SUDANESE RESPONSE: DEMARCHE ON DEFUSING TENSIONS

S E C R E T KHARTOUM 000123 NOFORN SIPDIS C O R R E C T E D COPY CAPTION DEPARTMENT FOR A A/S CARTER, AF/SPG, AF/C ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/02/2019 TAGS: ASEC PGOV PREL KPKO UN AU SU SUBJECT: SUDANESE RESPONSE: DEMARCHE ON DEFUSING TENSIONS BETWEEN SUDAN AND CHAD REF: A. STATE 8780 ¶B. KHARTOUM 116 ¶C. KHARTOUM 104 Classified By: CDA Alberto M. Fernandez, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NF) CDA Fernandez presented talking points in reftel to Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Al-Samani al-Wasila (in the absence of FM Alor and other NGU officials at the AU Summit) on February 1. ¶2. (S/NF) Al-Wasila agreed that escalation of tensions between Chad and Sudan was in the interest of neither country. But he expressed outrage that the GOS was roundly criticized for its defensive bombing campaign in Darfur, while Chad and JEM itself had largely escaped blame for an offensive they launched in January which led to Khartoum's response. He recalled that in December 2008, the GOS warned Western diplomats that JEM was preparing to cross the border to launch an offensive, and urged diplomatic intervention to derail the planned attack. The international community failed to exert pressure on either Chad or JEM to do so, he said. "Now we're in the unenviable position of either letting JEM roam free and attack us, or defend ourselves with military force," he said, adding that the latter was the only option. ¶3. (S/NF) Al-Wasila also dismissed claims that JEM is financed primarily by the Zaghawa Diaspora. "I'm sure US and French intelligence agencies know all about the financial and material support they receive from Chad," he scoffed. CDA urged the GOS to defend itself not only with military force but also with facts to support its accusations. Al-Wasila referred to instances in 2003 and 2008 when concrete evidence of Chadian involvement in rebel actions was produced but had no immediate answer to public claims of Chadian involvement in the latest round of fighting. "This isn't a game we're playing," responded Al-Wasila. "We're not looking for a solution just to please the international community. We need to solve this for ourselves." Al-Wasila further asserted that constant Western pressure on the GOS was creating unnecessary stress and chaos in the regime. He lamented that the international community was quick to dole out blame, yet slow to take prescriptive steps to alleviate the crisis, pointing to President Sarkozy's unfulfilled promise to expel Abdul Wahid if he refused to commit to peace talks. The US also has tremendous capacity if it wants to play a role, said Al-Wasila, a role which would be welcomed by Sudan. ¶4. (S/NF) Comment: The aggressive JEM incursion into South Darfur, coming right on the heels of high-level meetings in Washington, has incensed the Khartoum regime (although Al Wasila himself is from a faction of the opposition DUP party that reached an agreement with the NCP to participate in the GNU). As a result of the JEM attack, there are tens of thousands of additional IDPs, NGOs were forced to withdraw from Muhajaria, and on February 1 UNAMID itself considered withdrawing following written requests from the government and weathering bombs dropped less than one kilometer from its camp. Post recommends that the Department issue a statement calling for an immediate cease-fire, calling on JEM to withdraw from South Darfur (and for the GOS to allow JEM's safe passage back to North Darfur),to return to the status quo ante of Muhajeria returning to SLM/MM control and supporting UNAMID's critical role in Muhajaria. An instruction from President Deby to JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim to withdraw from South Darfur is critical and should be pursued by the US. If effective, this intervention could prevent a Sudan-supported Chadian rebel attack into Chad within the coming weeks and blunt a SAF offensive in Muhajeria against JEM expected within hours. End comment. FERNANDEZ