SPLM MAKING PROGRESS ON CPA ISSUES BUT REJECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KHARTOUM 001212

SIPDIS

NSC FOR MGAVIN, LETIM
DEPT PLS PASS USAID FOR AFR/SUDAN
ADDIS ABABA ALSO FOR USAU

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2019
TAGS: PGOV PINR SU
SUBJECT: SPLM MAKING PROGRESS ON CPA ISSUES BUT REJECTION
OF TURNOUT REQUIREMENT COULD JEOPARDIZE AGREEMENT ON LAW

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY DCM MARK ASQUINO FOR REASONS 1.4 B and D.


1. (SBU) Summary: On October 23, while hosting a visit of the
South African Vice President, the Sudan People's Liberation
Movement (SPLM) held an emergency Polit-Bureau meeting
chaired by Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS) President
Salva Kiir. The meeting focused on the SPLM boycott of the
National Assembly, the referendum law and the next steps for
the SPLM in the bilateral and trilateral processes. The SPLM
has publicly rejected the two-thirds turnout requirement on
the referendum, and announced its continued boycott of the
National Assembly until reform of the criminal code and other
laws is undertaken. SPLM leadership told us that they are
making progress on outstanding CPA issues and plan to
streamline the many different CPA processes under one person
appointed by Kiir. They also made another call for
Interagency Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD)
involvement. Similarly on October 26, National Congress
Party (NCP) President Advisor Nafi Ali Nafi traveled to Juba
to meet with NCP members. The NCP have responded angrily to
the SPLM decision to reject the two-thirds turnout
requirement. End Summary.

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Referendum and Elections
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2. (SBU) On October 23, Minister of Presidential Affairs Luka
Biong told Charge and POLOFF that President Salva Kiir had
called an emergency Polit-Bureau meeting to discuss the SPLM
boycott in the National Assembly as well as address
outstanding CPA implementation issues. Biong told us that
the SPLM is developing a comprehensive strategy for CPA
implementation, but would like to see another round of
trilaterals soon to address outstanding issues. He also
explained that the SPLM drafted the Abyei and Popular
Consultation Laws, but believes the SPLM boycott at the
National Assembly will continue.


3. (SBU) The SPLM publicly announced on October 24 that they
would not accept the two-thirds referendum turnout
requirement proposed by the NCP, and would continue to
boycott the National Assembly until real progress is made on
reforming laws to ensure democratization and free and fair
elections. The SPLM agreed to a simple majority - 50 percent
plus one - for both referendum turnout requirements and
approval of either a union or secession outcome. SPLM
Secretary General Pagan Amun publicly stated that the SPLM
boycott would continue until all the required laws are
brought into a package with a timetable. The laws include
those legislating the 2011 referendum, Abyei region, popular
consultations in the two areas, reform of the criminal code,
trade unions and the national security sector.

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Single Track - Nhial Taking Lead
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4. (SBU) The Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, Samson
Kwaja, told Charge and POLOFF on October 26 that during the
Polit-Bureau meeting the SPLM had decided to streamline all
the CPA processes under one person appointed by Kiir. The
appointed person would oversee the bilateral process, the
trilateral process as well as the Crisis Management
Committee. While Kiir has not appointed anyone yet, Kwaja
intimated that Minister of SPLA Affairs Nhial Deng Nhial
would soon be named by Kiir to oversee this new process.

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More IGAD Involvement
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5. (SBU) Kwaje also called on the USG to involve the IGAD
countries in the next round of trilaterals, as the SPLM would
like to see IGAD more engaged. Moreover, Kwaje criticized
the new U.S. policy on Sudan, in that it never specifically
mentioned IGAD involvement. He told us that IGAD countries
had already raised their concerns with the SPLM, with the
countries stating that the U.S. had left them out on purpose.
The most recent IGAD Council of Ministers meeting was
postponed on October 21, when the NCP failed to send a
delegation to Kampala. IGAD Council of Ministers rescheduled
the meeting to be held in Djibouti for November 16-17.

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NCP Visit to the South and Reaction to SPLM

KHARTOUM 00001212 002 OF 002


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6. (SBU) On October 23, the NCP presidential Advisor Nafi Ali
Nafi traveled to Juba to meet with NCP members in Southern
Sudan. This visit came two days after the NCP failed to send
a representative to attend the latest IGAD Council of
Ministers meeting on CPA Implementation Process on October

21. Kwaja told us that the NCP had harshly criticized the
SPLM's rejection of the proposed two-thirds referendum
turnout requirement.


7. (C) Comment: Our analysis indicates that the referendum
act hinges on percentages, with the elections census issue
hinging on a political deal maintaining the SPLM's desired 30
percent of executive and legislative power. The reaction of
the NCP, which has already ceded on a number of points and
earlier believed it has signed a package deal, remains
uncertain. Kwaja's comments on changing CPA leadership
mid-stream are unconfirmed, and the political ramifications
in Juba of such a change remain unsounded. End comment.
WHITEHEAD