USAID Acting Administrator Meeting on Elections in

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001237 SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAID PREF PGOV PHUM SOCI SMIG UN SU SUBJECT: USAID Acting Administrator Meeting on Elections in Khartoum ¶1. (SBU) Summary: On October 24, USAID Acting Administrator Alonzo Fulgham and Acting Assistant Administrator for USAID's Bureau for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance (USAID/DCHA) Susan Reichle participated in an elections and political processes roundtable in Khartoum. They met with the U.N.'s Chief Electoral Affairs Officer and USAID elections and political processes implementing partners to discuss the considerable challenges that Sudan faces to conducting free, fair and credible elections in 2010. Coupled with limited time and political will, Sudan's upcoming elections may not meet international standards. Despite these shortcomings, Sudan, buoyed by U.S. and international assistance, is poised to make significant democratic advances when compared with its own political and electoral history. International and domestic expectations appear to exceed on-the-ground realities, creating the potential for disappointment and the concomitant need to temper and manage expectations. End summary. -------------- DELEGATION MEETS POLITICAL PROCESSES EXPERTS IN KHARTOUM -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 24, USAID Acting Administrator Alonzo Fulgham and Acting USAID/DCHA Assistant Administrator Susan Reichle met in Khartoum with the U.N.'s Chief Electoral Affairs Officer and USAID elections and political processes implementing partners. These partners included the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES),the National Democratic Institute (NDI),the International Republican Institute (IRI),and The Carter Center. -------------- CHALLENGES: ELECTION ADMINISTRATION -------------- ¶3. (SBU) USAID/Sudan election implementing partners explained to the delegation that the constitution and the electoral law call for both executive and legislative elections, the simultaneity of which creates significant challenges. Given the number of levels of government, voters in the North and Darfur will cast eight ballots each. Voters in southern Sudan will cast 12 ballots each. Meanwhile, voters in Abyei, who can vote in state legislative elections in both Southern Kordofan and Warrap states, will each cast 11 ballots. IFES indicated that the National Election Commission (NEC) will have to produce more than 1,200 different ballots and distribute these ballots to the correct polling stations across the country. The number of ballots will be difficult to complete for the average Sudanese voter in the south, east, or Darfur, who has little or no experience with past elections. An exacerbating factor is the high illiteracy rate in southern Sudan, estimated at 85 percent. ¶4. (SBU) The USAID implementing partners further explained that voter registration, which begins next week, will also be a complex process in Sudan, as will electoral administration. The legal framework for credible democratic elections is incomplete, and finalization of administrative procedures related to various aspects of electoral administration continues to be delayed. For example, UNMIS and IFES pointed out that with one week left before the launch of voter registration, voter registration plans are changing almost daily, and eligible voters have yet to be informed of essential registration details such as when, where and how to register. UNMIS further noted that the referendum law is 28 months late, while the formation of the referendum commission is 24 months behind schedule. ¶5. (SBU) In addition, USAID/Sudan implementing partners manifested concern that GOS funding for election preparation would be insufficient to address the tasks at hand. They further lamented that the National Election Commission (NEC) has been only partially receptive to international expert assistance. IFES reported that, in recent weeks, some Sudanese groups have raised the possibility of an elections boycott. It is not yet clear how serious such a threat may be, as this is a tactic often utilized to gain political concessions and reforms. ¶6. (SBU) The Carter Center expressed concern over geographical flashpoints for violence, and the incomplete status of election security planning. Insecurity persists in Darfur, the Three Areas, and pockets of the south, such as Jonglei and parts of Upper Nile. (Note: The GOS-declared state of emergency for Darfur further exacerbates adverse conditions for elections in that region, significantly constraining not only physical movement but also essential freedoms, such as freedom of speech and assembly. End note.) -------------- KHARTOUM 00001237 002 OF 002 USG AND INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT IS SIGNIFICANT -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Two Congressional supplementals have provided USAID/Sudan with $70 million of funding for elections. This funding, coupled with additional non-supplemental funding, makes USAID the largest bilateral donor supporting elections and political processes in Sudan with approximately $95 million total. The United Nations Development Program Basket Fund currently includes approximately $186.4 million in pledges and committed donor funds to support elections, while UNMIS is supporting elections both through the basket fund and through direct assistance that together total more than $100 million. -------------- ELECTIONS IN SUDAN: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Discussants commented that, despite the challenges noted above, the upcoming election will likely be evaluated favorably when viewed from a historical perspective. Further, current donor investments are laying a foundation for electoral administration progress and advances in civic participation in electoral processes over a longer term. IFES noted that Sudan's last election commission mobilized approximately four million voters during previous elections, while planning for upcoming elections has been based on targets of up to 20 million. (Note: Some experts believe that actual registration ultimately may reach approximately 8-10 million, while noting that this estimate would be higher if southern states are able to successfully implement registration. Reports from southern states suggest that the NEC is not providing adequate information and funding to enable southerners to successfully organize and implement full-scale registration. End note.) Further, Sudan's 2010 elections will include domestic monitoring for the first time in the country's history. Finally, as UNMIS stressed, electoral reforms included in the 2008 National Election Act improve transparency and reduce the opportunity for electoral fraud by stipulating the counting and posting of results at each polling station. -------------- EXPECTATIONS EXCEED ON-GROUND REALITY -------------- ¶9. (SBU) All USAID/Sudan partners cautioned that international stakeholders, including the U.S. Congress and the media, tend to have high expectations for transitional elections, despite the likelihood that such elections may not meet international standards. Discussants agreed on the importance of expanding outreach to U.S. constituencies to emphasize that the path to democratic transformation in most countries requires incremental improvements in electoral processes over several electoral cycles. They surmised that, given Sudan's electoral history, international assistance is likely to lead to improvements in the 2010 electoral process in Sudan, although international standards for free and fair elections are unlikely to be met in 2010. ¶10. (U) The USAID delegation has cleared this cable. WHITEHEAD