that the SPLM send anyone else, even a radical SPLM
member such as Pagan Amum, as long as that person has a
mandate to reach a binding agreement.

-------------- --
Referendum and Post-referendum Issues a Package
-------------- --


5. (C) Siddiq reassured SE Gration that the Southern
referendum will be held in January 2011, but was emphatic
that referendum terms and post-referendum issues must be
negotiated as a package. Siddiq said that post-referendum
issues must be addressed prior to agreement on referendum
procedures because the SPLM could promise to negotiate these
post-referendum issues, and then simply refuse, or make
unreasonable demands. He said that it is crucial that
referendum participants know the consequences of secession
when they make their decision.


6. (C) Comment: Siddiq's stance that post-referendum
arrangements be negotiated concurrently with the terms of the
referendum repeats a unified message coming from the GoS.
Binding the referendum procedures and the post-referendum
issues into a package deal will definitely make their
negotiation more complicated. On the other hand,
post-referendum arrangements may be the highest priority of
the GoS, just as the referendum is the highest priority of
the SPLM, and the GoS will be reluctant to lose their

KHARTOUM 00001239 002 OF 002


negotiating leverage on the latter by reaching an early
agreement on the former. It seems likely that a referendum
in the south will have a limited chance of proceeding
peacefully until at least some of these issues are addressed
including wealth sharing, soft borders, and citizenship. End
Comment.
WHITEHEAD